Biology subjects

Travis, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Travis, J..

11 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Competition among kin generates balancing selection in a wild population

If an individuals niche is determined by its genotype, then competition for limiting resources should be most intense among individuals of the same genotype. Theory predicts this will act to maintain genetic variation, but whether this mechanism operates under natural conditions is unclear. Using long-term observations of a population of free-living Trinidadian guppies, we asked (i) whether competition was strongest between kin, and (ii) whether this process maintained genetic variation. Competition between kin was 1.5-1.8 times stronger than that between non-kin. This contributed to balancing selection: after [~]10 generations, variation was 29% higher than expected under drift. Our results show that relatedness can play a major role in structuring ecological competition, with broader consequences for theories of inclusive fitness. One-sentence summaryHeritable variation is maintained due to resource competition being more intense among kin.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Temporal genomics reveals rapid parallel adaptation in experimental populations of Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata)

Understanding the genomic basis of early adaptation is a central question in evolutionary biology. Although there is ongoing debate about whether early adaptation is more likely to be driven by polygenic responses or by loci of large effect, few studies of natural populations have been able to address this problem. Furthermore, early adaptation to a novel environment often coincides with founding events, making it difficult to disentangle neutral effects from adaptive genomic changes. Here we take advantage of the unique in situ guppy experimental system, in which we established replicate populations by translocating guppies from a high predation locality to four low predation localities. We present whole genome sequencing from the source population and the four experimental populations, sampled after [~]8-10 generations (first period), and again at [~]18-22 generations (second period). We find signatures of inbreeding only in the first period, despite documented population crashes in the second period. We show genome-wide dynamics of selection as well as selective change at single loci and uncover new targets of selection. Overall, we found signatures of selection at all levels; genome-wide, chromosome, and individual windows are more repeatable among replicates in the first period than in the second period.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Noise and determinism in Trinidadian guppy population dynamics

Natural populations are often nonlinear and exhibit substantial variability. A central question is how stochasticity interacts with density-dependent regulation to shape population stability. We address this using four long-term time series of Trinidadian guppies and find that their dynamics are well described by a stochastic logistic model with multiplicative environmental noise. The model predicts that stochasticity does not merely add fluctuations around deterministic carrying capacity, but alters the equilibrium structure. Using stochastic bifurcation theory, we show that increasing noise shifts the most-probable population size below the deterministic equilibrium and can push populations closer to a noise-induced bifurcation, even when mean growth rates remain positive. The effects of stochasticity across populations align with known ecological differences among streams, particularly the effects of light level and seasonality. The analysis also identifies populations most sensitive to perturbations, which are not detected by standard early warning indicators. Temporal and spectral analyses further show that intrinsic growth rate governs local recovery, while seasonal variation interacts with density-dependence to shape longer-term population fluctuations. Together, our results show that stochasticity can alter resilience and vulnerability by reshaping ecological stability landscapes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Warming-induced sex bias fuels deceptive conservation success in sea turtles

Global warming threatens species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) by risking extreme offspring sex-ratio bias. In sea turtles, warmer incubation conditions produce more females. Such biases can transiently inflate apparent population growth before male scarcity undermines reproduction, possibly leading to population extinction. Here, we combine 15 years of field monitoring, drone-based sex-ratio surveys, Argos telemetry, and eco-physiological modelling to test whether rising temperatures underpin the rapid increase in loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting in Cabo Verde, one of the worlds largest populations. Historical air temperature, lagged by one generation, predicts current nest counts, consistent with a climate-driven, female-biased population. Drone surveys reveal an approximately 9:1 female-to-male breeding sex ratio across two consecutive breeding seasons, and simulations reproduce observed nesting trajectories under historical warming but not under null (no-warming) scenarios. Extending the analysis to 28 global loggerhead populations reveals consistent links between temperatures, latitude, and nesting trends. Our results identify warming-induced sex ratio bias as a key, yet deceptive, driver of apparent recovery, highlighting the need to reassess conservation success through the lens of demography of TSD species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Density dependent environments can select for extremes of body size

Body size variation is an enigma. We do not understand why species achieve the sizes they do, and this means we also do not understand the circumstances under which gigantism or dwarfism is selected. We develop size-structured integral projection models to explore evolution of body size and life history speed. We make few assumptions and keep models simple: all functions remain constant across models except for the one that describes development of body size with age. We set sexual maturity to occur when size attains 80% of the asymptotic size, which is typical of a large mammal, and allow negative density dependence to only affect either reproduction or juvenile survival. Fitness - the quantity that is maximized by adaptive evolution - is carrying capacity in our models, and we are consequently interested in how it changes with size at sexual maturity, and how this association varies with development rate. The simple models generate complex dynamics while providing insight into the circumstances when extremes of body size evolve. The direction of selection leading to either gigantism or dwarfism crucially depends on the proportion of the population that is sexually mature, which in turn depends on how the development function determines the survivorship schedule. The developmental trajectories consequently interact with size-specific survival or reproductive rates to determine the best life history and the optimal body size emerges from that interaction. These dynamics result in trade-offs between different components of the life history, with the form of the trade-off that emerges depending upon where in the life history density dependence operates most strongly. Empirical application of the approach we develop has potential to help explain the enigma of body size variation across the tree of life.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

The evolution of size-dependent competitive interactions promotes species coexistence

O_LITheory indicates that competing species coexist in a community when intraspecific competition is stronger than interspecific competition. When body size determines the outcome of competitive interactions between individuals, coexistence depends also on how resource use and the ability to compete for these resources change with body size. Testing coexistence theory in size-structured communities, therefore, requires disentangling the effects of size-dependent competitive abilities and niche shifts. C_LIO_LIHere, we tested the hypothesis that the evolution of species and size-dependent competitive asymmetries increased the likelihood of coexistence between interacting species. C_LIO_LIWe experimentally estimated the effects of size-dependent competitive interactions on somatic growth rates of two interacting fish species, Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) and killifish (Rivulus hartii). We controlled for the effects of size-dependent changes in the niche at two competitive settings representing the early (allopatric) and late (sympatric) evolutionary stages of a killifish-guppy community. We fitted the growth data to a model that incorporates species and size-dependent competitive asymmetries to test whether changes in the competitive interactions across stages increased the likelihood of species coexistence from allopatry to sympatry. C_LIO_LIWe found that guppies are competitively superior to killifish but were less so in sympatric populations. The decrease in the effects of interspecific competition on the fitness of killifish and increase in the interspecific effect on guppies fitness increased the likelihood that sympatric guppies and killifish will coexist. However, while the competitive asymmetries between the species changed consistently between allopatry and sympatry between drainages, the size-dependent competitive asymmetries varied between drainages. C_LIO_LIThese results demonstrate the importance of integrating evolution and trait-based interactions into the research of how species coexistence. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Life histories as mosaics: plastic and genetic components differ among traits that underpin life-history strategies

Life-history variation reflects phenotypic variation across suites of traits. Differences among life-history strategies result from genetic differentiation, phenotypic plasticity, and genotype-by-environment interactions. If the relative strength and direction of these components differed among traits underlying a strategy, life histories might not evolve as a cohesive unit. We tested this hypothesis on the high- and low-predation ecotypes of Trinidadian guppies, defined by distinct life-history strategies. Using common garden experiments, we assessed how strongly 36 traits were determined by ancestral habitat (i.e., ecotype) or food availability, a key environmental difference between ecotypes. Our dataset was large (1178 individuals) and included six putatively independent origins of the derived ecotype. Traits could be confidently assigned to four groups, defined by highly significant effects of only food (13 traits), only habitat (6), both (6), or neither (11), revealing substantial variation among traits in levels of genetic and environmental control. Ecotype-food (i.e., genotype-by-environment) interactions were negligible. The directions of plastic and genetic effects were usually aligned. This suggests that life histories are mosaics with unequal rates of phenotypic and evolutionary change. Broadly speaking of "life-history evolution" masks a complex interplay of genes and environment on the multiple traits that underpin life-history strategies.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Rapid genomic convergent evolution in experimental populations of Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata)

It is now accepted that phenotypic evolution can occur quickly but the genetic basis of rapid adaptation to natural environments is largely unknown in multicellular organisms. Population genomic studies of experimental populations of Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) provide a unique opportunity to study this phenomenon. Guppy populations that were transplanted from high-predation (HP) to low-predation (LP) environments have been shown to mimic naturally-colonised LP populations phenotypically in as few as 8 generations. The new phenotypes persist in subsequent generations in lab environments, indicating their high heritability. Here, we compared whole genome variation in four populations recently introduced into LP sites along with the corresponding HP source population. We examined genome-wide patterns of genetic variation to estimate past demography, and uncovered signatures of selection with a combination of genome scans and a novel multivariate approach based on allele frequency change vectors. We were able to identify a limited number of candidate loci for convergent evolution across the genome. In particular, we found a region on chromosome 15 under strong selection in three of the four populations, with our multivariate approach revealing subtle parallel changes in allele frequency in all four populations across this region. Investigating patterns of genome-wide selection in this uniquely replicated experiment offers remarkable insight into the mechanisms underlying rapid adaptation, providing a basis for comparison with other species and populations experiencing rapidly changing environments. IMPACT STATEMENTThe genetic basis of rapid adaptation to new environments is largely unknown. Here we take advantage of a unique replicated experiment in the wild, where guppies from a high predation source were introduced into four low predation localities. Previous reports document census size fluctuations and rapid phenotypic evolution in these populations. We used genome-wide sequencing to understand past demography and selection. We detected clear signals of population growth and bottlenecks at the genome-wide level matching known census population data changes. We then identified candidate regions of selection across the genome, some of which were shared between populations. In particular, using a novel multivariate method, we identified parallel allele frequency change at a strong candidate locus for adaptation to low predation. These results and methods will be of use to those studying evolution at a recent, ecological timescale.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Ancestral ecological regime shapes reaction to food limitation in the Least Killifish, Heterandria formosa

In populations with contrasting densities of conspecifics, we often see genetically-based differences in life histories. The divergent life histories could be driven by several distinct agents of selection, including, amongst other factors, variation in per-capita food levels, the intensity of crowding-induced stress, rates of pathogen transmission, mate encounter rates, and the rates with which waste products accumulate. Understanding which selective agents act in a particular population is important as the type of agents can affect both population dynamics and evolutionary responses to density-dependent selection. Here we used a full-factorial laboratory experiment to examine whether two populations of a small live-bearing freshwater fish, characterised by high-density/low-predation or low-density/high-predation conditions, are adapted to different per-capita food levels. As expected, fish from the higher density regime handled food limitation better than those from the lower density regime. Although the lower food level resulted in slower growth, smaller body size, delayed maturation and reduced survival in both populations, especially survival to maturity showed a highly significant population x food-level interaction. At low food, 75% of fish from the low-density population died, compared to only 15% of fish from the high-density population. This difference was much smaller at high food (15% vs. 0% mortality), and was mediated, at least partly, through a larger size at birth of fish from the high-density regime. While we cannot preclude other agents of selection from operating differently in the study populations, we demonstrate that selection at higher density confers a greater ability to cope with low per-capita food availability.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

A global to local genomics analysis of Clostridioides difficile ST1/RT027 identifies cryptic transmission events in a northern Arizona healthcare network

Clostridioides difficile is a ubiquitous, diarrheagenic pathogen often associated with healthcare-acquired infections that can cause a range of symptoms from mild, self-limiting disease to toxic megacolon and death. Since the early 2000s, a large proportion of C. difficile cases have been attributed to the ribotype 027 (RT027) lineage, which is associated with sequence type 1 (ST1) in the C. difficile multilocus sequence typing (MLST) scheme. The spread of ST1 has been attributed, in part, to resistance to fluoroquinolones used to treat un-related infections, which creates conditions ideal for C. difficile colonization and proliferation. In this study, we analyzed 27 isolates from a healthcare network in northern Arizona, USA, and 1,352 public ST1 genomes to place locally-sampled isolates into a global context. Core genome, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis demonstrated that at least 6 separate introductions of ST1 were observed in healthcare facilities in northern Arizona over an 18-month sampling period. A reconstruction of transmission networks identified potential nosocomial transmission of isolates following two of these introductions, which were only identified via whole genome sequence analysis. Antibiotic resistance heterogeneity was observed among ST1 genomes, including variability in resistance profiles among locally sampled ST1 isolates. To investigate why ST1 genomes are so common globally, we compared all high-quality C. difficile genomes and identified that ST1 genomes have gained and lost a number of genomic regions compared to all other C. difficile genomes; analyses of other toxigenic C. difficile sequence types demonstrates that this loss may be anomalous and could be related to niche specialization. These results suggest that a combination of antimicrobial resistance and gain and loss of specific genes may explain the prominent association of this sequence type with C. difficile infection cases worldwide. The degree of genetic variability in ST1 suggests that classifying all ST1 genomes into a quinolone-resistant hypervirulent clone category may not be appropriate. Whole genome sequencing of clinical C. difficile isolates provides a high-resolution surveillance strategy for monitoring persistence and transmission of C. difficile and for assessing the performance of infection prevention and control strategies.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2017

PREDICTING COEXISTENCE IN SPECIES WITH CONTINUOUS ONTOGENETIC NICHE SHIFTS AND COMPETITIVE ASYMMETRY

A longstanding problem in ecology is whether structured life cycles impede or facilitate coexistence between species. Theory based on populations with two discrete stages in the life-cycle indicates that coexistence requires at least one species to shift its niche between stages and that each species is a better competitor in one of the niches. However, in many cases, niche shifts are associated with changes in an underlying continuous trait like organism size and we have few predictions for how the conditions for coexistence are affected by this type of ontogenetic dynamics. Here we develop a framework for analyzing species coexistence based on Integral Projection Models (IPMs) that incorporates continuous ontogenetic changes in both the resource niche and competitive ability. We parameterize the model using experimental data from Trinidadian guppies and make predictions about how niche shifts and competitive symmetries allow or prevent species coexistence. Overall, our results show that the effects of competition on fitness depend upon trait-mediated niche-separation, trait-mediated competitive asymmetry in the part of the niche that is shared across body sizes, and the sensitivity of fitness to body size. When all three conditions are considered, we find multiple ecological and evolutionary routes to coexistence. When both species can shift their niche with increasing body size and competition for resources among the species and sizes is symmetric, then the species that shifts its niche to a greater degree with ontogeny will competitively exclude the other species. When competitive ability increases with increasing body size, then the two species can coexist when the better competitor shifts its niche with body size to a lesser degree than the weaker competitior. This region of coexistence shrinks as the better competitor increasingly shifts its niche with increasing size. When both species shift their niches with size, but each is a better competitor on resources used by smaller or larger individuals, then the model predicts an alternative stable state over some range of niche shifts. We discuss how our results provide new insights into species coexistence and the evolutionary consequences of size-structured interspecific competition.

ecology↗