Biology subjects

Vasseur, F.

Publications and source records attributed to Vasseur, F..

18 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Environmental complexity constrains evolutionary adaptation across taxa

Complex environments combining multiple stressors are the new norm worldwide. Adaptive evolution will be critical to population persistence under these combined challenges, but how environmental complexity affects the pace of evolution remains poorly understood. Using a meta-experimental evolution approach, we exposed 14 species, from bacteria to unicellular eukaryotes and plants, to single stressors and their pairwise combinations for multiple generations, while keeping the overall stress level comparable. Populations evolving under combined stressors tended to have lower fitness increase in the selective environments, higher fitness reductions in the control environment, and shallower relation between initial maladaptation and fitness gain, than under single stressors. However, these responses varied with species and stressor type. Accounting for such constraints on evolutionary dynamics should prove crucial for the management of biodiversity. Significance StatementA pressing challenges for modern science and society in the face of ongoing global change is understanding what limits the capacity of living organisms to adapt to complex environments combining multiple stressors. To answer to this question, we conducted a large-scale meta-experimental evolution design across a diversity of organisms, exposing them for multiple generations to either single or combined-stress treatments. Combined stressors led to less adaptive fitness gain than single stressors, and imposed additional costs through reduced fitness in non-stressful conditions. This unique combination of meta-experimental approach with a careful distinction between environmental complexity and overall stress allowed us to gain robust quantitative evidence on how environmental complexity can impact the pace of evolution.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Scaling law links plant growth variation to grain yield in wheat stands

Growth rate, a fundamental biological trait influencing plant resource use, scales predictably with plant mass, following remarkably consistent allometric power laws shaped by biophysical constraints and natural selection. However, how these laws apply to crop plants shaped by artificial selection, and how they manifest in agronomic traits, remains undefined. Under controlled greenhouse conditions, we quantified the relationship between plant mass and growth rate in 195 European winter wheat cultivars. We uncovered genetic variation in allometry linked to plant size, where increased leaf allocation and faster development elevated allometric exponents. Phenotypic and genetic analyses revealed adaptive strategies, ranging from large, slow-growing genotypes that support reproductive initiation to small, fast-growing genotypes that enhance reproductive effort. A shared genetic basis--associated with Photoperiod response-1 (Ppd-1)--linked growth allometry in the greenhouse to genotype-by-environment interactions for grain yield in field trials. This variation in growth allometry, shaped by breeding in diverse environments, reflects strategies that enhance adaptation to weather conditions. Our findings demonstrate that growth allometry is biologically robust and agronomically important because it scales to wheat yield under diverse, realistic field conditions.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Local trade-offs shape flower size evolution across Arabidopsis thaliana distribution.

The diversification of flowers, largely driven by mutualistic interactions with animal pollinators, has generated remarkable variation in floral form and size and is thought to have driven the evolutionary radiation of angiosperms. Here, we investigate the geographic variation in reproductive organ growth in the self-fertilizing species Arabidopsis thaliana, where the loss of pollinator dependence is predicted to favour reduced floral investment through resource reallocation. We find extensive variation in flower size underpinned by a polygenic architecture, in which derived alleles both increase and decrease petal size and show signatures of positive selection. Nevertheless, the evolutionary direction of flower size differs across regions, reflecting environmentally mediated shifts in the relationship between flower size and seed production. Strong purifying selection at the climatic margins favours smaller flowers, whereas relaxed environmental constraints in more suitable habitats allow the emergence and persistence of both small and large-flower variants. This biogeographic pattern extends to other life-history traits, highlighting how environmental heterogeneity and resource allocation constraints shape evolutionary trajectories and maintain phenotypic diversity in selfing lineages.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Adaptation to climate in the native and introduced ranges of a cosmopolitan plant

Climate change and the global spread of non-native species are two of the most significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystem function. Both these phenomena subject populations to novel conditions, either in space (species introductions) or in time (climate change), yet the role of adaptation in how populations respond to these rapid environmental shifts is poorly understood. We conducted a large-scale trans-continental common garden experiment using white clover (Trifolium repens, Fabaceae) to test whether adaptive evolution to spatiotemporal variation in climate could contribute to the ecological success of one of the most widespread plant species in the world. Individuals from 96 populations of Trifolium repens (white clover) from both its native (Europe) and introduced (North America) ranges were planted into four experimental common gardens located in northern (Uppsala, Sweden) and southern (Montpellier, France) Europe, and northern (Mississauga, Canada) and southern (Lafayette, USA) North America. We recorded plant sexual and clonal fitness in each common garden and assessed whether the strength of local adaptation differed between the native and introduced ranges and whether populations are rapidly adapting to climate change. Results show that local adaptation was only evident when populations were transplanted into common gardens located in the same range (native or introduced) from which they originated and was driven by stronger selection (due to climatic factors rather than herbivory) at lower latitudes in both ranges. Our results indicate rapid local adaptation across a large latitudinal gradient in introduced T. repens populations, along with an associated adaptation cost when transplanted back into the native range. We also find evidence of an adaptation lag in the northern common garden in the introduced range, with plants from historically warmer climates exhibiting the greatest fitness. These findings support two major conclusions: 1) white clover can rapidly adapt to spatial variation in climate in its introduced range as well as the native range, and 2) despite rapid adaptation to novel environments, introduced white clover populations are not keeping pace with rapid climate change. Overall, our results provide insight into the role of adaptation in facilitating the ecological success of non-native species in a rapidly changing world. Open Research StatementData are provided for peer review. All data involved in this study is available on the GitHub page for LJA (https://github.com/ljalbano/transcontinental_common_garden).

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Structural variants underlie parallel adaptation following global invasion

Rapid adaptation during invasion has historically been considered limited and unpredictable. We leverage whole-genome sequencing of >2600 plants across six continents to investigate the relative roles of colonization history and adaptation during the worldwide invasion of Trifolium repens. Introduced populations contain high levels of genetic variation with independent colonization histories evident on different continents. Five large structural variants on three chromosomes exist as standing genetic variation within the native range, and exhibit strong signatures of parallel climate-associated adaptation across continents. Common gardens in the native and introduced ranges demonstrate that three structural variants exhibit patterns of selection consistent with local adaptation across each range. Our results provide strong evidence that rapid and parallel adaptation during invasion is caused by large-effect structural variants introduced throughout the world. Significance StatementBiological invasions occur over short timescales and introductions are often hypothesized to include limited genetic diversity, making the role of adaptation in invasion success controversial. We demonstrate that the invasion of a human-commensal species, Trifolium repens, likely stems from multiple, diverse introductions with significant evidence of climate-associated adaptation following introduction. The genetic basis of adaptation is most strongly linked to five chromosomal rearrangements that each span hundreds of genes - matching theoretical predictions that large-effect variants are key to the initial stages of adaptation to novel environments. Chromosomal rearrangements have remarkably parallel signatures of adaptation across different introductions despite initial colonization from different areas of Europe. Our study highlights the impact of globalization and rapid adaptation for the invasion success of human commensal species.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

miR472 deficiency enhances Arabidopsis thaliana defence without reducing seed production.

After having co-existed in plant genomes for at least 200 million years, the products of microRNA (miRNA) and Nucleotide-Binding Leucine Rich Repeat protein (NLR) genes formed a regulatory relationship in the common ancestor of modern gymnosperms and angiosperms. From then on, DNA polymorphisms occurring at miRNA target sequences within NLR transcripts must have been compensated by mutations in the corresponding mature miRNA sequence, therefore maintaining that regulatory relationship. The potential evolutionary advantage of such regulation remains largely unknown and might be related to two mutually non-exclusive scenarios: miRNA-dependent regulation of NLR levels might prevent defence mis-activation with negative effects on plant growth and reproduction; or reduction of active miRNA levels in response to pathogen derived molecules (PAMPS and silencing suppressors) might rapidly release otherwise silent NLR transcripts for rapid translation and thereby enhance defence. Here, we used Arabidopsis thaliana plants deficient for miR472 function to study the impact of releasing its NLR targets on plant growth and reproduction and on defence against the fungal pathogen Plectospharaella cucumerina. We show that miR472 regulation has a dual role, participating both in the tight regulation of plant defence and growth. MIM472 lines, with reduced active miR472, are more resistant to pathogens and, correlatively, have reduced relative growth compared to wild-type plants. However, despite MIM472 lines flower at the same time than their wild-type, the end of their reproductive phase is delayed, and they exhibit higher adult biomass, resulting in similar seed yield as the wild-type. Our study highlights how negative consequences of defence activation might be compensated by changes in phenology and that miR472 reduction is an integral part of plant defence responses.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Ecological and genetic trade-offs drive Arabidopsis thaliana range expansion in Europe

How trade-offs between traits constrain adaptation to contrasted environments is critical to understand the distribution range of a given species. In Arabidopsis thaliana, genetic analyses recently revealed that a group of genotypes successfully recolonized Europe from its center after the last glaciation, outcompeting older lineages and leaving them only at the distribution margins, where environmental conditions are more stressing. However, whether trade-offs between traits related to dispersal, competition, and stress tolerance explain the success and persistence of different lineages across the species geographic range remains an open question. Here, we compared the genetic and phenotypic differentiation between 72 ecotypes originating from three geographical groups in Europe (North, South and Center). We measured key traits related to fecundity, dispersal ability, competition tolerance, and stress tolerance, and used genomic data to infer the effect of selection on these traits. We showed that a trade-off between plant fecundity and seed mass constrains the diversification of A. thaliana in Europe. In particular, the success of the cosmopolitan genotypes that recolonized Europe can be explained by their higher dispersal ability at the expense of their competitive ability and stress tolerance. Inversely, peripheral ecotypes exhibited the opposite trait syndrome: high competition and stress tolerance but low dispersal ability. Moreover, peripheral genotypes tend to differentiate from central ones at genes involved in dispersal and competitive traits such as seed mass. Combining ecological and genomic approaches, our study demonstrated the role of key ecological trade-offs as evolutionary drivers of the distribution of plant populations along a geographic gradient. SignificanceAcross geographic gradients, differential adaptive phenotypes among populations can reduce the risk of local extinctions and favor niche dynamics. However, a phenotypic advantage often comes at a cost. For instance, the competition-colonization trade-off is proposed as an important driver of plant interspecific diversity, but its role for local adaptation at the intraspecific level is still unclear. Using the broadly-distributed species Arabidopsis thaliana, we evaluate how ecological trade-offs have shaped the demography and evolution of central and peripheral populations in its native geographic gradient. Our study demonstrates that the competition-colonization trade-off is responsible of the spatially-structured phenotypic variation of A. thaliana across its geographical range. Our study highlights seed mass as a key trait for plant adaptation across environmental conditions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Plant-herbivore interactions: experimental demonstration of genetic variability in plant-plant signaling

O_LIPlant-herbivore interactions mediated by plant-plant signaling were documented in different species. Here, we tested if herbivore foraging activity on plants was influenced by plants prior contact with a damaged plant and if the effect of such plant-plant signaling was variable across genotypes. C_LIO_LIWe filmed snails during one hour on two plants differing only in a prior contact with a damaged plant or not. We replicated eight times the experiment on 113 natural genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana. We recorded snails first choice, and measured its first duration on a plant, the proportion of time spent on both plants and leaf consumption. C_LIO_LIOn average, snails spent more time on plants that experienced a prior contact with a damaged plant, and consumed them more. However, plant-plant signaling effect on snail behavior was variable across genotypes. Genome-wide association studies revealed that a small number of genetic polymorphisms related to stress coping ability and jasmonate pathway explained this variation. C_LIO_LIPlant-plant signaling modified the foraging activity of herbivores in A. thaliana. Depending on the plant genotype, plant-plant signaling made undamaged plants more repulsive or attractive to snails. This finding questions the theoretical basement of the evolution of plant-herbivore interactions mediated by plant-plant signaling. C_LI HighlightPlant-plant signaling differently affects snail foraging activity depending on genetic variations in A.thaliana. These findings question the theoretical basement of the evolution of plant-herbivore interactions mediated by plant-plant signaling.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Monitoring rapid evolution of plant populations at scale with Pool-Sequencing

The change in allele frequencies within a population over time represents a fundamental process of evolution. By monitoring allele frequencies, we can analyze the effects of natural selection and genetic drift on populations. To efficiently track time-resolved genetic change, large experimental or wild populations can be sequenced as pools of individuals sampled over time using high-throughput genome sequencing (called the Evolve & Resequence approach, E&R). Here, we present a set of experiments using hundreds of natural genotypes of the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana to showcase the power of this approach to study rapid evolution at large scale. First, we validate that sequencing DNA directly extracted from pools of flowers from multiple plants -- organs that are relatively consistent in size and easy to sample -- produces comparable results to other, more expensive state-of-the-art approaches such as sampling and sequencing of individual leaves. Sequencing pools of flowers from 25-50 individuals at [~]40X coverage recovers genome-wide frequencies in diverse populations with accuracy r > 0.95. Secondly, to enable analyses of evolutionary adaptation using E&R approaches of plants in highly replicated environments, we provide open source tools that streamline sequencing data curation and calculate various population genetic statistics two orders of magnitude faster than current software. To directly demonstrate the usefulness of our method, we conducted a two-year outdoor evolution experiment with A. thaliana to show signals of rapid evolution in multiple genomic regions. We demonstrate how these laboratory and computational Pool-seq-based methods can be scaled to study hundreds of populations across many climates.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Into the range: a latitudinal gradient or a center-margins differentiation of ecological strategies in Arabidopsis thaliana?

Background and AimsDetermining within-species large-scale variation in phenotypic traits is central to elucidate the drivers of species ranges. Intraspecific comparisons offer the opportunity to understand how trade-offs and biogeographical history constrain adaptation to contrasted environmental conditions. Here we test whether functional traits, ecological strategies and phenotypic plasticity in response to abiotic stress vary along a latitudinal or a center-margins gradient within the native range of Arabidopsis thaliana. MethodsThe phenotypic outcomes of plant adaptation at the center and margins of its geographic range were experimentally examined in 30 accessions from southern, central and northern Europe. The variation of traits related to stress tolerance, resource use, colonization ability as well as survival and fecundity was determined in response to high temperature (34{degrees}C) or frost (- 6{degrees}C), in combination with response to water deficit. Key ResultsBoth evidence for a latitudinal and a center-margins differentiation was found. Traits related to the acquisitive/conservative strategy trade-off varied along a latitudinal gradient. Northern accessions presented a greater survival to stress than central and southern accessions. Traits related to a colonization-competition trade-off followed a center-margin differentiation. Central accessions presented a higher phenotypic plasticity and trait values associated with a higher colonization ability than northern and southern accessions which instead had a higher competition ability. ConclusionsIntraspecific phenotypic variation helps us understand how the distribution range has evolved in Arabidopsis thaliana, which is shaped both by climate and the population migratory history. We advocate to consider intraspecific trait variation in species range studies instead of species means only as classically done in macroecology.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

The genetic interaction of REVOLUTA and WRKY53 links plant development, senescence, and immune responses

In annual plants, tight coordination of successive developmental events is of primary importance to optimize performance under fluctuating environmental conditions. The recent finding of the genetic interaction of WRKY53, a key senescence-related gene with REVOLUTA, a master regulator of early leaf patterning, raises the question of how early and late developmental events are connected. Here, we investigated the developmental and metabolic consequences of an alteration of the REVOLUTA and WRKY53 gene expression, from seedling to fruiting. Our results show that REVOLUTA critically controls late developmental phases and reproduction while inversely WRKY53 determines vegetative growth at early developmental stages. We further show that these regulators of distinct developmental phases frequently, but not continuously, interact throughout ontogeny and demonstrated that their genetic interaction is mediated by the salicylic acid (SA). Moreover, we showed that REVOLUTA and WRKY53 are keys regulatory nodes of development and plant immunity thought their role in SA metabolic pathways, which also highlights the role of REV in pathogen defence. Together, our findings demonstrate how late and early developmental events are tightly intertwined by molecular hubs. These hubs interact with each other throughout ontogeny, and participate to the interplay between plant development and immunity.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Transcriptional natural variation at FLM induces synergistic pleiotropy in Arabidopsis thaliana

Investigating the evolution of complex phenotypes and the underlying molecular bases of their variation is critical to understand how organisms adapt to the environment. We used leaf growth as a model trait as it is highly integrative of internal and external cues and relies on functions at different levels of the plant organization. Applying classical quantitative genetics on a recombinant inbred line population derived from a Can-0 x Col-0 cross, we identified the MADS-box transcription factor FLOWERING LOCUS M (FLM) as a player of the phenotypic variation for leaf growth and colour. Interestingly, we showed that allelic variation at FLM modulates plant growth strategy along the leaf economics spectrum, a trade-off between resource acquisition and resource conservation observable across thousands of plant species. We demonstrated that the functional differences at FLM relies on a single intronic substitution, disturbing transcript splicing and leading to a low expression of the active FLM transcript. Using phenotypic and climatic data across Arabidopsis natural populations, our work shows how noncoding genetic variation of a single gene may be adaptive through synergistic pleiotropy.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Increasing plant group productivity through latent genetic variation for cooperation

Historic yield advances in the major crops have to a large part been achieved by selection for improved productivity of groups of plant individuals such as high-density stands. Research suggests that such improved group productivity depends on "cooperative" traits (e.g. erect leaves, short stems) that - while beneficial to the group - decrease individual fitness under competition. This poses a problem for some traditional breeding approaches, especially when selection occurs at the level of individuals, because "selfish" traits will be selected for and reduce yields in high-density monocultures. One approach therefore has been to select individuals based on ideotypes with traits expected to promote group productivity. However, this approach is limited to architectural and physiological traits whose effects on growth and competition are relatively easy to anticipate. Here, we developed a general and simple method for the discovery of alleles promoting cooperation in plant stands. Our method is based on the game-theoretical premise that alleles increasing cooperation incur a cost to the individual but benefit the monoculture group. Testing the approach using the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, we found a major effect locus where the rarer allele was associated with increased cooperation and productivity in high-density stands. The allele likely affects a pleiotropic gene, since we find that it is also associated with reduced root competition but higher resistance against disease. Thus, even though cooperation is considered evolutionarily unstable, conflicting selective forces acting on a pleiotropic gene might maintain latent genetic variation for it in nature. Such variation, once identified in a crop, could be rapidly leveraged in modern breeding programs and provide efficient routes to increase yields.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Leaf economics guides slow-fast adaptation across the geographic range of A. thaliana

The slow-fast continuum describes how resource allocation constrains life-history strategies in many organisms. In plants, it is reflected by a trade-off at the leaf level between the rate of carbon assimilation and lifespan, the so-called Leaf Economics Spectrum (LES). However, it is still unclear how the LES is connected to the slow-fast syndrome, and reflects adaptation to climate. Here, we measured growth, morpho-physiological and life-history traits at both leaf and whole-plant levels in 384 natural accessions of Arabidopsis thaliana. We examined the extent to which the LES continuum parallels the slow-fast continuum, and compared trait variation to neutral genetic differentiation between lineages. We found that the LES is tightly linked to variation in whole-plant functioning, relative growth rate and life history. A genetic analysis further suggested that phenotypic differentiation is linked to the evolution of different slow-fast strategies in contrasted climates. Together, our findings shed light on the physiological bases of the slow-fast continuum, and its role for plant adaptation to climate.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Adaptive diversification of growth allometry in the plant Arabidopsis thaliana

Seed plants vary tremendously in size and morphology. However, variation and covariation between plant traits may at least in part be governed by universal biophysical laws and biological constants. Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) posits that whole-organismal metabolism and growth rate are under stabilizing selection that minimizes the scaling of hydrodynamic resistance and maximizes the scaling of resource uptake. This constrains variation in physiological traits and in the rate of biomass accumulation, so that they can be expressed as mathematical functions of plant size with near constant allometric scaling exponents across species. However, observed variation in scaling exponents questions the evolutionary drivers and the universality of allometric equations. We have measured growth scaling and fitness traits of 451 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions with sequenced genomes. Variation among accessions around the scaling exponent predicted by MST correlated with relative growth rate, seed production and stress resistance. Genomic analyses indicate that growth allometry is affected by many genes associated with local climate and abiotic stress response. The gene with the strongest effect, PUB4, has molecular signatures of balancing selection, suggesting that intraspecific variation in growth scaling is maintained by opposing selection on the trade-off between seed production and abiotic stress resistance. Our findings support a core MST prediction and suggest that variation in allometry contributes to local adaptation to contrasting environments. Our results help reconcile past debates on the origin of allometric scaling in biology, and begin to link adaptive variation in allometric scaling to specific genes.\n\nSignificance statementAre there biological constants unifying phenotypic diversity across scales? Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) predicts mathematical regularity and constancy in the allometric scaling of growth rate with body size across species. Here, we show that adaptation to climate in Arabidopsis thaliana is associated with local strains that substantially deviate from the values predicted by MST. This deviation can be linked to increased stress tolerance at the expense of seed production, and it occurs through selection on genes that are involved in abiotic stress response and that are geographically correlated with climatic conditions. This highlights the evolutionary role of allometric diversification and helps establish the physiological bases of plant adaptation to contrasting environments.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Image-based methods for phenotyping growth dynamics and fitness in large plant populations

BackgroundThe model species Arabidopsis thaliana has extensive resources to investigate intraspecific trait variability and the genetic bases of ecologically relevant traits. However, the cost of equipment and software required for high-throughput phenotyping is often a bottleneck for large-scale studies, such as mutant screening or quantitative genetics analyses. Simple tools are needed for the measurement of fitness-related traits, like relative growth rate and fruit production, without investment in expensive infrastructures. Here, we describe methods that enable the estimation of biomass accumulation and fruit number from the analysis of rosette and inflorescence images taken with a regular camera.\n\nResultsWe developed two models to predict plant dry mass and fruit number from the parameters extracted with the analysis of rosette and inflorescence images. Predictive models were trained by sacrificing growing individuals for dry mass estimation, and manually measuring a fraction of individuals for fruit number at maturity. Using a cross-validation approach, we showed that quantitative parameters extracted from image analysis predicts more 90% of both plant dry mass and fruit number. When used on 451 natural accessions, the method allowed modelling growth dynamics, including relative growth rate, throughout the life cycle of various ecotypes. Estimated growth-related traits had high heritability (0.65 < H2 < 0.93), as well as estimated fruit number (H2 = 0.68). In addition, we validated the method for estimating fruit number with rev5, a mutant with increased flower abortion.\n\nConclusionsThe method we propose here is based on the automated computerization of plant images with ImageJ, and subsequent statistical modelling in R. It allows plant biologists to measure growth dynamics and fruit number in hundreds of individuals with simple computing steps that can be repeated and adjusted to a wide range of laboratory conditions. It is thus a flexible toolkit for the measurement of fitness-related traits in large plant populations.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2017

A rainfall-manipulation experiment with 517 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions

The gold standard for studying natural selection and adaptation in the wild is to quantify lifetime fitness of individuals from natural populations that have been grown together in a common garden, or that have been reciprocally transplanted. By combining fitness values with species traits and genome sequences, one can infer selection coefficients at the genetic level. Here we present a rainfall-manipulation experiment with 517 whole-genome sequenced natural accessions of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana spanning the global distribution of the species. The experiments were conducted in two field stations in contrasting climates, in the Mediterranean and in Central Europe, where we built rainout shelters and simulated high and low rainfall. Using custom image analysis we quantified fitness- and phenology-related traits for 23,154 pots, which contained about 14,500 plants growing independently, and over 310,000 plants growing in small populations (max. 30 plants). This large field experiment dataset, which associates fitness and ecologically-relevant traits with genomes, will provide an important resource to test eco-evolutionary genetic theories and to understand the potential evolutionary impacts of future climates on an important plant model species.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Genomic basis and evolutionary potential for extreme drought adaptation in Arabidopsis thaliana

Because earth is currently experiencing unprecedented climate change, it is important to predict how species will respond to it. However, geographically-explicit predictive studies frequently ignore that species are comprised of genetically diverse individuals that can vary in their degree of adaptation to extreme local environments; properties that will determine the species ability to withstand climate change. Because an increase in extreme drought events is expected to challenge plant communities with global warming, we carried out a greenhouse experiment to investigate which genetic variants predict surviving an extreme drought event and how those variants are distributed across Eurasian Arabidopsis thaliana individuals. Genetic variants conferring higher drought survival showed signatures of polygenic adaptation, and were more frequently found in Mediterranean and Scandinavian regions. Using geoenvironmental models, we predicted that Central European populations might lag behind in adaptation by the end of the 21st century. Further analyses showed that a population decline could nevertheless be compensated by natural selection acting efficiently over standing variation or by migration of adapted individuals from populations at the margins of the species distribution. These findings highlight the importance of within-species genetic heterogeneity in facilitating an evolutionary response to a changing climate.\n\nOne-sentence summary\"Future genetic changes in A. thaliana populations can be forecast by combining climate change models with genomic predictions based on experimental phenotypic data.\"

evolutionary biology↗