Simonis, J. L. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2020

The influence of data type and functional traits on native bee phenology metrics: Opportunistic versus inventory records

Efforts to understand activity patterns of bees, our most important pollinators, often rely on opportunistically collected museum records to model temporal shifts or declines. This type of data, however, may not be suitable for this purpose given high spatiotemporal variability of native bee activity. By comparing phenological metrics calculated from intensive systematic inventory data with those from opportunistic museum records for bee species spanning a range of functional traits, we explored biases and limitations of data types to determine best practices for bee monitoring and assessment. We compiled half a million records of wild bee occurrence from opportunistic museum collections and six systematic inventory efforts, focusing analyses on 45 well-represented species that spanned five functional traits: sociality, nesting habits, floral specialization, voltinism, and body size. We then used permutation tests to evaluate differences between data types in estimating three phenology metrics: flight duration, number of annual abundance peaks, and date of the highest peak. We used GLMs to test for patterns of data type significance across traits. All 45 species differed significantly in the value of at least one phenology metric depending on the data type used. The date of the highest abundance peak differed for 40 species, flight duration for 34 species, and the number of peaks for 15 species. The number of peaks was more likely to differ between data types for larger bees, and flight duration was more likely to differ for larger bees and specialist bees. Our results reveal a strong influence of data type on phenology metrics that necessitates consideration of data source when evaluating changes in phenological activity, possibly applicable to many taxa. Accurately assessing phenological change may require expanding wild bee monitoring and data sharing.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Developing an automated iterative near-term forecasting system for an ecological study

O_LIMost forecasts for the future state of ecological systems are conducted once and never updated or assessed. As a result, many available ecological forecasts are not based on the most up-to-date data, and the scientific progress of ecological forecasting models is slowed by a lack of feedback on how well the forecasts perform.\nC_LIO_LIIterative near-term ecological forecasting involves repeated daily to annual scale forecasts of an ecological system as new data becomes available and regular assessment of the resulting forecasts. We demonstrate how automated iterative near-term forecasting systems for ecology can be constructed by building one to conduct monthly forecasts of rodent abundances at the Portal Project, a long-term study with over 40 years of monthly data. This system automates most aspects of the six stages of converting raw data into new forecasts: data collection, data sharing, data manipulation, modeling and forecasting, archiving, and presentation of the forecasts.\nC_LIO_LIThe forecasting system uses R code for working with data, fitting models, making forecasts, and archiving and presenting these forecasts. The resulting pipeline is automated using continuous integration (a software development tool) to run the entire pipeline once a week. The cyberinfrastructure is designed for long-term maintainability and to allow the easy addition of new models. Constructing this forecasting system required a team with expertise ranging from field site experience to software development.\nC_LIO_LIAutomated near-term iterative forecasting systems will allow the science of ecological forecasting to advance more rapidly and provide the most up-to-date forecasts possible for conservation and management. These forecasting systems will also accelerate basic science by allowing new models of natural systems to be quickly implemented and compared to existing models. Using existing technology, and teams with diverse skill sets, it is possible for ecologists to build automated forecasting systems and use them to advance our understanding of natural systems.\nC_LI

ecology↗