Biology subjects

Stevenson, M. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Stevenson, M. A..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

A real-time forecasting framework for emerging infectious diseases affecting animal populations

Infectious disease forecasting has become increasingly important in public health, as demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, forecasting tools for emergency animal diseases, particularly those offering real-time decision support when parameters governing disease dynamics are unknown, remain limited. We introduce a generalised modelling framework for near-real-time forecasting of the temporal and spatial spread of infectious livestock diseases using data from the early stages of an outbreak. We applied the framework to the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in Australia, generating prediction targets at three timepoints across four regional clusters. Our targets included future daily case counts, outbreak size, peak timing and duration, and spatial distributions of future spread. We evaluated how well the forecasts predicted daily cases and the spatial distribution of case counts, using skill scores as a benchmark for future model improvements. Forecast accuracy, certainty, and skill improved significantly after the outbreaks peak, while early predictions were more variable, suggesting that pre-peak forecasts should be interpreted with caution. Spatial forecasts maintained positive skill throughout the outbreak, supporting their use in guiding response priorities. This framework provides a tool for real-time decision-making during livestock disease outbreaks and establishes a foundation for future refinements and applications to other animal diseases.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2022

Ablative radiotherapy improves survival in autochthonous cancer mouse models

Genetically engineered mouse models (GEMMs) of cancer are powerful tools to study mechanisms of disease progression and therapy response, yet little is known about how these models respond to multimodality therapy used for curative intent in patients. Radiation therapy (RT) is frequently used to treat localized cancers with curative intent, delay progression of oligometastases, and palliate symptoms of metastatic disease. RT can be combined with surgery, systemic therapy, and/or immunotherapy for definitive treatment of solid tumors. Here we report the development, testing, and validation of a murine platform that faithfully emulates human stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR). We demonstrate that SABR regimens used in clinical practice can be effectively delivered in mouse models and establish the intestinal tract as the dose limiting organ for abdominopelvic radiation with notable, but transient, lymphodepletion. SABR alters tumor stroma and immune environment, improves survival in GEMMs of primary prostate and colorectal cancer, and synergizes with androgen deprivation in prostate cancer. While SABR is capable of fully ablating xenografts it is unable to completely eradicate disease in GEMMs. These data show that some GEMMs are resistant to curative therapy suggesting the existence of treatment-resistant persister cells in these models.

cancer biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Serum-free medium increases the replication rate of the avian coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus in chicken embryo kidney cells

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), an avian coronavirus, can be isolated and cultured in tracheal organ cultures (TOCs), embryonated eggs and cell cultures. TOCs and embryonated eggs are commonly used for viral isolation but use of these is laborious and expensive. Cell cultures have been used only with IBV strains that have previously been adapted to grow under laboratory conditions, and not for primary isolation. Previous studies using the coronavirus porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) have suggested that foetal bovine serum (FBS), a common component of cell culture media, can inhibit the adsorption of coronaviruses onto the host cell membrane receptors. In the present study, the replication of IBV in primary chicken embryo kidney (CEK) cell cultures and the Leghorn hepatocellular carcinoma (LMH) cell line was examined using two different cell culture media, one containing FBS and the other containing yeast extract (YE). A reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) assay was used to quantify viral RNA copies in cell lysates. The highest concentrations of viral genomes were observed when the cell culture medium did not contain FBS. Examination of the infectivity of virus grown in CEK cell cultures was examined by titration in embryonated chicken eggs, demonstrating that the cell lysate from CEK cell cultures in medium without FBS contained a higher median embryo infectious dose (EID50) than that from CEK cell cultures in medium containing FBS. These results suggest that improved replication of IBV in cell cultures can be achieved by the omission of FBS from the cell culture medium. This may enhance the potential for production of vaccines in cell culture and facilitate the isolation of emergent IBV strains in cell cultures.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2020

NON-AVIAN DINOSAUR EGGSHELL CALCITE CONTAINS ANCIENT, ENDOGENOUS AMINO ACIDS

Rates of peptide bond hydrolysis and other diagenetic reactions are not favourable for Mesozoic protein survival. Proteins hydrolyse into peptide fragments and free amino acids that, in open systems such as bone, can leach from the specimen and be further degraded. However, closed systems are more likely to retain degradation products derived from endogenous proteins. Amino acid racemisation data in experimental and subfossil material suggests that mollusc shell and avian eggshell calcite crystals can demonstrate closed system behaviour, retaining endogenous amino acids. Here, high-performance liquid chromatography reveals that the intra-crystalline fraction of Late Cretaceous (estimated ~80 Ma) titanosaur sauropod eggshell is enriched in some of the most stable amino acids (Glx, Gly, Ala, and possibly Val) and those that racemise are fully racemic, despite being some of the slowest racemising amino acids. These results are consistent with degradation trends deduced from modern, thermally matured, sub-fossil, and ~3.8 Ma avian eggshell, as well as ~30 Ma calcitic mollusc opercula. Selective preservation of certain fully racemic amino acids, which do not racemise in-chain, along with similar concentrations of free versus total hydrolysable amino acids, likely suggests complete hydrolysis of original peptides. Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry supports this hypothesis by failing to detect any non-contamination peptide sequences from the Mesozoic eggshell. Pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry reveals pyrolysates consistent with amino acids as well as aliphatic hydrocarbon homologues that are not present in modern eggshell, suggestive of kerogen formation deriving from eggshell lipids. Raman spectroscopy yields bands consistent with various organic molecules, possibly including N-bearing molecules or geopolymers. These closed-system amino acids are possibly the most thoroughly supported non-avian dinosaur endogenous protein-derived constituents, at least those that have not undergone oxidative condensation with other classes of biomolecules. Biocrystal matrices can help preserve mobile organic molecules by trapping them (perhaps with the assistance of resistant organic polymers), but trapped organics are nevertheless prone to diagenetic degradation even if such reactions might be slowed in exceptional circumstances. The evidence for complete hydrolysis and degradation of most amino acids in the eggshell raises concern about the validity of reported polypeptide sequences from open-system non-avian dinosaur bone and other Mesozoic fossils.

paleontology↗

bioRxiv2019

Transmission network reconstruction for foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks incorporating farm-level covariates

Transmission network modelling to infer who infected whom in infectious disease outbreaks is a highly active area of research. Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease have been a key focus of transmission network models that integrate genomic and epidemiological data. The aim of this study was to extend Laus systematic Bayesian inference framework to incorporate additional parameters representing predominant species and numbers of animals held on a farm.\n\nLaus Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was reformulated, verified and pseudo-validated on simulated outbreaks populated with demographic data Japan and Australia. The modified model was then implemented on genomic and epidemiological data from the 2010 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan, and outputs compared to those from the SCOTTI model implemented in BEAST2.\n\nThe modified model achieved improvements in overall accuracy when tested on the simulated outbreaks. When implemented on the actual outbreak data from Japan, infected farms that held predominantly pigs were estimated to have five times the transmissibility of infected cattle farms and be 49% less susceptible. The farm-level incubation period was 1 day shorter than the latent period, the timing of the seeding of the outbreak in Japan was inferred, as were key linkages between clusters and features of farms involved in widespread dissemination of this outbreak. To improve accessibility the modified model has been implemented as the R package BORIS for use in future outbreaks.

microbiology↗