Biology subjects

Spence, J. P.

Publications and source records attributed to Spence, J. P..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Coalescent-Based Time-Stratified Statistics Reveal Population Structure Dynamics using the Ancestral Recombination Graph

Many questions in population genetics require reconstructing evolutionary history through time, such as inferring how population structure has changed throughout the past. Yet, many existing approaches have only an implicit temporal component, using quantities such as allele frequency or haplotype length as rough proxies for age. Recent advances in the inference of Ancestral Recombination Graphs (ARGs) have made it possible to estimate the entire sequence of local genealogies along the genome. These genealogies explicitly encode how samples are related to each other at different time points in the past, enabling the inference of how population structure has changed over time. To this end, recent work has used ARGs to define time-stratified versions of widely-used population genetics summary statistics in an attempt to capture the population structure present within a particular time window. Here, we show that naive approaches result in statistics that cannot be interpreted solely in terms of the population structure present within the time window they are targeting. To address this problem, we introduce a framework of coalescent-based time-stratified statistics, which use coalescence probabilities to partition classical summary statistics into interval-specific contributions. Using coalescent simulations, we demonstrate that these statistics accurately isolate population structure at different temporal depths and avoid spurious signals. Our results highlight the necessity of integrating coalescent theory into ARG-based temporal analyses and provide a principled and practical foundation for studying the dynamics of population structure through time.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Genetic architectures of brain-related traits are shaped by strong selective constraints

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified hundreds of significant loci for psychiatric disorders, yet the strength of these associations remains modest compared to other human complex traits with similar numbers of hits. Whether this pattern reflects statistical artifacts or real biological differences -- and, if the latter, what underlies it -- remains unclear. In addition to psychiatric disorders, we find that other traits with functional enrichment in the central nervous system (CNS), whether binary or quantitative, also share similar genetic architectures, characterized by GWAS hits of limited statistical significance and generally higher allele frequencies. To robustly compare traits that differ in GWAS statistical power, we demonstrate how binarizing a quantitative trait reduces power. This loss of power can be replicated by a matched "effective sample size" on the liability scale. After matching "effective sample sizes", we show that CNS-enriched traits have large mutational target sizes, with contributing variants and genes experiencing stronger selection than those for other traits. Our findings reveal heterogeneity among diseases and provide insights into traits that more effectively capture fitness-relevant processes. More broadly, our results suggest that the genetic architectures of complex traits are shaped by the tissues through which these traits are mediated.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

High false sign rates in transcriptome-wide association studies

Transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) are widely used to identify genes involved in complex traits and to infer the direction of gene effects on traits. However, despite their popularity, it remains unclear how accurately TWAS recover the true direction of a genes effect on a trait. Here, we estimate the false sign rate (FSR) of TWAS for plasma proteins, leveraging the expectation that increased gene expression should generally increase protein expression. We then extend this framework to complex traits, where loss-of-function burden tests provide the expected direction-of-effect. In both analyses, we observe high discordance with expectations, with TWAS showing an FSR of 23% for plasma proteins and 33% for complex traits. While colocalization-based filtering reduced the FSR, substantial discordance remained, and with substantial loss of recall. However, when we restricted gene-direction assignments for plasma proteins to using only relevant tissues in combination with colocalization-based filtering, the FSR dropped to 11%, and to just 5% if we excluded brain-specific proteins. We propose that much of the sign discordance arises when eQTLs in non-trait-relevant tissues tag GWAS-associated haplotypes via distinct, tightly-linked regulatory variants, yielding spurious TWAS associations with the correct genes but with unreliable direction-of-effect. These findings show that TWAS-based direction-of-effect estimates should be interpreted with caution and raise concerns about the reliability of TWAS more broadly.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2025

Allele Frequencies at Recessive Disease Genes are Mainly Determined by Pleiotropic Effects in Heterozygotes

The classic theory of mutation-selection balance predicts the equilibrium frequency of genetic variation under negative selection. The model predicts a simple relationship between the total frequency of deleterious variants, mutation rate, and strength of selection, with different functions for recessive and (co-)dominant genes. In this study, we investigate whether genes associated with human recessive disorders fit the predictions of this classic model. By comparing observed frequencies of loss of function variants (LoFs) to those expected under mutation-selection balance we find that, for nearly all recessive genes, the observed frequencies are too low to be explained by purely recessive selection. Analyzing the effects of heterozygous LoFs on quantitative traits from the UK Biobank, we find that recessive disease genes have widespread quantitative effects in heterozygotes. Together, these results suggest that most selection experienced by pathogenic mutations in recessive disease genes may be due to stabilizing selection in heterozygotes. We conclude that very few human genes follow the classic model of recessive mutation-selection balance.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2025

Regulatory network topology and the genetic architecture of gene expression

In human populations, most of the genetic variance in gene expression can be attributed to trans-acting expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) spread across the genome. However, in practice it is difficult to discover these eQTLs, and their cumulative effects on gene expression and complex traits are yet to be fully understood. Here, we assess how properties of the genetic architecture of gene expression constrain the space of plausible gene regulatory networks. We describe a structured causal model of gene expression regulation and consider how it interacts with biologically relevant properties of the gene regulatory network to alter the genomic distribution of expression heritability. Under our model, we find that the genetic architecture of gene expression is shaped in large part by local network motifs and by hub regulators that shorten paths through the network and act as key sources of trans-acting variance. Further, simulated networks with an enrichment of motifs and hub regulators best recapitulate the distribution of cis and trans heritability of gene expression as measured in a recent twin study. Taken together, our results suggest that the architecture of gene expression is sparser and more pleiotropic across genes than would be suggested by naive models of regulatory networks, which has important implications for future studies of complex traits.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2025

Causal modeling of gene effects from regulators to programs to traits: integration of genetic associations and Perturb-seq

AbstractGenetic association studies provide a unique tool for identifying causal links from genes to human traits and diseases. However, it is challenging to determine the biological mechanisms underlying most associations, and we lack genome-scale approaches for inferring causal mechanistic pathways from genes to cellular functions to traits. Here we propose new approaches to bridge this gap by combining quantitative estimates of gene-trait relationships from loss-of-function burden tests with gene-regulatory connections inferred from Perturb-seq experiments in relevant cell types. By combining these two forms of data, we aim to build causal graphs in which the directional associations of genes with a trait can be explained by their regulatory effects on biological programs or direct effects on the trait. As a proof-of-concept, we constructed a causal graph of the gene regulatory hierarchy that jointly controls three partially co-regulated blood traits. We propose that perturbation studies in trait-relevant cell types, coupled with gene-level effect sizes for traits, can bridge the gap between genetics and biology.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2024

Specificity, length, and luck: How genes are prioritized by rare and common variant association studies

Standard genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and rare variant burden tests are essential tools for identifying trait-relevant genes. Although these methods are conceptually similar, we show by analyzing association studies of 209 quantitative traits in the UK Biobank that they systematically prioritize different genes. This raises the question of how genes should ideally be prioritized. We propose two prioritization criteria: 1) trait importance -- how much a gene quantitatively affects a trait; and 2) trait specificity -- a genes importance for the trait under study relative to its importance across all traits. We find that GWAS prioritize genes near trait-specific variants, while burden tests prioritize trait-specific genes. Because non-coding variants can be context specific, GWAS can prioritize highly pleiotropic genes, while burden tests generally cannot. Both study designs are also affected by distinct trait-irrelevant factors, complicating their interpretation. Our results illustrate that burden tests and GWAS reveal different aspects of trait biology and suggest ways to improve their interpretation and usage.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2024

Genetic diversity loss in the Anthropocene will continue long after habitat destruction ends

Genetic diversity within species is the basis for evolutionary adaptive capacity and has recently been included as a target for protection in the United Nations Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). However, we lack large-scale mathematical frameworks to quantify how much genetic diversity has already been lost, let alone to predict future losses under 21st century conservation scenarios. To fill this gap, we developed an area-based spatio-temporal predictive framework of genetic diversity calibrated with population-scale genomic data of 29 plant and animal species. To estimate present genetic diversity loss with our framework, we used species habitat area and population sizes losses reported in the Living Planet Index, the Red List, and new GBF indicators across 13,808 species for the last 5 decades. Applying our evolutionary framework across these species, we estimate genetic diversity loss lags behind population and habitat area declines, with an estimated current 13-22% {pi} genetic diversity loss. However, we forecast future genetic diversity losses will reach 41-76% even if populations are not further contracted. These results highlight that safeguarding existing habitats is insufficient to maintain the genetic health of species and relying solely on continuous genetic monitoring underestimates lagging long term impacts. Significance statementGenetic diversity is crucial for both species adaptation and survival. Recently, it has been included as a target for protection in the United Nations Global Biodiversity Framework. However, we lack large-scale predictive methods to quantify current and future losses of genetic diversity across species. Here, we develop an area-based spatio-temporal predictive framework trained with high-quality genome-wide data from 29 plant and animal species to enable quantitative predictions of genetic biodiversity at global scales. We infer global genetic diversity losses are beyond the preliminary UN targets to protect 90% of genetic diversity of species, evolutionary models dramatic genetic losses will occur in the future even with habitat protection if populations across species are not recovered.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2024

Estimation of demography and mutation rates from one million haploid genomes

As genetic sequencing costs have plummeted, datasets with sizes previously un-thinkable have begun to appear. Such datasets present new opportunities to learn about evolutionary history, particularly via rare alleles that record the very recent past. However, beyond the computational challenges inherent in the analysis of many large-scale datasets, large population-genetic datasets present theoretical problems. In particular, the majority of population-genetic tools require the assumption that each mutant allele in the sample is the result of a single mutation (the "infinite sites" assumption), which is violated in large samples. Here, we present DR EVIL, a method for estimating mutation rates and recent demographic history from very large samples. DR EVIL avoids the infinite-sites assumption by using a diffusion approximation to a branching-process model with recurrent mutation. The branching-process approach limits the method to rare alleles, but, along with recent results, renders tractable likelihoods with recurrent mutation. We show that DR EVIL performs well in simulations and apply it to rare-variant data from a million haploid samples, identifying a signal of mutation-rate heterogeneity within commonly analyzed classes and predicting that in modern sample sizes, most rare variants at sites with high mutation rates represent the descendants of multiple mutation events.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2024

Gene regulatory network structure informs the distribution of perturbation effects

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) govern many core developmental and biological processes underlying human complex traits. Even with broad-scale efforts to characterize the effects of molecular perturbations and interpret gene coexpression, it remains challenging to infer the architecture of gene regulation in a precise and efficient manner. Key properties of GRNs, like hierarchical structure, modular organization, and sparsity, provide both challenges and opportunities for this objective. Here, we seek to better understand properties of GRNs using a new approach to simulate their structure and model their function. We produce realistic network structures with a novel generating algorithm based on insights from small-world network theory, and we model gene expression regulation using stochastic differential equations formulated to accommodate modeling molecular perturbations. With these tools, we systematically describe the effects of gene knockouts within and across GRNs, finding a subset of networks that recapitulate features of a recent genome-scale perturbation study. With deeper analysis of these exemplar networks, we consider future avenues to map the architecture of gene expression regulation using data from cells in perturbed and unperturbed states, finding that while perturbation data are critical to discover specific regulatory interactions, data from unperturbed cells may be sufficient to reveal regulatory programs.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2024

Conditional frequency spectra as a tool for studying selection on complex traits in biobanks

Natural selection on complex traits is difficult to study in part due to the ascertainment inherent to genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The power to detect a trait-associated variant in GWAS is a function of frequency and effect size -- but for traits under selection, the effect size of a variant determines the strength of selection against it, constraining its frequency. To account for GWAS ascertainment, we propose studying the joint distribution of allele frequencies across populations, conditional on the frequencies in the GWAS cohort. Before considering these conditional frequency spectra, we first characterized the impact of selection and non-equilibrium demography on allele frequency dynamics forwards and backwards in time. We then used these results to understand conditional frequency spectra under realistic human demography. Finally, we investigated empirical conditional frequency spectra for GWAS variants associated with 106 complex traits, finding compelling evidence for either stabilizing or purifying selection. Our results provide insight into polygenic score portability and other properties of variants ascertained with GWAS, highlighting the utility of conditional frequency spectra.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2023

Predicting the effect of CRISPR-Cas9-based epigenome editing

Epigenetic regulation orchestrates mammalian transcription, but functional links between them remain elusive. To tackle this problem, we use epigenomic and transcriptomic data from 13 ENCODE cell types to train machine learning models to predict gene expression from histone post-translational modifications (PTMs), achieving transcriptome-wide correlations of [~] 0.70 - 0.79 for most cell types. Our models recapitulate known associations between histone PTMs and expression patterns, including predicting that acetylation of histone subunit H3 lysine residue 27 (H3K27ac) near the transcription start site (TSS) significantly increases expression levels. To validate this prediction experimentally and investigate how natural vs. engineered deposition of H3K27ac might differentially affect expression, we apply the synthetic dCas9-p300 histone acetyltransferase system to 8 genes in the HEK293T cell line and to 5 genes in the K562 cell line. Further, to facilitate model building, we perform MNase-seq to map genome-wide nucleosome occupancy levels in HEK293T. We observe that our models perform well in accurately ranking relative fold-changes among genes in response to the dCas9-p300 system; however, their ability to rank fold-changes within individual genes is noticeably diminished compared to predicting expression across cell types from their native epigenetic signatures. Our findings highlight the need for more comprehensive genome-scale epigenome editing datasets, better understanding of the actual modifications made by epigenome editing tools, and improved causal models that transfer better from endogenous cellular measurements to perturbation experiments. Together these improvements would facilitate the ability to understand and predictably control the dynamic human epigenome with consequences for human health.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2023

Scaling the Discrete-time Wright Fisher model to biobank-scale datasets

The Discrete-Time Wright Fisher (DTWF) model and its large population diffusion limit are central to population genetics. These models describe the forward-in-time evolution of the frequency of an allele in a population and can include the fundamental forces of genetic drift, mutation, and selection. Computing like-lihoods under the diffusion process is feasible, but the diffusion approximation breaks down for large sample sizes or in the presence of strong selection. Unfortunately, existing methods for computing likelihoods under the DTWF model do not scale to current exome sequencing sample sizes in the hundreds of thousands. Here we present an algorithm that approximates the DTWF model with provably bounded error and runs in time linear in the size of the population. Our approach relies on two key observations about Binomial distributions. The first is that Binomial distributions are approximately sparse. The second is that Binomial distributions with similar success probabilities are extremely close as distributions, allowing us to approximate the DTWF Markov transition matrix as a very low rank matrix. Together, these observations enable matrix-vector multiplication in linear (as opposed to the usual quadratic) time. We prove similar properties for Hypergeometric distributions, enabling fast computation of likelihoods for subsamples of the population. We show theoretically and in practice that this approximation is highly accurate and can scale to population sizes in the billions, paving the way for rigorous biobank-scale population genetic inference. Finally, we use our results to estimate how increasing sample sizes will improve the estimation of selection coefficients acting on loss-of-function variants. We find that increasing sample sizes beyond existing large exome sequencing cohorts will provide essentially no additional information except for genes with the most extreme fitness effects.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Bayesian estimation of gene constraint from an evolutionary model with gene features

Measures of selective constraint on genes have been used for many applications including clinical interpretation of rare coding variants, disease gene discovery, and studies of genome evolution. However, widely-used metrics are severely underpowered at detecting constraint for the shortest ~25% of genes, potentially causing important pathogenic mutations to be over-looked. We developed a framework combining a population genetics model with machine learning on gene features to enable accurate inference of an interpretable constraint metric, shet. Our estimates outperform existing metrics for prioritizing genes important for cell essentiality, human disease, and other phenotypes, especially for short genes. Our new estimates of selective constraint should have wide utility for characterizing genes relevant to human disease. Finally, our inference framework, GeneBayes, provides a flexible platform that can improve estimation of many gene-level properties, such as rare variant burden or gene expression differences.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2023

A comprehensive rRNA variation atlas in health and disease

Ribosomal DNA and RNA (rDNA and rRNA) sequences are usually discarded from sequencing analyses. But with hundreds of copies of rDNA genes it is unknown whether they possess sequence variations that form different types of ribosomes that affect human physiology and disease. Here, we developed an algorithm for variant-calling between paralog genes (termed RGA) and compared rDNA variations found in short- and long-read sequencing data from the 1,000 Genomes Project (1KGP) and Genome In A Bottle (GIAB). We additionally developed a novel protocol for long-read sequencing full-length rRNA (RIBO-RT) from actively translating ribosomes. Our analyses identified hundreds of rDNA variants, most of which, surprisingly, are short insertion-deletions (indels) and dozens of highly abundant rRNA variants that are incorporated into translationally active ribosomes. To visualize variant ribosomes at the single cell level, we developed an in-situ rRNA sequencing method (SWITCH-seq) which revealed that variants are co-expressed within individual cells. Strikingly, by analyzing rDNA, we found that variants assemble into distinct ribosome subtypes. We discovered that these subtypes acquire different rRNA structures by successfully employing dimethyl sulfate (DMS) probing of full length rRNA. With this atlas we investigated rRNA variation changes across human tissues and cancer types. This revealed tissue-specific rRNA subtype expression in endoderm/ectoderm-derived tissues. In cancer, low abundant rRNA variants can become highly expressed, which suggests the presence of cancer-specific ribosomes. Together, this study identifies and comprehensively characterizes the diversity of ribosomes at the level of rRNA variants which is dominated by indel variants, their chromosomal location and unique structure as well as the association of ribosome variation with tissue-specific biology and cancer.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2022

Expanding the stdpopsim species catalog, and lessons learned forrealistic genome simulations

Simulation is a key tool in population genetics for both methods development and empirical research, but producing simulations that recapitulate the main features of genomic data sets remains a major obstacle. Today, more realistic simulations are possible thanks to large increases in the quantity and quality of available genetic data, and to the sophistication of inference and simulation software. However, implementing these simulations still requires substantial time and specialized knowledge. These challenges are especially pronounced for simulating genomes for species that are not well-studied, since it is not always clear what information is required to produce simulations with a level of realism sufficient to confidently answer a given question. The community-developed framework stdpopsim seeks to lower this barrier by facilitating the simulation of complex population genetic models using up-to-date information. The initial version of stdpopsim focused on establishing this framework using six well-characterized model species (Adrion et al., 2020). Here, we report on major improvements made in the new release of stdpopsim (version 0.2), which includes a significant expansion of the species catalog and substantial additions to simulation capabilities. Features added to improve the realism of the simulated genomes include non-crossover recombination and provision of species-specific genomic annotations. Through community-driven efforts, we expanded the number of species in the catalog more than three-fold and broadened coverage across the tree of life. During the process of expanding the catalog, we have identified common sticking points and developed best practices for setting up genome-scale simulations. We describe the input data required for generating a realistic simulation, suggest good practices for obtaining the relevant information from the literature, and discuss common pitfalls and major considerations. These improvements to stdpopsim aim to further promote the use of realistic whole-genome population genetic simulations, especially in non-model organisms, making them available, transparent, and accessible to everyone.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2022

The ENCODE Imputation Challenge: A critical assessment of methods for cross-cell type imputation of epigenomic profiles

Functional genomics experiments are invaluable for understanding mechanisms of gene regulation. However, comprehensively performing all such experiments, even across a fixed set of sample and assay types, is often infeasible in practice. A promising alternative to performing experiments exhaustively is to, instead, perform a core set of experiments and subsequently use machine learning methods to impute the remaining experiments. However, questions remain as to the quality of the imputations, the best approaches for performing imputations, and even what performance measures meaningfully evaluate performance of such models. In this work, we address these questions by comprehensively analyzing imputations from 23 imputation models submitted to the ENCODE Imputation Challenge. We find that measuring the quality of imputations is significantly more challenging than reported in the literature, and is confounded by three factors: major distributional shifts that arise because of differences in data collection and processing over time, the amount of available data per cell type, and redundancy among performance measures. Our systematic analyses suggest several steps that are necessary, but also simple, for fairly evaluating the performance of such models, as well as promising directions for more robust research in this area.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2022

Stable population structure in Europe since the Iron Age, despite high mobility

Ancient DNA research in the past decade has revealed that European population structure changed dramatically in the prehistoric period (14,000-3,000 years before present, YBP), reflecting the widespread introduction of Neolithic farmer and Bronze Age Steppe ancestries. However, little is known about how population structure changed from the historical period onward (3,000 YBP - present). To address this, we collected whole genomes from 204 individuals from Europe and the Mediterranean, many of which are the first historical period genomes from their region (e.g. Armenia and France). We found that most regions show remarkable inter-individual heterogeneity. At least 7% of historical individuals carry ancestry uncommon in the region where they were sampled, some indicating cross-Mediterranean contacts. Despite this high level of mobility, overall population structure across western Eurasia is relatively stable through the historical period up to the present, mirroring geography. We show that, under standard population genetics models with local panmixia, the observed level of dispersal would lead to a collapse of population structure. Persistent population structure thus suggests a lower effective migration rate than indicated by the observed dispersal. We hypothesize that this phenomenon can be explained by extensive transient dispersal arising from drastically improved transportation networks and the Roman Empires mobilization of people for trade, labor, and military. This work highlights the utility of ancient DNA in elucidating finer scale human population dynamics in recent history.

genetics↗