Vesk, P. A. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2020

Predicting species and community responses to global change in Australian mountain ecosystems using structured expert judgement

Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which has already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large-scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we used a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands were predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species-level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species were predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water-centric life-cycles were expected to decline in abundance than other species. In the face of rapid change and a paucity of data, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management, although this approach does not diminish the importance of collecting long-term ecological data. Article Impact StatementExpert knowledge is used to quantify the adaptive capacity and thus, the risk posed by global change, to Australian mountain flora and fauna.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Indigenous plants promote insect biodiversity in urban greenspaces

The contribution of urban greenspaces to support biodiversity and provide benefits for people is increasingly recognised. However, ongoing management practices still favour (1) vegetation oversimplification, often limiting greenspaces to lawns and tree canopy rather than multi-layered vegetation that includes under and midstorey; and (2) the use of nonnative plant species. These practices likely hinder the potential of greenspaces to sustain indigenous biodiversity, particularly for taxa like insects, that rely on plants for food and habitat. Yet, little is known about which plant species may maximise positive outcomes for taxonomically and functionally diverse insect communities in urban greenspaces. Additionally, while urban environments are expected to experience high rates of introductions, quantitative assessments of the relative occupancy of indigenous vs. introduced insect species in greenspace are rare - hindering understanding of how greenspace management may promote indigenous biodiversity while limiting the establishment of introduced insects. Using a hierarchically replicated study design across 15 public parks, we recorded occurrence data from 552 insect species on 133 plant species - differing in planting design element (lawn, midstorey and tree canopy), midstorey growth form (forbs, lilioids, graminoids and shrubs) and origin (nonnative, native and indigenous) - to assess: (1) the relative contributions of indigenous and introduced insect species and (2) which plant species sustained the highest number of indigenous insects. Our data indicates that the insect community was predominately composed of indigenous rather than introduced species. Our findings further highlight the core role of multi-layered vegetation in sustaining high insect biodiversity in urban areas, with indigenous midstorey and canopy representing key elements to maintain rich and functionally diverse indigenous insect communities. Intriguingly, graminoids supported the highest indigenous insect richness across all studied growth forms by plant origin groups. Taken together, our study emphasise the opportunity posed by indigenous understory and midstorey plants, particularly indigenous graminoids in our study area, to promote indigenous insect biodiversity in urban greenspaces. Our work provides a blueprint and stimulus for built-environment professionals to incorporate into their practice plant species palettes that foster a larger presence of indigenous over regionally native or nonnative plant species, whilst incorporating a broader mixture of midstorey growth forms.

ecology↗