Search bioRxiv⌕ Search

Biology subjects

Ureta, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Ureta, C..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Greenland's thaw pushes the biodiversity crisis

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to sustained global warming over the last decades1. This is already reshaping the distribution of biodiversity across the world and can lead to the occurrence of large-scale singular events, such as the melting of polar ice sheets2,3. The potential impacts of such a melting event on species persistence across taxonomic groups - in terms of magnitude and geographic extent - remain unexplored. Here we assess impacts on biodiversity of global warming and melting of Greenlands ice sheet on the distribution of 21,146 species of vascular plants and tetrapods across twelve megadiverse countries. We show that high global warming would lead to widespread reductions in species geographic ranges (median range loss, 35-78%), which are magnified (median range loss, 95-99%) with the added contribution of Greenlands melting and its potentially large impact on oceanic circulation and regional climate changes. Our models project a decline in the geographical extent of species hotspots across countries (median reduction, 48-95%) and a substantial alteration of species composition in the near future (mean temporal dissimilarity, 0.26-0.89). These results imply that, in addition to global warming, the influence of Greenlands melting can lead to the collapse of biodiversity across the globe, providing an added domino in its cascading effects.

ecology↗

One hundred years of climate change in Mexico

Spatial assessments of historical climate change are of paramount importance to focus research and conservation efforts. Despite the fact that there are global climatic databases available at high spatial resolution, they present some shortcomings to evaluate historic trends of climate change and their impacts on biodiversity. These databases span over a single period in the late 20th and early 21th centuries and their quality and reliability in many regions is compromise because they have not been produce with all information available for all regions. Therefore, in this contribution we developed climatic surfaces for Mexico for three periods that cover most of the 20th and early 21th centuries: t1-1940 (1910-1949), t2-1970(1950-1979) and t3-2000 (1980-2009), and characterize climate change rates of the bio-geographic provinces of Mexico via a linear trend analysis of monthly values and a Mann-Kendall analysis. Our results indicate that rates of change and trends have not been uniform across Mexico: Nearctic provinces had suffered higher and more consistent trends of changethan southern tropical regions. Central and southern provinces cooled down at the beginning of the 20th century, but warmed up consistently since the 1970s. Precipitation has generally increased throughout the country, being more notorious in northern provinces. We aim to provide modellers with a set of climate surfaces that may help decision-making to improve management strategies for biodiversity conservation.

ecology↗