Biology subjects

Vogt-Vincent, N. S.

Publications and source records attributed to Vogt-Vincent, N. S..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Growth rate and adaptive capacity, not just thermal tolerance, are critical for long-term coral persistence under climate change

It is widely assumed that corals with a narrower thermal tolerance and greater bleaching susceptibility are at most risk under anthropogenic climate change. Using a simple eco-evolutionary model, we investigate coral reef futures under climate change through a factorial approach, across millions of simulations. We find that, while corals with low thermal tolerance are indeed at greatest risk of population collapse in the short term, coral population persistence beyond 2050 is instead primarily determined by the maximum population growth rate and additive genetic variance. Anthropogenic climate change exceeds the thermal tolerance of all corals, so adaptive capacity and the ability to rapidly recover from disturbance are critical for long-term persistence. As a result, it is plausible that branching corals could fare better than slower growing, stress-tolerant counterparts in the long term, but only if they can weather the greater acute threats over the coming decades. Since the response timescale of corals to climate change varies considerably across taxa, and due to the particular importance of genetic variance in facilitating evolutionary adaptation, sustainable restoration approaches should aim to conserve a broad range of coral species and genotypes, rather than aiming to optimise one particular trait.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Anthropogenic climate change will likely outpace coral range expansion

Past coral range expansions suggest that high-latitude environments may serve as refugia, potentially buffering tropical biodiversity loss due to climate change. We explore this possibility for corals globally, using a dynamical metacommunity model incorporating temperature, light intensity, pH, and four distinct, interacting coral assemblages. This model reasonably reproduces the observed distribution and recent decline of corals across the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean. Our simulations suggest that there is a mismatch between the timescales of coral reef decline and range expansion under future predicted climate change. Whereas the most severe declines in coral cover will likely occur within 60-80 years, significant tropical coral range expansion requires centuries. The absence of large-scale coral refugia in the face of rapid anthropogenic climate change emphasises the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and mitigate non-thermal stressors for corals, both in the tropics and high-latitudes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Coral reef potential connectivity in the southwest Indian Ocean

The tropical southwest Indian Ocean is a coral biodiversity hotspot, with remote reefs physically connected by larval dispersal through eddies and a complex set of equatorial and boundary currents. Based on multidecadal, 2 km resolution hydrodynamic and larval dispersal models that incorporate temporal variability in dispersal, we find that powerful zonal currents, current bifurcations, and geographic isolation act as leaky dispersal barriers, partitioning the southwest Indian Ocean into clusters of reefs that tend to consistently retain larvae, and therefore gene flow, over many generations. Whilst exceptionally remote, the Chagos Archipelago can broadcast (and receive) considerable numbers of larvae to (and from) reefs across the wider west Indian Ocean, most significantly exchanging larvae with the Inner Islands of Seychelles, but also the Mozambique Channel region. Considering multi-generational dispersal indicates that most coral populations in the southwest Indian Ocean are physically connected within a few hundred steps of dispersal. These results suggest that regional biogeography and population structure can be largely attributed to geologically recent patterns of larval dispersal, although some notable discrepancies indicate that palaeogeography and environmental suitability also play an important role. The model output and connectivity matrices are available in full, and will provide useful physical context to regional biogeography and connectivity studies, as well as supporting marine spatial planning efforts.

ecology↗