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Timmer, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Timmer, J..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Parameters for stable Notch-independent Her6 oscillations across a frequency spectrum in neural stem cell populations

Neural proliferation zones drive the major growth phases of the vertebrate brain. Notch signaling and HES/Her transcription factors control neural stem cell (NSC) maintenance and neurogenesis, however the dynamic regulation of neural proliferation zones to sustain growth is not well understood. Notch-independent expression of the zebrafish HES1 homolog her6 in the larval brain is required for NSC maintenance and growth. We generated an mNeonGreen knock-in into the her6 locus and quantified Her6-mNeonGreen oscillations in vivo in distinct NSC populations. Her6 oscillates cell-autonomously across a broader frequency range, unaffected by inhibition of Notch signaling, and robustly reinitiated after experimental perturbations. Mathematical modelling reveals that Her6 oscillations prevail only when both transcript and protein degradation rate constants are equal. These intrinsic control parameters may have evolved to enable the Her6 oscillator to robustly maintain stemness during proliferative phases irrespective of local Notch signaling cues, and to provide for lineage stability while retaining plasticity for lineage progression.

developmental biology↗

Synthetic-data augmented calibration for expert-informed rare disease models

Clinical data for rare diseases are sparse, noisy, and heterogeneous, complicating calibration of ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. Thus, we introduce a noise-robust calibration in latent space that combines expertderived ODEs with learned latent representations. Our approach leverages synthetic ODE trajectories, augmenting our scarce observations to train a model-specific autoencoder representation and imputer. During calibration, observed and ODE-generated trajectories are compared in latent space, and ODE parameters are updated by minimizing their latent distance. In a controlled ABCDE simulation model, the imputer outperformed a carry-forward baseline for moderate parameter shifts, parameter recovery remained stable under random missingness, calibration remained robust to additional noise variables despite reduced downstream identifiability, and distinct dynamics formed visually separable latent trajectories. On a custom developed ODE model for real Epidermolysis Bullosa patients, the calibrated phenomenological model reproduced patient-level trajectories from sparse observations. Thus, we conclude that our latent-space calibration approach supports rare-disease modeling.

bioinformatics↗

Collective cancer cell calcium activity drives brain metastasis

Communication in multicellular networks is a cancer-intrinsic neural feature and crucial for primary brain tumor growth and resistance, but it is unclear whether brain metastases (BrM), the most common and deadliest brain malignancy, are also driven by communicating cancer networks. Using intravital two-photon microscopy in awake mice, clinical specimens, and Ca2+ integrators, we demonstrate that brain-colonizing breast and lung cancer and melanoma cells display gap-junction-dependent, coordinated Ca2+ activity in multicellular, cancer-cell intrinsic networks, which drives their proliferation. Mechanistically, Ca2+ oscillations induce transcription of immediate early genes, adoption of a neuronal expression profile, and cell cycle progression. While many of those features are enriched in BrM, all investigated cancer cell lines showed collective Ca2+ activity. Therapeutically, blocking Ca2+ activity with gap junction inhibitors reduces BrM burden in mouse models. Here we show communicating cancer cell syncytia as drivers of BrM growth, pointing to a targetable pathomechanism, and potentially a new pan-cancer hallmark. Graphical AbstractIn brief Brain metastases form gap-junction-coupled networks exhibiting spontaneous, coordinated Ca2+ activity linked to immediate early gene activation, neuronal gene programs, and cell cycle progression. Disrupting Ca2+ network communication with gap junction inhibitors induces cell cycle arrest and reduces brain metastatic burden in vivo. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=195 HEIGHT=200 SRC="FIGDIR/small/723715v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (88K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1130ea0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@254dcdorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@117021forg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@18c4f1e_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG HighlightsO_LIBrain metastases display collective Ca2+ activity in gap-junction-coupled networks C_LIO_LICa2+ co-activity is conserved across cancers but enriched in brain metastasis C_LIO_LICa2+ oscillations robustly induce neuronal gene programs and cell cycle progression C_LIO_LIGap junction inhibition reduces brain metastasis burden in mice C_LI

cancer biology↗

1100 Synthetic Benchmark Problems for Dynamic Modeling of Cellular Processes

MotivationSystems biology strives to unravel the complex dynamics of cellular processes, often with the help of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). However, the sparsity of measured data and the strong non-linearity of common ODEs introduce severe numerical problems in typical modeling tasks. This gave rise to the development of many computational algorithms that must be systematically evaluated to ensure optimal method choices. Currently, the amount of well curated models for such benchmarking efforts is insufficient, as building and calibrating biologically reasonable models based on experiments requires years of work. ResultsWe present a large-scale collection of 1100 synthetic modeling problems, generated based on the ODE systems and experimental designs of 22 published modeling problems. This is achieved by extending a recent method for simulation of time-course data for randomly generated observation functions to also include realistic measurement patterns across multiple experimental conditions. By analyzing data and model characteristics, optimization performance and parameter identifiability, we show that the synthetic problems provide both a realistic and diverse extension of the existing problem space. Hence, the synthetic collection provides a valuable resource for benchmarking in dynamic modeling. Availability and ImplementationBenchmark problems and algorithm are publicly available at https://github.com/niklasneubrand/1100SyntheticBenchmarksODE and https://zenodo.org/records/14008247.

systems biology↗

PEtab Select: specification standard and supporting software for automated model selection

A central question in mathematical modeling of biological systems is determining which processes are most relevant and how they can be described. There are often competing hypotheses, which yield different models. Model comparison requires parameter optimization and sampling methods. Yet, standards for the specification of model selection problems and the swift evaluation of a broad spectrum of approaches are not available. PEtab Select addresses this challenge by providing a concise, standardized specification of model selection and its associated calibration problems through a new file format standard and software package. The standard facilitates the compact representation of even very large model selection problems; in one example, billions of model alternatives. PEtab Select builds on the PEtab standard for the specification of parameter estimation problems, and enables the use of state-of-the-art modelling and calibration workflows utilizing COPASI, Data2Dynamics, PEtab.jl, and pyPESTO. PEtab Select supports common model selection criteria (e.g., Akaike and Bayesian information criteria) and can be easily extended to use others. To ensure flexibility, PEtab Select implements several model space exploration approaches, including basic brute-force, forward, and backward selection, and also advanced, flexible selection methods. PEtab Select introduces the first standardization of model selection tasks, filling a critical gap in existing computational pipelines. It constitutes an essential contribution to FAIR research software in systems biology by promoting interoperability and reusability in model selection. Author summaryModel selection is a crucial step in mathematical modeling, guiding the choice of components to include in a model. PEtab Select automates this process across diverse modeling frameworks and programming languages via (1) a new interoperable, language-agnostic standard for specifying large-scale model selection problems, and (2) a comprehensive software package that implements these selection methods. Developed through a community effort, PEtab Select has been integrated into multiple modeling frameworks and is accessible to users of COPASI, Julia, MATLAB, and Python.

systems biology↗

The break in the cycle: Inositol pyrophosphate fluxomics disentangled via mathematical modelling

This study investigates the metabolic pathways of inositol pyrophosphates (IPPs) in the yeast cell line {Delta}SPX and the human tumor cell line HCT116. Utilizing pulse-labelling experiments with 18O water and ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, we explore the synthesis and turnover of the highly phosphorylated IPP, 1,5-InsP8. Our findings challenge the notion that 1,5-InsP8 can be synthesized through distinct routes, revealing a linear reaction sequence in both systems. Employing model reduction via the profile likelihood method, we achieved statistically concise identifiability analysis that led to significant biological insights. In yeast, we determined that 1,5-InsP8 production primarily occurs through the phosphorylation of 5-InsP7, with the pathway involving 1-InsP7 deemed unnecessary as its removal did not compromise model accuracy. In HCT116 cells, 1,5-InsP8 synthesis is mainly driven by 1-InsP7, with variations observed across different experimental conditions. These results underscore the utility of model reduction in enhancing our understanding of metabolic pathways, challenging traditional views of IPP metabolism, and providing a framework for future investigations into the regulation and implications of linear IPP pathways in eukaryotic cells.

molecular biology↗

Pools of independently cycling inositol phosphates revealed by pulse labeling with 18O-water

Inositol phosphates control many central processes in eukaryotic cells, including nutrient availability, growth, and motility. Kinetic resolution of a key modulator of their signaling functions, the turnover of the phosphate groups on the inositol ring, has been hampered by slow uptake, high dilution, and constraining growth conditions in radioactive pulse-labeling approaches. Here, we demonstrate rapid (seconds to minutes), non-radioactive labeling of inositol polyphosphates through 18O-water in yeast, amoeba and human cells, which can be applied in any media. In combination with capillary electrophoresis and mass spectrometry, 18O-water labeling simultaneously dissects the in vivo phosphate group dynamics of a broad spectrum of even rare inositol phosphates. The improved temporal resolution allowed us to discover vigorous phosphate group exchanges in some inositol poly- and pyrophosphates, whereas others remain remarkably inert. Our observations support a model in which the biosynthetic pathway of inositol poly- and pyrophosphates is organized in distinct, kinetically separated pools. While transfer of compounds between those pools is slow, each pool undergoes rapid internal phosphate cycling. This might enable the pools to perform distinct signaling functions while being metabolically connected.

biochemistry↗

Design of a Biohybrid Materials Circuit with Binary Decoder Functionality

Synthetic biology applies concepts from electrical engineering and information processing to endow cells with computational functionality. Transferring the underlying molecular components into materials and wiring them according to topologies inspired by electronic circuit boards has yielded materials systems that perform selected computational operations. However, the limited functionality of available building blocks is restricting the implementation of advanced information-processing circuits into materials. Here, we engineer a set of protease-based biohybrid modules the bioactivity of which can either be induced or inhibited. Guided by a quantitative mathematical model and following a design-build-test-learn cycle, we wire the modules according to circuit topologies inspired by electronic signal decoders, a fundamental motif in information processing. We design a 2-input/4-output binary decoder for the detection of two small molecules in a material framework that could perform regulated outputs in form of distinct protease activities. The here demonstrated smart material system is strongly modular and could be used for biomolecular information processing for example in advanced biosensing or drug delivery applications.

synthetic biology↗

Basal MET Phosphorylation is an Indicator of Hepatocyte Dysregulation in Liver Disease

Chronic liver diseases are worldwide on the rise. Due to the rapidly increasing incidence, in particular in Western countries, Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is gaining importance as the disease can develop into hepatocellular carcinoma. Lipid accumulation in hepatocytes has been identified as the characteristic structural change in NAFLD development, but molecular mechanisms responsible for disease progression remained unresolved. Here, we uncover in primary hepatocytes from a preclinical model fed with a Western diet (WD) a strong downregulation of the PI3K-AKT pathway and an upregulation of the MAPK pathway. Dynamic pathway modeling of hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) signal transduction combined with global proteomics identifies that an elevated basal MET phosphorylation rate is the main driver of altered signaling leading to increased proliferation of WD-hepatocytes. Model-adaptation to patient-derived hepatocytes reveal patient-specific variability in basal MET phosphorylation, which correlates with patient outcome after liver surgery. Thus, dysregulated basal MET phosphorylation could be an indicator for the health status of the liver and thereby inform on the risk of a patient to suffer from liver failure after surgery.

systems biology↗

Engineering a material-genetic interface as safety switch for embedded therapeutic cells

Encapsulated cell-based therapies involve the use of genetically-modified cells embedded in a material in order to produce a therapeutic agent in a specific location in the patients body. This approach has shown great potential in animal model systems for treating diseases such as type I diabetes or cancer, with selected approaches having been tested in clinical trials. Despite the promise shown by encapsulated cell therapy, though, there are safety concerns yet to be addressed, such as the escape of the engineered cells from the encapsulation material and the resulting production of therapeutic agents at uncontrolled sites of the body. For that reason, there is great interest in the implementation of safety switches that protect from those side effects. Here, we develop a material-genetic interface as safety switch for engineered mammalian cells embedded into hydrogels. Our switch allows the therapeutic cells to sense whether they are embedded in the hydrogel by means of a synthetic receptor and signaling cascade that link transgene expression to the presence of an intact embedding material. The system design is highly modular, allowing its flexible adaptation to other cell types and embedding materials. This autonomously acting switch constitutes an advantage over previously described safety switches, which rely on user-triggered signals to modulate activity or survival of the implanted cells. We envision that the concept developed here will advance the safety of cell therapies and facilitate their translation to clinical evaluation. Graphical abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=138 SRC="FIGDIR/small/535359v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (29K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@15e5005org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@d793a2org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@11d92f6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@9b8128_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

synthetic biology↗

Likelihood-ratio test statistic for the finite-sample case in nonlinear ordinary differential equation models

Likelihood ratios are frequently utilized as basis for statistical tests, for model selection criteria and for assessing parameter and prediction uncertainties, e.g. using the profile likelihood. However, translating these likelihood ratios into p-values or confidence intervals requires the exact form of the test statistics distribution. The lack of knowledge about this distribution for nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models requires an approximation which assumes the so-called asymptotic setting, i.e. a sufficiently large amount of data. Since the amount of data from quantitative molecular biology is typically limited in applications, this finite-sample case regularly occurs for mechanistic models of dynamical systems, e.g. biochemical reaction networks or infectious disease models. Thus, it is unclear whether the standard approach of using statistical thresholds derived for the asymptotic large-sample setting in realistic applications results in valid conclusions. In this study, empirical likelihood ratios for parameters from 19 published nonlinear ODE benchmark models are investigated using a resampling approach for the original data designs. Their distributions are compared to the asymptotic approximation and statistical thresholds are checked for conservativeness. It turns out, that corrections of the likelihood ratios in such finite-sample applications are required in order to avoid anti-conservative results. Author summaryStatistical methods based on the likelihood ratio are ubiquitous in mathematical modelling in systems biology. For example confidence intervals of estimated parameters rely on the statistical properties of the likelihood-ratio test. However, it is often overlooked that these intervals sizes rely on assumptions on the amounts of data, which are regularly violated in typical applications in systems biology. By checking the appropriateness of these assumptions in models from the literature, this study shows that in a surprisingly large fraction confidence intervals might be too small. Using a geometric interpretation of parameter estimation in the so-called data space, it is motivated why these issues appear and how they depend on the identifiability of the model parameters. In order to avoid such problematic situations, this work makes suggestions on how to adapt the statistical threshold values for likelihood-ratio test. By this, it can be assured that valid statistical conclusions are drawn from the analysis, also in situations where only smaller data sets are available. Such corrections yield for example more conservative confidence interval sizes and thus decrease a potential underestimation of the parameter uncertainty.

systems biology↗

Uncovering specific mechanisms across cell types in dynamical models

Ordinary differential equations are frequently employed for mathematical modeling of biological systems. The identification of mechanisms that are specific to certain cell types is crucial for building useful models and to gain insights into the underlying biological processes. Regularization techniques have been proposed and applied to identify mechanisms specific to two cell types, e.g., healthy and cancer cells, including the LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). However, when analyzing more than two cell types, these approaches are not consistent, and require the selection of a reference cell type, which can affect the results. To make the regularization approach applicable to identifying cell-type specific mechanisms in any number of cell types, we propose to incorporate the clustered LASSO into the framework of ordinary differential equation modeling by penalizing the pairwise differences of the logarithmized fold-change parameters encoding a specific mechanism in different cell types. The symmetry introduced by this approach renders the results independent of the reference cell type. We discuss the necessary adaptations of state-of-the-art numerical optimization techniques and the process of model selection for this method. We assess the performance with realistic biological models and synthetic data, and demonstrate that it outperforms existing approaches. Finally, we also exemplify its application to published biological models including experimental data, and link the results to independent biological measurements. Contactadrian.hauber@fdm.uni-freiburg.de Author SummaryMathematical models enable insights into biological systems beyond what is possible in the wet lab alone. However, constructing useful models can be challenging, since they both need a certain amount of complexity to adequately describe real-world observations, and simultaneously enough simplicity to enable understanding of these observations and precise predictions. Regularization techniques were suggested to tackle this challenge, especially when building models that describe two different types of cells, such as healthy and cancer cells. Typically, both cell types have a large portion of biological mechanisms in common, and the task is to identify the relevant differences that need to be included into the model. For more than two types of cells, the existing approaches are not readily applicable, because they require defining one of the cell types as reference, which potentially influences the results. In this work, we present a regularization method that is independent from the choice of a reference. We demonstrate its working principle and compare its performance to existing approaches. Since we implemented this method in a freely available software package, it is accessible to a broad range of researchers and will facilitate the construction of useful mathematical models for multiple types of cells.

systems biology↗

Activator-blocker model of transcriptional regulation by pioneer-like factors

Zygotic genome activation (ZGA) in the development of flies, fish, frogs and mammals depends on pioneer-like transcription factors (TFs). Those TFs create open chromatin regions, promote histone acetylation on enhancers, and activate transcription. Here, we use the panel of single, double and triple mutants for zebrafish genome activators Pou5f3, Sox19b and Nanog, multi-omics and mathematical modeling to investigate the combinatorial mechanisms of genome activation. We show that Pou5f3 and Nanog act differently on synergistic and antagonistic enhancer types. Pou5f3 and Nanog both bind as pioneer-like TFs on synergistic enhancers, promote histone acetylation and activate transcription. Antagonistic enhancers are activated by binding of one of these factors. The other TF binds as non-pioneer-like TF, competes with the activator and blocks all its effects, partially or completely. This activator-blocker mechanism mutually restricts widespread transcriptional activation by Pou5f3 and Nanog and prevents premature expression of late developmental regulators in the early embryo.

developmental biology↗

Mutual repression between JNK/AP-1 and JAK/STAT stratifies cell behaviors during tissue regeneration

Epithelial repair relies on the activation of stress signaling pathways to coordinate cellular repair behaviors. Their deregulation is implicated in chronic wound and cancer pathologies. Despite such translational importance, an understanding of how spatial patterns of signaling pathways and repair behaviors arise in damaged tissues remains elusive. Using TNF-/Eiger-mediated inflammatory damage to Drosophila imaginal discs, we uncover that JNK/AP-1 signaling cells act as paracrine organizers and initiate a mutual repression network that spatially segregates JNK/AP-1 and JAK/STAT signaling cells into distinct populations. While JNK/AP-1 signaling cells produce JAK/STAT-activating Upd ligands, these signal-sending cells suppress activation of JAK/STAT via Ptp61F. Conversely, responding cells with activated JAK/STAT suppress JNK activation via Zfh2. The resulting bistable segregation of signaling domains is associated with distinct cellular tasks and regenerative potential. While JNK/AP-1 signaling cells at the wound center act as paracrine organizers, their cell cycle is senescently arrested. Thus, compensatory proliferation occurs exclusively in JAK/STAT signaling cells at the wound periphery. This spatial stratification is essential for proper tissue repair, as co-activation of JNK/AP-1 and JAK/STAT in the same cells creates conflicting inputs on cell cycle progression, leading to excess apoptosis of senescently arrested organizer cells. Finally, we demonstrate that bistable spatial segregation of JNK/AP-1 and JAK/STAT drives senescent and proliferative behaviors in transient as well as chronic tissue damage models, and importantly, in RasV12, scrib tumors under the influence of JNK/AP-1 activity. Revealing this previously uncharacterized regulatory network between JNK/AP-1, JAK/STAT and associated cell behaviors have important implications for our conceptual understanding of tissue repair, chronic wound pathologies and tumor microenvironments, where both pathways are strongly implicated.

developmental biology↗

BlotIt - Optimal alignment of western blot and qPCR experiments

Biological systems are frequently analyzed by means of mechanistic mathematical models. In order to infer model parameters and provide a useful model that can be employed for systems understanding and hypothesis testing, the model is often calibrated on quantitative, time-resolved data. To do so, it is typically important to compare experimental measurements over broad time ranges and various experimental conditions, e.g. perturbations of the biological system. However, most of the established experimental techniques such as Western blot, or quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction only provide measurements on a relative scale, since different sample volumes, experimental adjustments or varying development times of a gel lead to systematic shifts in the data. In turn, the number of measurements corresponding to the same scale enabling comparability is limited. Here, we present a new flexible method to align measurement data that obeys different scaling factors. We propose an alignment model to estimate these scaling factors and provide the possibility to adapt this model depending on the measurement technique of interest. In addition, an error model can be specified to adequately weight the different data points and obtain scaling-model based confidence intervals of the finally scaled data points. Our approach is applicable to all sorts of relative measurements and does not need a particular experimental condition that has been measured over all available scales. An implementation of the method is provided with the R package blotIt including refined ways of visualization.

bioinformatics↗

Identification of Interleukin1β as an Amplifier of Interferon alpha-induced Antiviral Responses

The induction of an interferon-mediated response is the first line of defense against pathogens such as viruses. Yet, the dynamics and extent of interferon alpha (IFN)-induced antiviral genes vary remarkably and comprise three expression clusters: early, intermediate and late. By mathematical modeling based on time-resolved quantitative data, we identified mRNA stability as well as a negative regulatory loop as key mechanisms endogenously controlling the expression dynamics of IFN-induced antiviral genes in hepatocytes. Guided by the mathematical model, we uncovered that this regulatory loop is mediated by the transcription factor IRF2 and showed that knock-down of IRF2 results in enhanced expression of early, intermediate and late IFN-induced antiviral genes. Co-stimulation experiments with different pro-inflammatory cytokines revealed that this amplified expression dynamics of the early, intermediate and late IFN-induced antiviral genes can be mimicked by co-application of IFN and interleukin1 beta (IL1{beta}). Consistently, we found that IL1{beta} enhances IFN-mediated repression of viral replication. Conversely, we observed that in IL1{beta} receptor knock-out mice replication of viruses sensitive to IFN is increased. Thus, IL1{beta} is capable to potentiate IFN-induced antiviral responses and could be exploited to improve antiviral therapies. Author SummaryInnate immune responses contribute to the control of viral infections and the induction of interferon alpha (IFN)-mediated antiviral responses is an important component. However, IFN induces a multitude of antiviral response genes and the expression dynamics of these genes can be classified as early, intermediate and late. Here we show, based on a mathematical modeling approach, that mRNA stability as well as the negative regulator IRF2 control the expression dynamics of IFN-induced antiviral genes. Knock-down of IRF2 resulted in the amplified IFN-mediated induction of the antiviral genes and this amplified expression of antiviral genes could be mimicked by co-stimulation with IFN and IL1{beta}. We observed that co-stimulation with IFN and IL1{beta} enhanced the repression of virus replication and that knock-out of the IL1 receptor in mice resulted in increased replication of a virus sensitive to IFN. In sum, our studies identified IL1{beta} as an important amplifier of IFN-induced antiviral responses.

systems biology↗

Pou5f3 and Sox19b select gene expression repertoire at Zygotic Genome Activation

Awakening of zygotic transcription in animal embryos relies on maternal pioneer transcription factors. The interplay of global and specific functions of these proteins remains poorly understood. Here, we analyze chromatin accessibility and time-resolved transcription in single and double mutant zebrafish embryos lacking pluripotency factors Pou5f3 and Sox19b. We show that two factors modify chromatin in a largely independent manner. We distinguish four types of direct enhancers by differential requirements for Pou5f3 or Sox19b. We demonstrate that changes in chromatin accessibility of enhancers underlie the changes in zygotic expression repertoire in the double mutants. Pou5f3 or Sox19b promote chromatin accessibility of enhancers linked to the genes involved in gastrulation and ventral fate specification. The genes regulating mesendodermal and dorsal fates are primed for activation independently of Pou5f3 and Sox19b. Strikingly, simultaneous loss of Pou5f3 and Sox19b leads to premature expression of genes, involved in regulation of organogenesis and differentiation.

developmental biology↗

Cell-to-cell variability in JAK2/STAT5 pathway components and cytoplasmic volumes define survival threshold in erythroid progenitor cells

Survival or apoptosis is a binary decision in individual cells. Yet, at the cell population level, a graded increase in survival of CFU-E cells is observed upon stimulation with Erythropoietin (Epo). To identify components of JAK2/STAT5 signal transduction that contribute to the graded population response, a cell population-level model calibrated with experimental data was extended to study the behavior in single cells. The single-cell model showed that the high cell-to-cell variability in nuclear phosphorylated STAT5 is caused by variability in the amount of EpoR:JAK2 complexes and of SHP1 as well as the extent of nuclear import due to the large variance in the cytoplasmic volume of CFU-E cells. 24 to 118 pSTAT5 molecules in the nucleus for 120 min are sufficient to ensure cell survival. Thus, variability in membrane-associated processes are responsible to convert a switch-like behavior at the single-cell level to a graded population level response. HighlightsO_LIMathematical modeling enables integration of heterogeneous data C_LIO_LISingle-cell modeling captures binary decision process C_LIO_LIMultiple sources of cell-to-cell variability in erythroid progenitor cells C_LIO_LIMinimal amount of active STAT5 sufficient for survival of erythroid progenitor cells C_LI

systems biology↗