Biology subjects

Westergren, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Westergren, M..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Rapid evolutionary responses to climate change in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) despite widespread adaptive lag

Climate change is profoundly affecting species worldwide and poses a major threat to their long-term persistence. Although trees may have the potential for rapid adaptation to changing climates, empirical evidence remains limited, and whether these long-lived organisms can adapt quickly enough to keep pace with ongoing climate change is still an open question. To investigate real-time responses to contemporary climate change, we combined genomic data from 82 range-wide populations of the widespread tree Pinus pinaster Ait. with intensive sampling of two successive cohorts from two natural populations. Using an original genotype-environment association (GEA) approach to quantify climate (mal)adaptation, we found that most individuals from both target populations showed evidence of an adaptive lag to current climatic conditions, and are predicted to face substantial risk of maladaptation under future climates. Importantly, changes in genomic composition at climate-associated loci between cohorts were consistent with rapid evolutionary responses to ongoing climate change and could not be explained by neutral demographic processes alone, as supported by forward-time genetic simulations. We also observed a lower realised genetic load in the younger cohort, suggesting that the dynamics of deleterious mutations may change with climatic pressure. Our work provides evidence suggesting genetic responses to contemporary climate change within a single generation, including signals of rapid evolutionary changes in genomic composition at climate-associated loci and signatures of purifying selection, despite widespread adaptive lag to current climates. These findings challenge the view that trees only respond slowly to environmental change and highlight the need to integrate evolutionary dynamics into predictive models of species persistence under future climates.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2026

Demographic history shapes forest tree vulnerability to climate change

Demographic history is expected to play a central role in shaping population vulnerability to climate change through its lasting effects on effective population sizes and genetic connectivity. However, existing studies report contrasting outcomes, and the consequences of alternative demographic histories have seldom been assessed concurrently across multiple taxa. Here, we analysed population genomic data from six of the major European forest tree species to address this gap. Across species, genetic isolation reduced adaptive potential, as reflected in lower standing genetic diversity. Greater genetic differentiation was also associated with increased maladaptation to climate, whereas the purge or accumulation of deleterious mutations depended on the severity of past demographic events. Finally, the beneficial effects of gene flow were evidenced across the six species by more optimal climate adaptation in highly connected populations. Altogether, our results provide valuable insights into how genetic differentiation, reflecting the combined effects of genetic drift and limited historical gene flow, influences current vulnerability of forest tree populations to climate change.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Genomic signatures of climate-driven (mal)adaptation in an iconic conifer, the English yew (Taxus baccata L.)

The risk of climate maladaptation is increasing for numerous species, including trees. Developing robust methods to assess population maladaptation remains a critical challenge. Genomic offset approaches aim to predict climate maladaptation by characterising the genomic changes required for populations to maintain their fitness under changing climates. In this study, we assessed the risk of climate maladaptation in European populations of English yew (Taxus baccata), a long-lived tree with a patchy distribution across Europe, the Atlas Mountains, and the Near East, where many populations are small or threatened. We found evidence suggesting local climate adaptation by analysing 8,616 SNPs in 475 trees from 29 European T. baccata populations, with climate explaining 18.1% of genetic variance and 100 unlinked climate-associated loci identified via genotype- environment association (GEA). Then, we evaluated the deviation of populations from the overall gene-climate association to assess variability in local adaptation or different adaptation trajectories across populations and found the highest deviations in low latitude populations. Moreover, we predicted genomic offsets and successfully validated these predictions using fitness proxies assessed in plants from 26 populations grown in a comparative experiment. Finally, we integrated information from current local adaptation, genomic offset, historical genetic differentiation and effective migration rates to show that Mediterranean and high-elevation T. baccata populations face higher vulnerability to climate change than low-elevation Atlantic and continental populations. Our study demonstrates the practical use of the genomic offset framework in conservation genetics, offers insights for its further development, and highlights the need for a population-centred approach that incorporates additional statistics and data sources to credibly assess climate vulnerability in wild plant populations.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2023

Conserving genetic diversity during climate change:Niche marginality and discrepant monitoring capacity in Europe

Genetic monitoring of populations currently attracts interest in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity but needs long-term planning and investments. Genetic diversity has been largely neglected in biodiversity monitoring, and when addressed is treated separately, detached from other conservation issues, such as habitat alteration due to climate change. Genetic monitoring supports the conservation and management of fisheries, game, and threatened populations. It also can contribute to the assessment of predicted and realized impacts of climate change, and their management. We report the first accounting of genetic monitoring efforts among countries in Europe (their genetic monitoring capacity, GMC) to determine where GMC suggests the combination of national infrastructure, political support and resources for continued and expanded monitoring. Overlaying GMC with areas where species ranges approach current and future climate niche limits (i.e., niche marginality) helps identify whether GMC coincides with anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity. Our analysis suggests that country area extent, financial resources, and conservation policy influence GMC, high values of which inconsistently match joint species patterns of climate niche marginality. Populations at niche margins likely hold genetic diversity that is important to adaptation to changing climate, and our results illuminate the need in Europe for expanded genetic monitoring across the climate gradients occupied by species, a need arguably greatest in southeastern European countries.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Synchronous effective population size changes and genetic stability of forest trees through glacial cycles

The effect of past environmental changes on the demography and genetic diversity of natural populations remains a contentious issue and has rarely been investigated across multiple, phylogenetically distant species. Here, we performed comparative population genomic analyses and demographic inferences for seven widely distributed and ecologically contrasted European forest tree species based on concerted sampling of 164 populations across their natural ranges. For all seven species, the effective population size, Ne, increased or remained stable over many glacial cycles and up to 15 million years in the most extreme cases. Hence, surprisingly, the drastic environmental changes associated with the Pleistocene glacial cycles have had little impact on the level of genetic diversity of dominant forest tree species, despite major shifts in their geographic ranges. Based on their trajectories of Ne over time, the seven tree species can be divided into three major groups, highlighting the importance of life history and range size in determining synchronous variation in genetic diversity, over time. Altogether, our results indicate that forest trees were able to retain their evolutionary potential over very long periods of time despite strong environmental changes. One-Sentence SummaryPopulation genomic analyses reveal that forest trees retained their evolutionary potential over the Quaternary.

evolutionary biology↗