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Valderrama, W.

Publications and source records attributed to Valderrama, W..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Diverse behavioural responses of vampire bats to human disturbance revealed by state-space modelling of sparse GPS data.

In Latin America, management of vampire bats has had inconsistent effects on the spread of lethal rabies infections from bats to humans and livestock. Positive and negative effects on rabies are hypothesised to reflect changes in bat roost fidelity and behaviour following human disturbance, but high landscape complexity has precluded monitoring bat movement in the areas where rabies transmission and bat management activity are most intense. We used animal-borne GPS tags to track 93 vampire bats in a rabies hotspot in the Peruvian Andes, where limited satellite visibility led to partial observation of animal locations. Immediately after capture, handling and tag application, 43% of bats, particularly males and bats with longer forearms, disappeared from the study area, suggesting a rapid roost switching response. Among the remaining 55 bats, a Bayesian state-space model revealed high individual heterogeneity on the disturbance night but on average increased flight distances. Over the remaining 8-night study period, bats gradually remained closer to the roost. These disturbance-driven shifts provide mechanisms to explain how bat disturbance can both accelerate and decelerate rabies spatial spread. More broadly, we present a modelling framework to infer key movement metrics in landscapes where GPS data limitations challenge conventional movement models.

ecology↗

Dynamics of influenza transmission in vampire bats revealed by longitudinal monitoring and a large-scale anthropogenic perturbation

Interrupting pathogen transmission between species is a priority strategy to mitigate zoonotic threats. However, avoiding counterproductive interventions requires knowing animal reservoirs of infection and the dynamics of transmission within them, neither of which are easily ascertained from the cross-sectional surveys which currently dominate investigations into newly discovered viruses. We used biobanked sera and metagenomic data to reconstruct the transmission of recently discovered bat-associated influenza virus (BIV) over 12 years in three zones of Peru. Mechanistic models fit under a Bayesian framework, which enabled joint inference from serological and molecular data, showed that common vampire bats maintain BIV independently of the currently assumed fruit bat reservoir through immune waning and seasonal transmission pulses. A large-scale vampire bat cull targeting rabies incidentally halved BIV transmission, confirming vampire bats as maintenance hosts. Our results show how combining field studies, perturbation responses and multi-data type models can elucidate pathogen dynamics in nature and reveal pathogen-dependent effects of interventions.

ecology↗

Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir.

Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, knowledge of the true number and locations of vampire bat colonies precludes informed allocation of measures intended to limit lethal rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the complete spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental covariates by fitting a Log Gaussian Cox Process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 47% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified landscape correlates of roost establishment. Our model estimated that 1,795 roosts (76%) remain undiscovered and identified hotspots of undetected roosts in currently rabies-free areas, implying high risk for viral incursion. Incorporating the locations of undetected roosts improved spatial predictions of rabies spillover to livestock, revealed areas with disproportionate underreporting to surveillance systems, and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously estimated. We provide a robust approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis.

ecology↗