Biology subjects

Sillett, T. S.

Publications and source records attributed to Sillett, T. S..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Modeling two decades of elevational change in endemic bird densities in Hawaiis Kau Rainforest

Protected areas are vital to the recovery of endangered species. Of the 24 remaining endemic passerines in Hawaii, 16 species are endangered or critically endangered. Yet protected areas in the archipelago are changing as a result of climate change and biological invasions. For example, the non-native southern house mosquito (Culex quinquefasciatus), the primary vector of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), has been encroaching upward as higher elevations warm. How the ranges of endemic birds have also shifted their range upward in the Ka[u] Rainforest, the largest native forest on the Island of Hawaii, is not well understood. We used hierarchical distance sampling to characterize how population density has changed from 2002 to 2024 for eight endemic bird species in the Ka[u] Rainforest. For five species, the most parsimonious model included an interaction between year and a quadratic elevation effect. Species that were most common at lower elevations in 2002, e.g., Apapane (Himatione sanguinea), tended to be most common at mid-elevations by 2024. Species that were already most common at higher elevations, such as Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) and Hawaii [A]kepa (Loxops coccineus), tended to decline in density. For example, Iiwi density at 1,530 m declined from 3.31 birds per ha (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.67-4.11) to 1.34 birds per ha (95% CI: 1.05-1.71), and Hawaii [A]kepa were completely extirpated from elevations below 1,530 m by 2024. Our results demonstrate how the elevational ranges of endemic species have shifted in response to climate change, biological invasions, and habitat degradation. Translating these results into conservation measures may require a more thorough investigation of the causal mechanisms of these range shifts with finer scale habitat data, under the same hierarchical modeling framework.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Environmental correlates and functional consequences of bill divergence in island song sparrows

Inferring the environmental selection pressures responsible for phenotypic variation is a challenge in adaptation studies as traits often have multiple functions and are shaped by complex selection regimes. We provide experimental evidence that morphology of the multifunctional avian bill is related to climate, not foraging efficiency, in song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) on the California Channel Islands. Our research builds on a study in song sparrow museum specimens that demonstrated a positive correlation between bill surface area and maximum temperature, suggesting a greater demand for dry heat dissipation in hotter, xeric environments. We sampled contemporary sparrow populations across three climatically distinct islands to test the alternate hypotheses that song sparrow bill morphology is either a product of vegetative differences with functional consequences for foraging efficiency or related to maximum temperature and, consequently, important for thermoregulation. Measurements of >500 live individuals indicated a significant, positive relationship between maximum temperature and bill surface area when correcting for body size. In contrast, maximum bite force, seed extraction time, and vegetation on breeding territories (a proxy for food resources) were not significantly associated with bill dimensions. While we cannot exclude the influence of foraging ability and diet on bill morphology, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that variation in song sparrows need for thermoregulatory capacity across the northern Channel Islands selects for divergence in bill surface area. SUMMARY STATEMENTIsland song sparrow bill differences are correlated with climate, not vegetation, and experimental evidence finds no functional effect on foraging efficiency. This suggests many factors shape this multifunctional trait.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Integrating tracking and resight data from breeding Painted Bunting populations enables unbiased inferences about migratory connectivity and winter range survival

Archival geolocators have transformed the study of small, migratory organisms but analysis of data from these devices requires bias correction because tags are only recovered from individuals that survive and are re-captured at their tagging location. We show that integrating geolocator recovery data and mark-resight data enables unbiased estimates of both migratory connectivity between breeding and non-breeding populations and region-specific survival probabilities for wintering locations. Using simulations, we first demonstrate that an integrated Bayesian model returns unbiased estimates of transition probabilities between seasonal ranges and to determine how different sampling designs influence estimability of transition probabilities. We then parameterize the model with tracking data and mark-resight data from declining Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) populations breeding in the eastern United States, hypothesized to be threatened by the illegal pet trade in parts of their Caribbean, non-breeding range. Consistent with this hypothesis, we found that male buntings wintering in Cuba were 20% less likely to return to the breeding grounds than birds wintering elsewhere in their range. Improving inferences from archival tags through proper data collection and further development of integrated models will advance our understanding of full annual cycle ecology of migratory species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Variance in within-pair reproductive success drives the opportunity for sexual selection annually and over the lifetimes of males in a multi-brooded songbird

In socially monogamous species, male reproductive success consists of within-pair offspring produced with their socially-paired mate(s), and extra-pair offspring produced with additional females throughout the population. Both reproductive pathways offer distinct opportunities for selection in wild populations, as each is composed of separate components of mate attraction, female fecundity, and paternity allocation. Identifying key sources of variance and covariance among these components is a crucial step towards understanding the reproductive strategies that males use to maximize fitness both annually and over their lifetimes. We use 16 years of complete reproductive data from a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) to partition variance in male annual and lifetime reproductive success, and thereby identify if the opportunity for selection varies over the lifetimes of individual males and what reproductive strategies likely favor maximum lifetime fitness. The majority of variance in male reproduction was attributable to within-pair success, but the specific effects of individual components of variance differed between total annual and total lifetime reproductive success. Positive overall lifetime covariance between within-pair and extra-pair components indicates that males able to maximize within-pair success, particularly with double-brooding females, likely achieve higher overall lifetime fitness via both within-pair and extra-pair reproductive pathways.

evolutionary biology↗