Plate design confounds donor variation and model evaluation in single-cell perturbation screens
Single-cell screens of immune cells from many donors are used to study why individuals respond differently and to benchmark response models. Each donor-perturbation combination typically occupies one well, controls are grouped, and donors share one layout, so technical effects can look biological. Using a 90-cytokine screen, two compound screens, four cohorts and simulations, we show that well effects explain most replicate-control variation in abundant cell types, controls carry a shared offset, and identical control wells differ by hundreds of differentially expressed genes at a standard threshold, about as many as two receptor-negative proteins do. Negative controls, design-aware estimators and perturbation-specific evaluation change the interpretation of four recent analyses. A deep-learning model that scores below a perturbation-agnostic predictor under standard evaluation outperforms a simple baseline on perturbation-specific differences in two of three cell types (significantly in one with stricter controls), but predicts less well the component shared with inert wells.