Biology subjects

Stephan, K.

Publications and source records attributed to Stephan, K..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2020

An Introduction to Thermodynamic Integration and Application to Dynamic Causal Models

In generative modeling of neuroimaging data, such as dynamic causal modeling (DCM), one typically considers several alternative models, either to determine the most plausible explanation for observed data (Bayesian model selection) or to account for model uncertainty (Bayesian model averaging). Both procedures rest on estimates of the model evidence, a principled trade-off between model accuracy and complexity. In the context of DCM, the log evidence is usually approximated using variational Bayes. Although this approach is highly efficient, it makes distributional assumptions and is vulnerable to local extrema. This paper introduces the use of thermodynamic integration (TI) for Bayesian model selection and averaging in the context of DCM. TI is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling which is asymptotically exact but orders of magnitude slower than variational Bayes. In this paper, we explain the theoretical foundations of TI, covering key concepts such as the free energy and its origins in statistical physics. Our aim is to convey an in-depth understanding of the method starting from its historical origin in statistical physics. In addition, we demonstrate the practical application of TI via a series of examples which serve to guide the user in applying this method. Furthermore, these examples demonstrate that, given an efficient implementation and hardware capable of parallel processing, the challenge of high computational demand can be overcome successfully. The TI implementation presented in this paper is freely available as part of the open source software TAPAS. Author summaryWhen fitting computational models to data in the setting of Bayesian inference, a user has the choice between two broad classes of algorithms: variational inference and Monte Carlo simulation. While both methods have advantages and drawbacks, variational inference has become standard in the domain of modelling directed brain connectivity due to its computational efficiency, especially when the challenges to select between competing hypotheses that explain the observed data. By contrast, the high computational demand by Monte Carlo methods has so far prevented their widespread use for inference on brain connectivity, despite their capability to overcome some of the shortcomings of variational inference. In this paper, we introduce the user to thermodynamic integration (TI), a Monte Carlo method designed for model fitting and model selection. By covering its foundations and historical origins in statistical physics, we hope to convey an in-depth understanding of TI that goes beyond a purely technical treatment. In addition, we also provide examples for concrete applications, demonstrating that, given an efficient implementation and up-to-date hardware, the challenge of high computational demand can be overcome successfully.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2020

Decadal changes in fire frequencies shift tree communities and functional traits

Global change has resulted in chronic shifts in fire regimes, increasing fire frequency in some regions and decreasing it in others. Predicting the response of ecosystems to changing fire frequencies is challenging because of the multi-decadal timescales over which fire effects emerge and the variability in environmental conditions, fire types, and plant composition across biomes. Here, we address these challenges using surveys of tree communities across 29 sites that experienced multi-decadal alterations in fire frequencies spanning ecosystems and environmental conditions. Relative to unburned plots, more frequently burned plots had lower tree basal area and stem densities that compounded over multiple decades: average fire frequencies reduced basal area by only 4% after 16 years but 57% after 64 years, relative to unburned plots. Fire frequency had the largest effects on basal area in savanna ecosystems and in sites with strong wet seasons. Analyses of tree functional-trait data across North American sites revealed that frequently burned plots had tree communities dominated by species with low biomass nitrogen and phosphorus content and with more efficient nitrogen acquisition through ectomycorrhizal symbioses (rising from 85% to nearly 100%). Our data elucidate the impact of long-term fire regimes on tree community structure and composition, with the magnitude of change depending on climate, vegetation type, and fire history. The effects of widespread changes in fire regimes underway today will manifest in decades to come and have long-term consequences for carbon storage and nutrient cycling.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Subjective estimates of uncertainty and volatility during gambling predict impulsivity after subthalamic deep brain stimulation for Parkinson’s disease

1Subthalamic deep brain stimulation (STN-DBS) for Parkinsons disease may modulate chronometric and instrumental aspects of choice behaviour, including motor inhibition, decisional slowing, and value sensitivity. However, it is not well known whether STN-DBS affects more complex aspects of decision-making, such as the influence of subjective estimates of uncertainty on choices. In this study, thirty-eight participants with Parkinsons disease played a virtual casino prior to subthalamic DBS (whilst on medication) and again, three-months postoperatively (whilst on stimulation). At the group level, there was a small but statistically significant postoperative decrease in impulsivity, as quantified by the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS). The gambling behaviour of participants (bet increases, slot machine switches and double or nothing gambles) was associated with this self-reported measure of impulsivity. However, there was a large variance in outcome amongst participants, and we were interested in whether individual differences in subjective estimates of uncertainty (specifically, volatility) were related to differences in pre- and postoperative impulsivity. To examine these individual differences, we fit a computational model (the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter, HGF), to choices made during slot machine game play as well as a simpler reinforcement learning model based on the Rescorla-Wagner formalism. The HGF was superior in accounting for the behaviour of our participants, suggesting that participants incorporated beliefs about environmental uncertainty when updating their beliefs about gambling outcome and translating these beliefs into action. A specific aspect of subjective uncertainty, the participants estimate of the tendency of the slot machines winning probability to change (volatility), increased subsequent to DBS. Additionally, the decision temperature of the response model decreased post-operatively, implying greater stochasticity in the belief-to-choice mapping of participants. Model parameter estimates were significantly associated with impulsivity; specifically, increased uncertainty was related to increased postoperative impulsivity. Moreover, changes in these parameter estimates were significantly associated with the maximum post-operative change in impulsivity over a six month follow up period. Our findings suggest that impulsivity in persons with Parkinsons disease may be influenced by subjective estimates of uncertainty (environmental volatility) and implicate a role for the subthalamic nucleus in the modulation of outcome certainty. Furthermore, our work outlines a possible approach to characterising those persons who become more impulsive after subthalamic DBS, an intervention in which non-motor outcomes can be highly variable.

neuroscience↗