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Theze, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Theze, J..

16 recordsLinked to original sources
bioRxiv2025

Simulation based-inference of epidemiological and phylodynamic models via Neural Posterior Estimation

Mathematical models play a central role in understanding and forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but parameter inference is often difficult when likelihoods are intractable. Simulation-based inference (SBI) circumvents this limitation by relying on model simulations. Traditional SBI methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation, typically depend on handcrafted summary statistics and scale poorly in high-dimensional settings. Recent advances address these challenges by using flexible statistical and machine-learning surrogates to approximate likelihoods or posterior distributions. Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) directly learns the posterior from simulated data using neural density estimators, automatically extracting informative representations without ad-hoc summaries. Despite its potential, NPE has been rarely applied in infectious disease epidemiology and phylodynamics. Here, we evaluate NPE for parameter inference in mechanistic models using data from the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. We consider two case studies: a compartmental transmission model fitted to case and death time series, and a birth-death phylodynamic model fitted to an early Ebola phylogeny. In both settings, NPE yields accurate and reliable posterior estimates. Its amortized nature further enables efficient model calibration and criticism. We conclude that NPE is a flexible and scalable tool for epidemiological and phylodynamic inference, and provide detailed online tutorials illustrating the workflow.

systems biology↗
bioRxiv2023

Polinton-like Viruses Associated with Entomopoxviruses Provide Insight into Replicon Evolution

Polinton-like viruses (PLVs) are a diverse group of small integrative dsDNA viruses that infect diverse eukaryotic hosts. Many PLVs are hypothesized to parasitize viruses in the phylum Nucleocytoviricota for their own propagation and spread. Here we analyze the genomes of novel PLVs associated with the occlusion bodies of entomopoxvirus (EV) infections of two separate lepidopteran hosts. The presence of these elements within EV occlusion bodies suggests that they are the first known hyperparasites of poxviruses. We find that these PLVs belong to two distinct lineages that are highly diverged from known PLVs. These PLVs possess mosaic genomes, and some essential genes share homology with mobile genes within EVs. Based on this homology and observed PLV mosaicism, we propose a mechanism to explain the turnover of PLV replication and integration genes.

genomics↗
bioRxiv2021

Identification of site-specific evolutionary trajectories shared across human betacoronaviruses

Comparing the evolution of distantly related viruses can provide insights into common adaptive processes related to shared ecological niches. Phylogenetic approaches, coupled with other molecular evolution tools, can help identify mutations informative on adaptation, whilst the structural contextualization of these to functional sites of proteins may help gain insight into their biological properties. Two zoonotic betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission have caused pandemics in recent times (SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), whilst a third virus (MERS-CoV) is responsible for sporadic outbreaks linked to animal infections. Moreover, two other betacoronaviruses have circulated endemically in humans for decades (HKU1 and OC43). To search for evidence of adaptive convergence between established and emerging betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission (HKU1, OC43, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), we developed a methodological pipeline to classify shared non-synonymous mutations as putatively denoting homoplasy (repeated mutations that do not share direct common ancestry) or stepwise evolution (sequential mutations leading towards a novel genotype). In parallel, we look for evidence of positive selection, and draw upon protein structure data to identify potential biological implications. We find 30 mutations, with four of these [codon sites 18121 (nsp14/residue 28), 21623 (spike/21), 21635 (spike/25) and 23948 (spike/796); SARS-CoV-2 genome numbering] displaying evolution under positive selection and proximity to functional protein regions. Our findings shed light on potential mechanisms underlying betacoronavirus adaptation to the human host and pinpoint common mutational pathways that may occur during establishment of human endemicity.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2021

Global spread and evolutionary history of HCV subtype 3a

Studies have shown that HCV subtype 3a had likely been circulating in South Asia before its global spread. However, the time and route of this dissemination remain unclear. For the first time, we generated host and virus genome-wide data for more than 500 patients infected with HCV subtype 3a from the UK, North America, Australia and New Zealand. We used the host genomic data to infer the ancestry of the patients and used this information to investigate the epidemic history of HCV subtype 3a. We observed that viruses from hosts of South Asian ancestry clustered together near the root of the tree, irrespective of the sampling country and that they were more diverse than viruses from other host ancestries. We also inferred that three independent transmission events resulted in the spread of the virus from South Asia to the UK, North America and the Australian continent. This initial spread happened during or soon after the end of the second world war. This was followed by an exponential growth in the effective population size of HCV subtype 3a worldwide and many independent transmissions between the UK, North America and Australian continent. Using both host and virus genomic information can be highly informative in studying the virus epidemic history especially in the context of chronic infections.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2019

Early identification of dengue virus lineage replacement in Brazil using portable genomic surveillance

Over 400 million people are estimated to be at risk of acquiring dengue virus (DENV). Despite efforts to mitigate the impact of DENV epidemics, the virus remains a public health problem in the Americas: more than one million DENV cases were reported in the continent between January and July 2019 DENV was first detected in Brazil in 1982, and Brazil has reported 88% (1,127,244 cases) of all DENV cases in the Americas during 2019 to date. Sao Paulo state in the southeast of Brazil has reported nearly half of all DENV infections in the country. Here we characterised the genetic diversity of DENV strains circulating in Sao Paulo state in 2019, at the epicentre of the ongoing DENV epidemic. Using portable nanopore sequencing we generated 20 new DENV genome sequences from viremic patients with suspected dengue infection residing in two of the most-affected municipalities, Araraquara and Sao Jose do Rio Preto. We conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis with 1,630 global DENV strains to better understand the evolutionary history of the DENV lineages that currently circulate in the region. The new outbreak strains were classified as DENV2 genotype III (American/Asian genotype). Notably, phylogenetic analysis indicated that the 2019 outbreak is the result of a novel DENV lineage that was recently introduced to Brazil from the Caribbean region. Our genetic analysis further indicates that the introduction and onwards spread of the outbreak lineage (named here DENV2-III BR-4) indicates a new DENV2 lineage replacement in Brazil. Dating phylogeographic analysis suggests that DENV2-III BR-4 was introduced to Brazil in or around early 2014, possibly from the Caribbean region. Our study describes the early detection of a newly introduced and rapidly-expanding DENV2 virus lineage in Brazil.\n\nAuthor SummaryDengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease of humans. The disease is caused by the dengue virus (DENV) that is classified within genus Flavivirus. DENV infections are caused by 4 serotypes (DENV 1-4) that are genetically related but antigenically distinct. Dengue infection results in a variety of symptoms that range from mild fever to dengue hemorrhagic fever and/or dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS). Clinical outcomes are associated with different types of infection, viral serotypes, genotypes, lineages, and host genetic factors. As a re-emerging infectious disease, DENV has become a serious threat to public health in the Americas, and particularly in Brazil, where it was introduced in the 1980s and became well established due to the country-wide re-infestation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito vector species. During the first six months of 2019, 1,282,183 DENV cases were reported in the Americas, with Brazil reporting a staggering 1,127,244 (88%) of all dengue cases in the continent. To date, no information exists on the genetic composition of the DENV lineage or lineages causing the current epidemic. Here we use portable sequencing to rapidly generate virus genome data from cases occurring in two different are severely-affected municipalities in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. We find that the 2019 dengue outbreak in Brazil is caused by a newly introduced DENV serotype 2 genotype III (Asian/American) that seems to be replacing previously-circulating DENV2 lineages. We discuss the potential implications of our results regarding the current outbreak in the context of previous outbreaks in the same region.

genomics↗
bioRxiv2019

Yellow fever virus spread in Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo, 2016-2019: Phylodynamic assessment to improve intervention strategies

The recent re-emergence of yellow fever virus (YFV) in Brazil has raised serious concerns due to the virus rapid dissemination in the southeastern region. To better understand YFV genetic diversity and dynamics during the recent outbreak in southeastern Brazil we generated 18 complete and near-complete genomes from the peak of the epidemic curve from non-human primates (NHPs) and human infected cases across Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro states. Genomic sequencing of 18 YFV genomes revealed the timing, source and likely routes of yellow fever virus transmission and dispersion during the one of the largest outbreaks ever registered in Brazil. We showed that the recent YFV epidemic spillover southwards several times from Minas Gerais to Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro states in 2016 to 2019. The quick production and analysis of data from portable sequencing could identify the corridor of spread of YFV. These findings reinforce that real-time and continued genomic surveillance strategies can assist in the monitoring and public health responses of arbovirus epidemics.\n\nIMPORTANCEArbovirus infections in Brazil including Yellow Fever, Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya result in considerable morbidity and mortality and are pressing public health concerns. However, our understanding of these outbreaks is hampered by limited availability of real time genomic data. In this study, we investigated the genetic diversity and spatial distribution of YFV during the current outbreak in southeastern Brazil. To gain insights into the routes of YFV introduction and dispersion, we tracked the virus by sequencing YFV genomes sampled from non-human primates and infected patients from the southeastern region. Our study provides an understanding of how YFV initiates transmission in new Brazilian regions and illustrates that near-real time genomics in the field can augment traditional approaches to infectious disease surveillance and control.

microbiology↗
bioRxiv2019

Genomic Surveillance of Yellow Fever Virus Epidemic Waves in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017 - 2018

Sao Paulo (SP), a densely inhabited state in southeast Brazil that contains the fourth most populated city in the world, recently experienced its largest yellow fever virus (YFV) outbreak in decades. YFV does not normally circulate extensively in SP, so most people were unvaccinated when the outbreak began. Surveillance in non-human primates (NHPs) is important for determining the magnitude and geographic extent of an epizootic, thereby helping to evaluate the risk of YFV spillover to humans. Data from infected NHPs can give more accurate insights into YFV spread than when using data from human cases alone. To contextualise human cases, identify epizootic foci and uncover the rate and direction of YFV spread in SP, we generated and analysed virus genomic data and epizootic case data from NHP in SP. We report the occurrence of three spatiotemporally distinct phases of the outbreak in SP prior to February 2018. We generated 51 new virus genomes from YFV positive cases identified in 23 different municipalities in SP, mostly sampled from non-human primates between October 2016 and January 2018. Although we observe substantial heterogeneity in lineage dispersal velocities between phylogenetic branches, continuous phylogeographic analyses of generated YFV genomes suggest that YFV lineages spread in Sao Paulo state at a mean rate of approximately 1km per day during all phases of the outbreak. Viral lineages from the first epizootic phase in northern Sao Paulo subsequently dispersed towards the south of the state to cause the second and third epizootic phases there. This alters our understanding of how YFV was introduced into the densely populated south of SP state. Our results shed light on the sylvatic transmission of yellow fever in highly fragmented forested regions in SP state and highlight the importance of continued surveillance of zoonotic pathogens in sentinel species. Authors SummarySince July 2016, the southeast region of Brazil has experienced the largest yellow fever virus (YFV) outbreak in decades. Sao Paulo is the most densely populated state in southeast Brazil. The outbreak has caused serious public health concern in the state, as YFV does not normally circulate widely there and most of the 21 million inhabitants were correspondingly unvaccinated against YFV when the outbreak began. In Brazil, YFV typically circulates among non-human primates, and human cases represent isolated spillover events from this predominantly sylvatic cycle. Understanding the epidemiological dynamics and spread of YFV in non-human primates is therefore critical for contextualising human cases, and guiding vaccination strategies that can better protect local human populations. Here, we aim to contextualise human cases, identify epizootic foci and uncover the rate and direction of YFV spread in SP. We analyse the geographic and temporal distribution of observed cases of YFV in non-human primates in Sao Paulo state, and identify three distinct phases of the epizootic. We generate sequence data from 51 YFV-positive cases and perform phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses aimed at understanding the spatial spread of YFV in Sao Paulo state. Analyses of these data indicate that YFV spread from the north of Sao Paulo state into more densely populated southern regions. Although we observe substantial heterogeneity in the rate at which different sampled YFV lineages spread, the typical rate of spread was low with a mean rate of ~1 km per day. This is consistent with a scenario in which the majority of transmission events occurred between non-human primates and sylvatic vectors across forested patches. Article Summary LineGenomic surveillance of yellow fever in Sao Paulo during the 2016-2018 epizootic

epidemiology↗
bioRxiv2019

Emergence of the Zika virus Asian lineage in Angola

Research In ContextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSWe searched PubMed without language restrictions using the keywords Zika and Africa for papers published to October 2018. We also checked available Situation Report publications from WHO for evidence of Zika virus (ZIKV) or congenital Zika disease in Africa. ZIKV African lineage has been detected within Africa since the mid 20th century, yet evidence for spread of the ZIKV Asian lineage within Africa is limited. Two countries in Africa (Cabo Verde and Angola) have reported ZIKV cases that are believed to be caused by a newly introduced Asian lineage virus. Sequence data are critical for confirming and understanding the spread of ZIKV Asian lineage within Africa, but these data are currently limited to a single 193bp fragment of the ZIKV NS1 gene from Angola. In addition, whilst epidemiological data on ZIKV and suspected microcephaly cases have been reported in detail from Cabo Verde, data from Angola are extremely limited.\n\nAdded value of this studyWe provide a detailed report of detected ZIKV acute cases and suspected microcephaly cases in Angola. We sequence ZIKV genomes from three acutely infected cases. These represent the first three Asian lineage genomes available from Africa, one of which was acquired from a baby with confirmed microcephaly. Analysis of these sequences suggests that ZIKV may have been introduced to Angola between July 2015 and June 2016, after which it likely circulated for at least one year. This provides the first genetic confirmation of autochthonous ZIKV Asian lineage transmission within Africa. We suggest that the virus was more likely introduced to Angola directly from Brazil, rather than from Cabo Verde. Our analyses from Angola, only the second African country to report presence of the Asian virus lineage, therefore improve our understanding of the extent and clinical impact of ZIKV Asian lineage in the continent.\n\nImplications of all the available evidenceThe circulation of ZIKV Asian lineage within parts of sub-Saharan Africa is concerning given the potential for continued viral spread across much of the continent. Available evidence suggests that ZIKV has circulated and caused cases of microcephaly in Cabo Verde and in Angola. Detecting additional ZIKV transmission using only clinical data on suspected microcephaly or clusters of mild illness may be challenging in countries where systems for reporting birth defects are limited and infectious disease burden is high. Further spread of the ZIKV Asian lineage would likely not be detected unless molecular surveillance systems for ZIKV are implemented to routinely monitor ZIKV transmission in Africa. Implementation of such a surveillance system is especially important in countries that are linked by high human mobility to areas that have experienced recent or ongoing outbreaks of ZIKV.\n\nAbstractO_ST_ABSBackgroundC_ST_ABSZika virus (ZIKV) infections and suspected microcephaly cases have been recently reported in Angola, but no data are available on the origins, epidemiology, and diversity of the virus.\n\nMethodsSerum samples from 54 suspected ZIKV cases, 76 suspected microcephaly cases, and 24 mothers of infants with suspected microcephaly were received by the Angolan Ministry of Health. Computed tomographic brain imaging and serological assays (PRNT) were conducted on one microcephalic infant. All sera were tested for ZIKV by RT-qPCR. 349 samples from HIV+ patients and 336 samples from patients suspected of chikungunya virus or dengue virus infection were also tested. Portable sequencing was used to generate Angolan ZIKV genome sequences, including from a ZIKV+ neonate with microcephaly born in Portugal to an Angolan resident. Genetic and mobility data were analysed to investigate the date of introduction and geographic origin of ZIKV in Angola.\n\nFindingsFour autochthonous cases were ZIKV positive via RT-qPCR, with all positive samples collected between December 2016 and June 2017. Viral genomes were generated for two of these cases, and from the neonate with microcephaly identified in Portugal. Genetic analyses and other data indicate that ZIKV was introduced to Angola from Brazil between July 2015 and June 2016. This introduction likely initiated local ZIKV circulation in Angola that continued until June 2017. The scanned microcephaly case showed brain abnormalities consistent with congenital Zika syndrome and serological evidence for maternal ZIKV infection.\n\nInterpretationOur analyses confirm the autochthonous transmission of the ZIKV Asian lineage in continental Africa. Conducting ZIKV surveillance throughout Africa is critical in the light of presented evidence for autochthonous ZIKV transmission in Angola, and associated microcephaly cases.\n\nFundingRoyal Society, Wellcome Trust, CNPq, CAPES, ERC, Oxford Martin School, Global Challenges Research Fund, Africa Oxford, and John Fell Fund.

epidemiology↗
bioRxiv2018

Chikungunya virus outbreak in the Amazon region: replacement of the Asian genotype by an ECSA lineage

BackgroundSince its first detection in the Caribbean in late 2013, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has affected 51 countries in the Americas. The CHIKV epidemic in the Americas was caused by the CHIKV-Asian genotype. In August 2014, local transmission of the CHIKV-Asian genotype was detected in the Brazilian Amazon region. However, a distinct lineage, the CHIKV-East-Central-South-America (ECSA)-genotype, was detected nearly simultaneously in Feira de Santana, Bahia state, northeast Brazil. The genomic diversity and the dynamics of CHIKV in the Brazilian Amazon region remains poorly understood despite its importance to better understand the epidemiological spread and public health impact of CHIKV in the country.\n\nMethodology/Principal FindingsWe report a large CHIKV outbreak (5,928 notified cases between August 2014 and August 2018) in Boa vista municipality, capital city of Roraimas state, located in the Brazilian Amazon region. In just 48 hours, we generated 20 novel CHIKV-ECSA genomes from the Brazilian Amazon region using MinION portable genome sequencing. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that despite an early introduction of the Asian genotype in 2015 in Roraima, the large CHIKV outbreak in 2017 in Boa Vista was caused by an ECSA-lineage most likely introduced from northeastern Brazil.\n\nEpidemiological analyses suggest a basic reproductive number of R0 of 1.66, which translates in an estimated 39 (95% CI: 36 to 45) % of Roraimas population infected with CHIKV-ECSA. Finally, we find a strong association between Google search activity and the local laboratory-confirmed CHIKV cases in Roraima.\n\nConclusions/SignificanceThis study highlights the potential of combining traditional surveillance with portable genome sequencing technologies and digital epidemiology to inform public health surveillance in the Amazon region. Our data reveal a large CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Boa Vista, limited potential for future CHIKV outbreaks, and indicate a replacement of the Asian genotype by the ECSA genotype in the Amazon region.\n\nAuthor SummaryUntil the end of 2017, Brazil notified the highest number of infections caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the Americas. We investigated a large CHIKV outbreak in Boa vista municipality in the Brazilian Amazon region. Rapid portable genome sequencing of 20 novel isolates and subsequent genetic analysis revealed that ECSA lineage was introduced from northeastern Brazil to Roraima around July 2016. Epidemiological analyses suggest a basic reproductive number of R0 of 1.66, which suggests that approximately 39% of Roraimas population was infected with CHIKV-ECSA. Given the dominance of the CHIKV-Asian genotype in the Americas, our data highlights the rapid spread of a less understood and poorly characterized CHIKV-ECSA genotype in Brazil. Investigations on potential associations between public health impact of CHIKV and genetic diversity of circulating strains are warranted to better evaluate its impact in Brazil and beyond.

epidemiology↗
bioRxiv2018

Parallel Evolution and the Emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A Viruses

Parallel molecular evolution and adaptation are important phenomena commonly observed in viruses. Here we exploit parallel molecular evolution to understand virulence evolution in avian influenza viruses (AIV). Highly-pathogenic AIVs independently evolve from low-pathogenic ancestors via acquisition of a polybasic cleavage sites (pCS). Why some AIV lineages but not others evolve in this way is unknown. We hypothesise that the parallel emergence of highly-pathogenic AIV may be facilitated by permissive or compensatory mutations occurring across the AIV genome. We combined phylogenetic, statistical and structural approaches to discover parallel mutations in AIV genomes associated with the highly-pathogenic phenotype. Parallel mutations were screened using a new statistical test of mutation-phenotype association and further evaluated in the contexts of positive selection and protein function. The mutational panel we present reveals new links between virulence evolution and other viral traits and raises the possibility of predicting aspects of AIV evolution.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2018

Genomic and epidemiological monitoring of yellow fever virus transmission potential

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic that began in Dec 2016 in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes sp. vectors highlights the urgent need to monitor the risk of re-establishment of domestic YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age- and sex-distribution of human cases in Brazil is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally using a new protocol reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission restricted to Minas Gerais, followed in late 2016 by a rise in viral spillover to humans, and the southwards spatial expansion of the epidemic towards previously YFV-free areas. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real-time, contributing to the global strategy of eliminating future yellow fever epidemics.

epidemiology↗
bioRxiv2017

Molecular evolution, diversity and adaptation of H7N9 influenza A viruses in China

A novel H7N9 avian influenza virus has caused five human epidemics in China since 2013. The substantial increase in prevalence and the emergence of antigenically divergent or highly pathogenic (HP) H7N9 strains during the current outbreak raises concerns about the epizootic-potential of these viruses. Here, we investigate the evolution and adaptation of H7N9 by combining publicly available data with newly generated virus sequences isolated in Guangdong between 2015-2017. Phylogenetic analyses show that currently-circulating H7N9 viruses belong to distinct lineages with differing spatial distributions. Using ancestral sequence reconstruction and structural modelling we have identified parallel amino-acid changes on multiple separate lineages. Furthermore, we infer mutations in HA primarily occur at sites involved in receptor-recognition and/or antigenicity. We also identify seven new HP strains, which likely emerged from viruses circulating in eastern Guangdong around March 2016 and is further associated with a high rate of adaptive molecular evolution.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2017

Emergence and persistence of the Chikungunya virus East-Central-South-African genotype in Northeast Brazil

We investigate an outbreak of exanthematous illness in Maceio, Alagoas, using molecular surveillance. Of 273 samples, 76% tested RT-qPCR positive for Chikungunya virus. Phylogenetic analysis reveals that the outbreak was caused by the East-Central-South-African genotype, and that this lineage has likely persisted since mid-2014 in Northeast Brazil.\n\nArticle summary lineTransmission of the Chikungunya virus East-Central-South-African genotype has been ongoing in the Northeast region of Brazil since mid-2014.

epidemiology↗
bioRxiv2017

Multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States revealed through genomic epidemiology

Zika virus (ZIKV) is causing an unprecedented epidemic linked to severe congenital syndromes1,2. In July 2016, mosquito-borne ZIKV transmission was first reported in the continental United States and since then, hundreds of locally-acquired infections have been reported in Florida3. To gain insights into the timing, source, and likely route(s) of introduction of ZIKV into the continental United States, we tracked the virus from its first detection in Miami, Florida by direct sequencing of ZIKV genomes from infected patients and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. We show that at least four distinct ZIKV introductions contributed to the outbreak in Florida and that local transmission likely started in the spring of 2016 - several months before its initial detection. By analyzing surveillance and genetic data, we discovered that ZIKV moved among transmission zones in Miami. Our analyses show that most introductions are phylogenetically linked to the Caribbean, a finding corroborated by the high incidence rates and traffic volumes from the region into the Miami area. By comparing mosquito abundance and travel flows, we describe the areas of southern Florida that are especially vulnerable to ZIKV introductions. Our study provides a deeper understanding of how ZIKV initiates and sustains transmission in new regions.

epidemiology↗
bioRxiv2017

Epidemic establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas

Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission in the Americas was first confirmed in May 2015 in Northeast Brazil1. Brazil has the highest number of reported ZIKV cases worldwide (>200,000 by 24 Dec 20162) as well as the greatest number of cases associated with microcephaly and other birth defects (2,366 confirmed cases by 31 Dec 20162). Following the initial detection of ZIKV in Brazil, 47 countries and territories in the Americas have reported local ZIKV transmission, with 22 of these reporting ZIKV-associated severe disease3. Yet the origin and epidemic history of ZIKV in Brazil and the Americas remain poorly understood, despite the value of such information for interpreting past trends in reported microcephaly. To address this we generated 53 complete or partial ZIKV genomes, mostly from Brazil, including data generated by the ZiBRA project - a mobile genomics lab that travelled across Northeast Brazil in 2016. One sequence represents the earliest confirmed ZIKV infection in Brazil. Joint analyses of viral genomes with ecological and epidemiological data estimate that the ZIKV epidemic first became established in NE Brazil by March 2014 and likely disseminated from there, both nationally and internationally, before the first detection of ZIKV in the Americas. Estimated dates of the international spread of ZIKV from Brazil coincide with periods of high vector suitability in recipient regions and indicate the duration of pre-detection cryptic transmission in those regions. NE Brazils role in the establishment of ZIKV in the Americas is further supported by geographic analysis of ZIKV transmission potential and by estimates of the virus basic reproduction number.\n\nOne Sentence SummaryVirus genomes reveal the establishment of Zika virus in Northeast Brazil and the Americas, and provide an appropriate timeframe for baseline (pre-Zika) microcephaly in different regions.

genomics↗