Chance and contingency in B cell evolution limit the similarity of antibody responses to infection across individuals
Antibodies result from the competition of B cell lineages evolving under selection for improved antigen recognition, a process known as affinity maturation. High-affinity antibodies to pathogens such as HIV, influenza, and SARS-CoV-2 are frequently reported to arise from B cells whose receptors, the precursors to antibodies, are encoded by particular immunoglobulin alleles. This raises the possibility that the presence of particular germline alleles in the B cell repertoire is a major determinant of the quality of the antibody response. Alternatively, initial differences in germline alleles propensities to form high-affinity receptors might be overcome by chance events during affinity maturation. We first investigate these scenarios in simulations: when germline-encoded fitness differences are large relative to the rate and effect size variation of somatic mutations, the same germline alleles persistently dominate the response of different individuals. In contrast, if germline-encoded advantages can be easily overcome by subsequent mutations, allele usage becomes increasingly divergent over time, a pattern we then observe in mice experimentally infected with influenza virus. We investigated whether affinity maturation might nonetheless strongly select for particular amino acid motifs across diverse genetic backgrounds, but we found no evidence of convergence to similar CDR3 sequences or amino acid substitutions. These results suggest that although germline-encoded specificities can lead to similar immune responses between individuals, diverse evolutionary routes to high affinity limit the genetic predictability of responses to infection and vaccination. Author SummaryAntibodies arise as B cell receptors encoded by the stochastic recombination of immunoglobulin genes. While those genes evolve over millions of years, the receptors themselves evolve within weeks as B cells compete under selection for improved antigen recognition. This competition shapes the response to infection and vaccination; how much the outcome depends on the initial choice of immunoglobulin genes versus subsequent receptor evolution is an open question that informs the predictability of the immune response and the long-term evolution of immunoglobulins. In simulations, we show that immunoglobulin genes with hardcoded specificity for the antigen can lead to either transient or persistent similarity in the response of different individuals. When the initial advantage is large relative to the effects of mutation, B cells using the same genes consistently dominate the response across individuals. Weaker initial advantages lead to similar responses early on but are later overcome by B cell evolution playing out differently in each individual due to chance events. We observe such increasingly divergent responses in mice infected with influenza virus. While long-term selection might hardcode specificities for particular pathogens on immunoglobulin genes, our results suggest diverse paths to potent antibodies can nonetheless limit the predictability of the response.