Biology subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Trevor Bedford.
This is not meant as a comprehensive report, but is instead intended as particular observations that may be of relevance. Please also note that observed patterns reflect the GISAID database and may not be entirely representative of underlying dynamics. All analyses are based on the nextflu pipeline [1] with continual updates posted to Correspondence:http://nextflu.org.
The 2013-2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Extensive collaborative sequencing projects have produced a large collection of over 1600 Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5% of known cases, unmatched for any single human epidemic. In a comprehensive analysis of this entire dataset, we reconstruct in detail the history of migration, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region. We test the association of geography, climate, administrative boundaries, demography and culture with viral movement among 56 administrative regions. Our results show that during the outbreak viral lineages moved according to a classic gravity model, with more intense migration between larger and more proximate population centers. Despite a strong attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, localized cross-border transmission beforehand had already set the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures relatively ineffective in curbing the epidemic. We use this empirical evidence to address why the epidemic did not spread into neighboring countries, showing that although these regions were susceptible to developing significant outbreaks, they were also at lower risk of viral introductions. Finally, viral genome sequence data uniquely reveals this large epidemic to be a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help inform approaches to intervention in such epidemics in the future.
The 2014 epidemic of the Ebola virus is governed by a genetically diverse viral population. In the early Sierra Leone outbreak, a recent study has identified new mutations that generate genetically distinct sequence clades [1]. Here we find evidence that major Sierra Leone clades have systematic differences in growth rate and reproduction number. If this growth heterogeneity remains stable, it will generate major shifts in clade frequencies and influence the overall epidemic dynamics on time scales within the current outbreak. Our method is based on simple summary statistics of clade growth, which can be inferred from genealogical trees with an underlying clade-specific birth-death model of the infection dynamics. This method can be used to perform realtime tracking of an evolving epidemic and identify emerging clades of epidemiological or evolutionary significance.