Biology subjects

Wakeley, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Wakeley, J..

10 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

A classification of structured coalescent processes with migration, conditional on the population pedigree

Recent analyses of the effects that organismal genealogies or pedigrees of populations have on times to common ancestry for samples of genetic data are extended to cases of population subdivision and migration. Traditional coalescent models marginalize over pedigrees. A finding of a pedigree effect implies that data analysis and interpretation should not be based on the corresponding traditional coalescent model but rather on a coalescent model obtained by conditioning on the pedigree. We apply a straightforward test based on the distribution of pairwise coalescence times to four previously described scenarios of subdivision and migration. These scenarios are defined by the relative magnitudes of four parameters: the number of the local populations or demes, the deme size, the migration fraction, and the probability that migration can occur at all. We find pedigree effects in three scenarios. In two, the effect is weak if the deme size is large. The one scenario without a pedigree effect corresponds to the well known structured-coalescent model. The one scenario with a persistent pedigree effect even in the limit as the deme size tends to infinity involves long periods without gene flow interrupted by pulses of migration. We illustrate our results using simulations and numerical analysis.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Bursts of coalescence within population pedigrees whenever big families occur

We consider a simple diploid population-genetic model with potentially high variability of offspring numbers among individuals. Specifically, against a backdrop of Wright-Fisher reproduction and no selection there is an additional probability that a big family occurs, meaning that a pair of individuals has a number of offspring on the order of the population size. We study how the pedigree of the population generated under this model affects the ancestral genetic process of a sample of size two at a single autosomal locus without recombination. Our population model is of the type for which multiple-mergers coalescent processes have been described. We prove that the conditional distribution of the pairwise coalescence time given the random pedigree converges to a limit law as the population size tends to infinity. This limit law may or may not be the usual exponential distribution of the Kingman coalescent, depending on the frequency of big families. But because it includes the number and times of big families it differs from the usual multiple-merger coalescent models. The usual multiple-merger coalescent models are seen as describing the ancestral process marginal to, or averaging over, the pedigree. In the limiting ancestral process conditional on the pedigree, the intervals between big families can be modeled using the Kingman coalescent but each big family causes a discrete jump in the probability of coalescence. Analogous results should hold for larger samples and other population models. We illustrate these results with simulations and additional analysis, highlighting their implications for inference and understanding of multi-locus data.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Correlation of coalescence times in a diploid Wright-Fisher model with recombination and selfing

The correlation among the gene genealogies at different loci is crucial in biology, yet challenging to understand because such correlation depends on many factors including genetic linkage, recombination, natural selection and population structure. Based on a diploid Wright-Fisher model with a single mating type and partial selfing for a constant large population with size N, we quantify the combined effect of genetic drift and two competing factors, recombination and selfing, on the correlation of coalescence times at two linked loci for samples of size two. Recombination decouples the genealogies at different loci and decreases the correlation while selfing increases the correlation. We obtain explicit asymptotic formulas for the correlation for four scaling scenarios that depend on whether the selfing probability and the recombination probability are of order O(1/N) or O(1) as N tends to infinity. Our analytical results confirm that the asymptotic lower bound in [King, Wakeley, Carmi (TPB 2018)] is sharp when the loci are unlinked and when there is no selfing, and provide a number of new formulas for other scaling scenarios that have not been considered before. We present asymptotic results for the variance of Tajimas estimator of the population mutation rate for infinitely many loci as N tends to infinity. When the selfing probability is of order O(1) and is equal to a positive constant s for all N and if the samples at both loci are in the same individual, then the variance of the Tajimas estimator tends to s/2 (hence remains positive) even when the recombination rate, the number of loci and the population size all tend to infinity.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

TRAILS: tree reconstruction of ancestry using incomplete lineage sorting

Genome-wide genealogies of multiple species carry detailed information about demographic and selection processes on individual branches of the phylogeny. Here, we introduce TRAILS, a hidden Markov model that accurately infers time-resolved population genetics parameters, such as ancestral effective population sizes and speciation times, for ancestral branches using a multi-species alignment of three species and an outgroup. TRAILS leverages the information contained in incomplete lineage sorting fragments by modelling genealogies along the genome as rooted three-leaved trees, each with a topology and two coalescent events happening in discretized time intervals within the phylogeny. Posterior decoding of the hidden Markov model can be used to infer the ancestral recombination graph for the alignment and details on demographic changes within a branch. Since TRAILS performs posterior decoding at the base-pair level, genome-wide scans based on the posterior probabilities can be devised to detect deviations from neutrality. Using TRAILS on a human-chimp-gorilla-orangutan alignment, we recover speciation parameters and extract information about the topology and coalescent times at high resolution. Author summaryDNA sequences can be compared to reconstruct the evolutionary history of different species. While the ancestral history is usually represented by a single phylogenetic tree, speciation is a more complex process, and, due to the effect of recombination, different parts of the genome might follow different genealogies. For example, even though humans are more closely related to chimps than to gorillas, around 15% of our genome is more similar to the gorilla genome than to the chimp one. Even for those parts of the genome that do follow the same human-chimp topology, we might encounter a last common ancestor at different time points in the past for different genomic fragments. Here, we present TRAILS, a new framework that utilizes the information contained in all these genealogies to reconstruct the speciation process. TRAILS infers unbiased estimates of the speciation times and the ancestral effective population sizes, improving the accuracy when compared to previous methods. TRAILS also reconstructs the genealogy at the highest resolution, inferring, for example, when common ancestry was found for different parts of the genome. This information can also be used to detect deviations from neutrality, effectively inferring natural selection that happened millions of years ago. We validate the method using extensive simulations, and we apply TRAILS to a human-chimp-gorilla multiple genome alignment, from where we recover speciation parameters that are in good agreement with previous estimates.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Latent mutations in the ancestries of alleles under selection

We consider a single genetic locus with two alleles A1 and A2 in a large haploid population. The locus is subject to selection and two-way, or recurrent, mutation. Assuming the allele frequencies follow a Wright-Fisher diffusion and have reached stationarity, we describe the asymptotic behaviors of the conditional gene genealogy and the latent mutations of a sample with known allele counts, when the count n1 of allele A1 is fixed, and when either or both the sample size n and the selection strength || tend to infinity. Our study extends previous work under neutrality to the case of non-neutral rare alleles, asserting that when selection is not too strong relative to the sample size, even if it is strongly positive or strongly negative in the usual sense ( [->] -{infty} or [->] +{infty}), the number of latent mutations of the n1 copies of allele A1 follows the same distribution as the number of alleles in the Ewens sampling formula. On the other hand, very strong positive selection relative to the sample size leads to neutral gene genealogies with a single ancient latent mutation. We also demonstrate robustness of our asymptotic results against changing population sizes, when one of || or n is large.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2022

Recurrent mutation in the ancestry of a rare variant

Recurrent mutation produces multiple copies of the same allele which may be co-segregating in a population. Yet most analyses of allele-frequency or site-frequency spectra assume that all observed copies of an allele trace back to a single mutation. We develop a sampling theory for the number of latent mutations in the ancestry of a rare variant, specifically a variant observed in relatively small count in a large sample. Our results follow from the statistical independence of low-count mutations, which we show to hold for the standard neutral coalescent or diffusion model of population genetics as well as for more general coalescent trees. For populations of constant size, these counts are given by the Ewens sampling formula. We develop a Poisson sampling model for populations of varying size, and illustrate it using new results for site-frequency spectra in an exponentially growing population. We apply our model to a large data set of human SNPs and use it to explain dramatic differences in site-frequency spectra across the range of mutation rates in the human genome.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Assessing the Performance of qpAdm: A Statistical Tool for Studying Population Admixture

qpAdm is a statistical tool for studying the ancestry of populations with histories that involve admixture between two or more source populations. Using qpAdm, it is possible to identify plausible models of admixture that fit the population history of a group of interest and to calculate the relative proportion of ancestry that can be ascribed to each source population in the model. Although qpAdm is widely used in studies of population history of human (and non-human) groups, relatively little has been done to assess its performance. We performed a simulation study to assess the behavior of qpAdm under various scenarios in order to identify areas of potential weakness and establish recommended best practices for use. We find that qpAdm is a robust tool that yields accurate results in many cases, including when data coverage is low, there are high rates of missing data or ancient DNA damage, or when diploid calls cannot be made. However, we caution against co-analyzing ancient and present-day data, the inclusion of an extremely large number of reference populations in a single model, and analyzing population histories involving extended periods of gene flow. We provide a user guide suggesting best practices for the use of qpAdm.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2019

Bayesian Estimation of Population Size Changes by Sampling Tajima’s Trees

The large state space of gene genealogies is a major hurdle for inference methods based on Kingmans coalescent. Here, we present a new Bayesian approach for inferring past population sizes which relies on a lower resolution coalescent process we refer to as \"Tajimas coalescent\". Tajimas coalescent has a drastically smaller state space, and hence it is a computationally more efficient model, than the standard Kingman coalescent. We provide a new algorithm for efficient and exact likelihood calculations for data without recombination, which exploits a directed acyclic graph and a correspondingly tailored Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We compare the performance of our Bayesian Estimation of population size changes by Sampling Tajimas Trees (BESTT) with a popular implementation of coalescent-based inference in BEAST using simulated data and human data. We empirically demonstrate that BESTT can accurately infer effective population sizes, and it further provides an efficient alternative to the Kingmans coalescent. The algorithms described here are implemented in the R package phylodyn, which is available for download at https://github.com/JuliaPalacios/phylodyn.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2018

A Two-Player Iterated Survival Game

We describe an iterated game between two players, in which the payoff is to survive a number of steps. Expected payoffs are probabilities of survival. A key feature of the game is that individuals have to survive on their own if their partner dies. We consider individuals with hardwired, unconditional behaviors or strategies. When both players are present, each step is a symmetric two-player game. The overall survival of the two individuals forms a Markov chain. As the number of iterations tends to infinity, all probabilities of survival decrease to zero. We obtain general, analytical results for n-step payoffs and use these to describe how the game changes as n increases. In order to predict changes in the frequency of a cooperative strategy over time, we embed the survival game in three different models of a large, well-mixed population. Two of these models are deterministic and one is stochastic. Offspring receive their parents type without modification and fitnesses are determined by the game. Increasing the number of iterations changes the prospects for cooperation. All models become neutral in the limit (n [->] {infty}). Further, if pairs of cooperative individuals survive together with high probability, specifically higher than for any other pair and for either type when it is alone, then cooperation becomes favored if the number of iterations is large enough. This holds regardless of the structure of pairwise interactions in a single step. Even if the single-step interaction is a Prisoners Dilemma, the cooperative type becomes favored. Enhanced survival is crucial in these iterated evolutionary games: if players in pairs start the game with a fitness deficit relative to lone individuals, the prospects for cooperation can become even worse than in the case of a single-step game.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Genomic architecture and introgression shape a butterfly radiation

We here pioneer a low-cost assembly strategy for 20 Heliconiini genomes to characterize the evolutionary history of the rapidly radiating genus Heliconius. A bifurcating tree provides a poor fit to the data, and we therefore explore a reticulate phylogeny for Heliconius. We probe the genomic architecture of gene flow, and develop a new method to distinguish incomplete lineage sorting from introgression. We find that most loci with non-canonical histories arose through introgression, and are strongly underrepresented in regions of low recombination and high gene density. This is expected if introgressed alleles are more likely to be purged in such regions due to tighter linkage with incompatibility loci. Finally, we identify a hitherto unrecognized inversion, and show it is a convergent structural rearrangement that captures a known color pattern switch locus within the genus. Our multi-genome assembly approach enables an improved understanding of adaptive radiation.

evolutionary biology↗