Thorstrom, R. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2022

Extensive protected area coverage and an updated global population estimate for the Endangered Madagascar Serpent-eagle identified from species-habitat associations using remote sensing data

Knowledge gaps regarding distribution, habitat associations, and population size for rare and threatened range-restricted taxa leads to uncertainty in directing conservation action. Quantifying range metrics and species-habitat associations using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with remote sensing habitat data can overcome these setbacks by establishing baseline estimates for biological parameters critical for conservation assessments. Area of habitat (AOH) is a new range metric developed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. AOH seeks to quantify inferred habitat within a species range to inform extinction risk assessments. Here, we use SDMs correlating occurrences with remote-sensing covariates, to calculate a first estimate of AOH for the Endangered Madagascar Serpent-eagle (Eutriorchis astur), and then update additional IUCN range metrics and the current global population estimate. From these baselines we then conduct a gap analysis assessing protected area coverage. Our continuous SDM had robust predictive performance (Continuous Boyce Index = 0.835) and when reclassified to a binary model estimated an AOH = 30,121 km2, 13 % less than the current IUCN range map. We estimate a global population of 533 mature individuals derived from the Madagascar Serpent-eagle AOH metric, which was within the current IUCN population estimates. The current protected area network covered 95 % of AOH, with the binary model identifying three key habitat areas as new protected area designations to fully protect Madagascar Serpent-eagle habitat. Our results demonstrate that correlating presence-only occurrences with remote sensing habitat covariates can fill knowledge gaps useful for informing conservation action. Applying this spatial information to conservation planning would ensure almost full protected area coverage for this endangered raptor. For tropical forest habitat specialists, we recommend that potential predictors derived from remote sensing, such as vegetation indices and biophysical measures are considered as covariates, along with other variables including climate and topography.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Distribution and habitat use of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon: first estimates for area of habitat and population size

Accurately demarcating species distributions has long been at the core of ecology. Yet our understanding of the factors limiting species range limits is incomplete, especially for tropical species in the Global South. Human-driven threats to the survival of many taxa are increasing, particularly habitat loss and climate change. Identifying distributional range limits of at-risk and data-limited species using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can thus inform spatial conservation planning to mitigate these threats. The Madagascar Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus radama) is the resident sub-species of the Peregrine Falcon complex distributed across Madagascar, Mayotte, and the Comoros Islands. Currently, there are significant knowledge gaps regarding its distribution, habitat preferences and population size. Here, we use point process regression models and ordination to identify Madagascar Peregrine Falcon environmental range limits and propose a population size estimate based on inferred habitat. From our models, the core range of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon extends across the central upland plateau of Madagascar with a patchier range across coastal and low-elevation areas. Range-wide habitat use indicated that the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon prefers areas of high elevation and aridity, coupled with high vegetation heterogeneity and > 95 % herbaceous landcover, but generally avoids areas of > 30 % cultivated land and > 10 % mosaic forest. Based on inferred high-class habitat, we estimate this habitat area could potentially support a population size ranging between 150-300 pairs. Following International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List guidelines, we recommend this sub-species be classed as Vulnerable, due to its small population size. Despite its potentially large range, the Madagascar Peregrine has specialized habitat requirements and would benefit from targeted conservation measures based on spatial models in order to maintain viable populations.

ecology↗