Biology subjects

Twidwell, D.

Publications and source records attributed to Twidwell, D..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Annual Cultivated Extent and Agricultural Land Use Expansion across the Central Grasslands of North America, 1996-2021

Accurate monitoring of cropland dynamics in North American grasslands is essential for assessing biodiversity threats, guiding sustainable land management, and ensuring food security amid rapid environmental change. We developed a 30-meter resolution dataset capturing annual active and cumulative cropland (1996 to 2021) across the central grasslands of North America using an Attention U-Net convolutional neural network. Our bias-corrected estimates reveal that while active cropland grew by only 3% (+3.51 {+/-} 1.32 million ha, p > 0.1), the cumulative cropland footprint expanded by 17% (+20.64 {+/-} 0.93 million ha, p < 0.05) relative to the baseline (1996-2000), reaching 142.21 {+/-} 4.84 million ha by 2021. This divergence indicates substantial new conversion or recultivation of previously restored grasslands, occurring at a consistent rate of 0.98 {+/-} 0.04 million ha per year (p < 0.001). Mexico showed the largest relative gain in cumulative cropland area, expanding by nearly half (48%, 1.69 {+/-} 0.06 million ha, p < 0.05). By distinguishing between active and cumulative cropland extents, our dataset enables differentiation between short-term, intermittent cultivation and longer-term land-use legacies, allowing for more nuanced assessments of agricultures cumulative effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services at the biome scale. This approach provides critical information for conservation planning and sustainable land management across North American grasslands.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Estimating rangeland fractional cover and canopy gap size class with Sentinel-2 imagery

Rangelands are extensive ecosystems, providing important ecosystem services while undergoing continuous change. As a result, improved monitoring technologies can help better characterize vegetation change. Satellite remote sensing has proven effective in this regard, tracking vegetation dynamics at broad and fine scales. We leveraged the spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of Sentinel-2 satellites to estimate fractional cover and canopy gap across rangelands of the western United States. We produced annual, 10 m spatial resolution estimates of fractional cover and canopy gap size class for years 2018 to 2024. Fractional cover estimates include that of common plant functional types (annual forb and grass, bareground, littler, perennial forb and grass, shrub, tree) and select genera (including invasive annual grass species, pinyon-juniper species, and sagebrush species); canopy gap size classes include gap sizes 25 to 50, 51 to 100, 101 to 200, and greater than 200 cm. We make these data available as Cloud Optimized GeoTIFFs, organized as 75x75 km tiles covering the 17 western states of the United States.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Biome-scale woody encroachment threatens conservation potential and sustainability of U.S. rangelands

O_LIRangelands of the United States provide ecosystem services that benefit society and rural economies. Native tree encroachment is often overlooked as a primary threat to rangelands due to the slow pace of tree cover expansion and the positive public perception of trees. Still, tree encroachment fragments these landscapes and reduces herbaceous production, thereby threatening habitat quality for grassland wildlife and the economic sustainability of animal agriculture. C_LIO_LIRecent innovations in satellite remote sensing permit the tracking of tree encroachment and the corresponding impact on herbaceous production. We analyzed tree cover change and herbaceous production across the western United States from 1990 to 2019. C_LIO_LIWe show that tree encroachment is widespread in U.S. rangelands; absolute tree cover has increased by 50% (77,323 km2) over 30 years, with more than 25% (684,852 km2) of U.S. rangeland area experiencing tree cover expansion. Since 1990, 302 {+/-} 30 Tg of herbaceous biomass have been lost. Accounting for variability in livestock biomass utilization and forage value reveals that this lost production is valued at between $4.1 - $5.6 billion U.S. dollars. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications: The magnitude of impact of tree encroachment on rangeland loss is similar to conversion to cropland, another well-known and primary mechanism of rangeland loss in the U.S. Prioritizing conservation efforts to prevent tree encroachment can bolster ecosystem and economic sustainability, particularly among privately-owned lands threatened by land-use conversion. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Improving Landsat predictions of rangeland fractional cover with multitask learning and uncertainty

O_LIOperational satellite remote sensing products are transforming rangeland management and science. Advancements in computation, data storage, and processing have removed barriers that previously blocked or hindered the development and use of remote sensing products. When combined with local data and knowledge, remote sensing products can inform decision making at multiple scales. C_LIO_LIWe used temporal convolutional networks to produce a fractional cover product that spans western United States rangelands. We trained the model with 52,012 on-the-ground vegetation plots to simultaneously predict fractional cover for annual forbs and grasses, perennial forbs and grasses, shrubs, trees, litter, and bare ground. To assist interpretation and to provide a measure of prediction confidence, we also produced spatiotemporal-explicit, pixel-level estimates of uncertainty. We evaluated the model with 5,780 on-the-ground vegetation plots removed from the training data. C_LIO_LIModel evaluation averaged 6.3% mean absolute error and 9.6% root mean squared error. Evaluation with additional datasets that were not part of the training dataset, and that varied in geographic range, method of collection, scope, and size, revealed similar metrics. Model performance increased across all functional groups compared to the previously produced fractional product. C_LIO_LIThe advancements achieved with the new rangeland fractional cover product expand the management toolbox with improved predictions of fractional cover and pixel-level uncertainty. The new product is available on the Rangeland Analysis Platform (https://rangelands.app/), an interactive web application that tracks rangeland vegetation through time. This product is intended to be used alongside local on-the-ground data, expert knowledge, land use history, scientific literature, and other sources of information when making interpretations. When being used to inform decision-making, remotely sensed products should be evaluated and utilized according to the context of the decision and not be used in isolation. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Low contribution of rare species to resilience and adaptive capacity in novel spatial regimes arising from biome shifts caused by global change

Human activity causes biome shifts that alter biodiversity and spatial resilience patterns, ultimately challenging conservation. Rare species, often considered vulnerable to change and endangered, can be a critical element of resilience by providing adaptive capacity in response to disturbances. However, little is known about changes in rarity and dominance patterns of communities once a biome transitions into a novel spatial regime, and how this affects conservation. We used time series modeling to identify species rarity and dominance patterns in an expanding terrestrial (southern) spatial regime in the North American Great Plains and another (northern) regime that will become encroached by the southern regime in the near future. In this approach, presumably rare and abundant species show stochastic and deterministic dynamics, respectively. We specifically assessed how stochastic species of the northern spatial regime influence the resilience and adaptive capacity of a novel spatial regime once it has been encroached by the southern regime by either becoming deterministic or staying stochastic. Using 47 years (1968 - 2014) of breeding bird survey data and a space-for-time substitution, we found half of the stochastic species from the northern regime to be either deterministic or stochastic in the southern regime. However, the overall contribution of these species to the community of the southern regime was low, manifested in marginal contributions to resilience and adaptive capacity of this regime. Also, none of these species were of conservation concern, suggesting limited need for revised species conservation action in the novel spatial regime. From a systemic perspective our result suggest that while stochastic species can potentially compensate for the loss of dominant species after disturbances and maintain the system in its current regime, they may only marginally contribute to resilience and adaptive capacity in a new spatial regime after fundamental ecological changes have occurred.

ecology↗