Verschueren, S. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

Matching lynx population estimates to management scale: conservation science vs politics in the western Swiss Alps

Reliable population estimates are essential for wildlife management, yet monitoring schemes often do not match the administrative scale at which decisions are made. We illustrate this challenge using the Eurasian lynx in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, where official state monitoring is fragmented across three reference areas surveyed in different years. We analyzed three winters (2023-2026) of independent, canton-wide camera trap data, recording 899 independent lynx captures (27, 31 and 34 adults per winter). Lynx distribution and reproduction concentrated in the Northwest and connected to the thriving Pre-alpine populations. Density modelling for 2025/2026 estimated 37 independent lynx (95% CI: 26-52) on the whole cantonal territory, corresponding to a density of 1.09 (0.77-1.56) individuals per 100 km2. These estimates are substantially below the figures improperly extrapolated from a cross-cantonal reference area and conveyed by political authorities. Future lynx management decisions should be rooted in scientifically sound, scale-relevant information.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Guidelines for evaluating the success of large carnivore reintroductions

Anthropogenic impacts have led to widespread species decline and extirpation, thereby compelling a global movement to protect and regenerate biodiversity through holistic ecosystem restoration including reintroductions. Yet, despite the increasing practice of conservation-driven reintroduction efforts over the past century, peer-reviewed literature and policy providing criteria with which to evaluate reintroduction stages and efficacy remain limited. Without these comprehensive and quantifiable metrics of relative success, such drastic conservation intervention strategies cannot be objectively evaluated nor compared, hindering the advancement of restoration as a discipline. Herein, we systematically reviewed 227 large carnivore reintroductions of 14 terrestrial mammal species across 23 countries since 1930 to contextualize global efforts to date, and from these, have developed a standardized framework to evaluate reintroduction success. We further retrospectively determined the extent to which existing studies met these criteria towards identifying current knowledge gaps and guide future reintroduction efforts. Most large carnivore records were of Felidae (70%) reintroduced into closed systems (69%) across southern Africa (70%). Our proposed framework provides a full suite of stages, indicators, and targets for reintroduction evaluation, which, when retrospectively applied to reviewed studies, indicated that at least one-third lacked sufficient information to effectively evaluate and compare reintroduction outcomes. This comprehensive and prioritized framework provides novel transparency and scalability to large carnivore reintroduction programs, which is increasingly required to secure the sustained support of impacted communities and stakeholder networks. Moreover, the incorporation of this framework into future practice and policy as an applied tool may directly benefit the recovery of at least 30 large carnivore species, while its principles may be applied more broadly across taxonomic groups for faunal rewilding and global ecosystem restoration.

ecology↗