Biology subjects

Simoncini, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Simoncini, A..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Conserving steppe-land birds under climate change: a gap analysis for the Eurasian Stone-curlew (Burhinus oedicnemus) in the Western Palearctic

Climate change is having dramatic impacts on the distribution of animals. Birds, and especially steppe-land birds, are particularly sensitive to climate change and identifying areas that are critical for their conservation is pivotal, as well as estimating the expected impact on these areas under different climate and land use change scenarios. In-situ climate refugia (areas suitable under both current and future climates) are especially valuable for the conservation of climate-sensitive species, and is therefore important to identify them and evaluate their coverage by protected areas. Via species distribution modelling, we aimed to identify in-situ climate refugia in the Western Palearctic for the Eurasian Stone-curlew Burhinus oedicnemus, an umbrella steppic species of conservation concern. We used a comprehensive dataset of occurrences in the breeding period to fine-tune a Maxent species distribution model and project it under three carbon emission scenarios of increasing severity for the year 2050. We then identified in-situ climate refugia and performed a gap analysis estimating the percentage of refugia falling within the network of currently protected areas. In all modelled future scenarios a northward expansion of suitable breeding habitats was predicted, and suitable areas had similar extents, with a slight increase of the overall suitability under more severe scenarios. According to our results, the Eurasian Stone-curlew has the potential to maintain viable populations in the Western Palearctic, even though dispersal limitations might hinder the colonization of newly suitable breeding areas. In-situ climate refugia were mainly identified outside protected areas, particularly in Northern Africa and the Middle East. Therefore, we advocate targeted actions in climate refugia to promote the conservation of this and other steppe-land species under global environmental change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Projected dynamics of breeding habitat suitability for a steppe-land bird warrant anticipatory conservation actions

Understanding spatial and temporal variations of habitat suitability is fundamental for species conservation under global change. Steppic species are particularly sensitive to anthropogenic change and have undergone large declines in the last decades. We aimed to describe current and future breeding habitat suitability for the Eurasian stone-curlew Burhinus oedicnemus, a steppic species of conservation concern, and to identify critical areas for its conservation. We collected 1628 presence records covering the period 1992-2016. We developed a species distribution model using a dynamic Maxent algorithm and a set of pseudo-absences with a spatial density weighted on a fixed kernel density estimated on the presences, to mitigate the potential sampling bias. We projected this model under a set of carbon emission, socioeconomic and land-use/land-cover scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. Finally, we described the cell-wise and mean change of breeding habitat suitability through consecutive time intervals and identified the areas critical for the species conservation. All scenarios predicted a short-term northward shift of suitable areas, followed by a period of stability. We found no consistent trends in the mean change of breeding habitat suitability, and similar extents of suitable areas under current and future scenarios. Critical areas for the conservation of the species are mainly located in Northern Europe, Israel and parts of North Africa, the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. According to our results, the Eurasian stone-curlew has the potential to maintain viable populations in the Western Palearctic, but dispersal limitations might hinder the colonization of shifted suitable areas. Targeted conservation interventions in the critical areas are therefore recommended to secure the future of the species under global change.

ecology↗