Biology subjects

Scott, T. W.

Publications and source records attributed to Scott, T. W..

11 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Efficacy of an attractive lethal ovitrap to reduce populations of Aedes mosquitoes: a controlled trial in Iquitos, Peru

IntroductionDengue, one of the most important arboviral infections worldwide, is transmitted primarily by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a vector closely associated with human habitations. Because vector control is the primary prevention strategy for this disease novel tools are urgently needed. We evaluated an Attractive Lethal OviTrap (ALOT) that targets epidemiologically relevant gravid female mosquitoes for public health impact against dengue disease. MethodsWe conducted a proof-of-concept field efficacy trial in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru, to quantify the reduction of vector density, parity, and sex ratio and symptomatic human dengue infection over a 3.5 year follow-up period. After three baseline entomological surveys in core (753 houses), and buffer (1,549 houses) areas where traps were placed in and around homes, and a control (1,233 houses) area without traps, entomological surveys were carried out every 2 months, and household residents were monitored for dengue disease 3 times a week. Trap maintenance was conducted at 2-3 week intervals by study staff during the first 2.5 years and by residents in the final year. ResultsTotal and female Ae. aegypti abundance demonstrated a strong initial effect with 52% and 47% fewer mosquitoes after trap placement, respectively (Total: RR = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.40 - 0.58, p < 0.001; Females: RR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.43 - 0.66, p < 0.001). The effect diminished significantly, however, over the study period (interaction coefficient = 0.035 per month, p < 0.001; interaction coefficient = 0.030 per month, p < 0.001). Female-to-male ratio decreased after trap deployment and impact on non-Aedes abundance was like that of Aedes. Cumulative symptomatic dengue incidence was 1.40% (95% CI: 1.00%-1.70%) in the ALOT area versus 3.20% (95% CI: 2.60%-3.80%) in the control area, a 56% relative reduction (log-rank {chi}{superscript 2}=30.0, p<0.001). Restricted mean survival time analysis showed participants in the intervention area on average remained dengue-free for 15.5 additional days (95% CI: 11.1-20.0, p<0.001). ConclusionsThe ALOT strategy functioned as predicted, decreasing but not eliminating female vector densities, with a clear public health impact, lowering dengue disease in areas where traps were deployed. Our study also illustrates the challenges associated with conducting large-scale vector control trials and the need to consider programmatic implementation early in the process of bringing a new product to market. Author SummaryDengue is one of the most important mosquito transmitted infections worldwide. Aedes aegypti, the most important species involved, has a unique biology living in containers associated with households. New methods to control this mosquito are needed and we present our evaluation of a novel trap called the Attractive Lethal OviTrap (ALOT) that targets older female mosquitoes that are the most important for dengue disease transmission. We conducted a trial in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru, to measure reductions in mosquito numbers, age, and sex ratio and symptomatic human dengue infections over a 3.5 years. After baseline entomological surveys prior to placing ALOT traps in homes in a treatment area, which included a central core area with 753 houses and a protective buffer area with 1,549 houses areas. We also had a control area without any traps in 1,233 houses. Mosquito surveys were carried out every 2 months, and household residents were monitored for dengue disease 3 times per week. Trap maintenance was conducted at 2 - 3 week intervals by study staff during the first 2.5 years and by residents in the final year. The number of all Ae. aegypti were initially reduced by 52% after trap placement whereas females were reduced by 47%. The effect diminished significantly, however, over the study period. Female-to-male ratio decreased after trap deployment and impact on other mosquito species was like that of Aedes. Dengue incidence was 56% less in the area with traps compared to the control area, estimating that participants in the intervention area on average remained dengue-free for 15.5 additional days. The ALOT strategy functioned as predicted, decreasing but not eliminating female mosquitos and had a clear public health impact, lowering dengue disease in areas where traps were deployed. Our study also illustrates the challenges associated with conducting large-scale vector control trials and the need to consider programmatic implementation early in the process of bringing a new product to market.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Kin-discriminating partner choice promotes the evolution of helping

Kin selection theory predicts that individuals should evolve to help relatives, either by helping indiscriminately in a population where they do not move very far from their relatives, or by discriminating kin and conditionally helping them. It has been argued that, because kin discrimination enables individuals to reduce how helpful they are with some social partners as well increase how helpful they are with others, this could lead to an increase or a decrease in the overall level of helping, depending on the curvature of the function relating the optimal level of help and genetic relatedness. However, this prediction was based on a model in which individuals were not able to choose their social partners but only adjust how helpful they should be towards those social partners they have been allocated. Here, we perform a mathematical analysis showing that if kin discriminators are allowed to choose whom they help, kin discrimination is more likely to increase the overall level of helping than previously anticipated. We obtained these results in two complementary theoretical settings: one more general and the other more specific and concrete.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

The evolution of signalling and eavesdropping in plant-fungal networks

Experiments have shown that when one plant is attacked by a pathogen or herbivore, this can lead to other plants connected to the same mycorrhizal network upregulating their defence mechanisms. It has been hypothesised that this represents signalling, with attacked plants producing a signal to warn other plants of impending harm. We examined the evolutionary plausibility of this and other hypotheses theoretically. We found that the evolution of plant signalling about an attack requires restrictive conditions, and so will rarely be evolutionarily stable. The problem is that signalling about an attack provides a benefit to competing neighbours, even if they are kin, and so reduces the relative fitness of signalling plants. Indeed, selection is often more likely to push plant behaviour in the opposite direction - with plants signalling dishonestly about an attack that has not occurred, or by suppressing a cue that they have been attacked. Instead, we show that there are two viable alternatives that could explain the empirical data: (1) the process of being attacked leads to a cue (information about the attack) which is too costly for the attacked plant to fully suppress; (2) mycorrhizal fungi monitor their host plants, detect when they are attacked, and then the fungi signal this information to warn other plants in their network. Our results suggest the empirical work that would be required to distinguish between these possibilities. Significance statementExperiments have shown that when one plant is attacked by a herbivore, this can lead to other plants connected to the same mycorrhizal network upregulating their defence mechanisms. It has been hypothesised that this represents signalling, with attacked plants producing a signal to warn other plants of impending harm. We found theoretically that plant warning signals are rarely evolutionarily stable. Instead, we identify two viable alternatives that could explain the empirical data: (1) being attacked leads to a cue (information about the attack) which is too costly for the attacked plant to suppress; (2) mycorrhizal fungi monitor their host plants, detect when they are attacked, and then the fungi signal this information to warn other plants in their network.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Fusing an agent-based model of mosquito population dynamics with a statistical reconstruction of spatio-temporal abundance patterns

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the vector of a number of medically-important viruses, including dengue virus, yellow virus, chikungunya virus, and Zika virus, and as such vector control is a key approach to managing the diseases they cause. Understanding the impact of vector control on these diseases is aided by first understanding its impact on Ae. aegypti population dynamics. A number of detail-rich models have been developed to couple the dynamics of the immature and adult stages of Ae. aegypti. The numerous assumptions of these models enable them to realistically characterize impacts of mosquito control, but they also constrain the ability of such models to reproduce empirical patterns that do not conform to the models behavior. In contrast, statistical models afford sufficient flexibility to extract nuanced signals from noisy data, yet they have limited ability to make predictions about impacts of mosquito control on disease caused by pathogens that the mosquitoes transmit without extensive data on mosquitoes and disease. Here, we demonstrate how the differing strengths of mechanistic realism and statistical flexibility can be fused into a single model. Our analysis utilizes data from 176,352 household-level Ae. aegypti aspirator collections conducted during 1999-2011 in Iquitos, Peru. The key step in our approach is to calibrate a single parameter of the model to spatio-temporal abundance patterns predicted by a generalized additive model (GAM). In effect, this calibrated parameter absorbs residual variation in the abundance time-series not captured by other features of the mechanistic model. We then used this calibrated parameter and the literature-derived parameters in the agent-based model to explore Ae. aegypti population dynamics and the impact of insecticide spraying to kill adult mosquitoes. The baseline abundance predicted by the agent-based model closely matched that predicted by the GAM. Following spraying, the agent-based model predicted that mosquito abundance rebounds within about two months, commensurate with recent experimental data from Iquitos. Our approach was able to accurately reproduce abundance patterns in Iquitos and produce a realistic response to adulticide spraying, while retaining sufficient flexibility to be applied across a range of settings. Author SummaryThe mosquito Aedes aegypti is the vector for a number of the most medically important viruses, including dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. Understanding the population dynamics of this mosquito, and how those dynamics might respond to vector control interventions, is critical to inform the deployment of such interventions. One of the best ways to gain this understanding is through modeling of population dynamics. Such models are often categorizes as either statistical or dynamical, and each of these approaches has advantages and disadvantages - for instance, statistical models may more closely match patterns observed in empirical data, while dynamical models are better able to predict the impact of counterfactual situations such as vector control strategies. In this paper, we present an approach which fuses these two approaches in order to gain the advantages of both: it fits empirical data on Aedes aegypti population dynamics well, while producing realistic responses to vector control interventions. Our approach has the potential to inform and improve the deployment of vector control interventions, and, when used in concert with and epidemiological model, to help reduce the burden of the diseases spread by such vectors.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru

The importance of mosquitoes in human pathogen transmission has motivated major research efforts into mosquito biology in pursuit of more effective vector control measures. Aedes aegypti is a particular concern in tropical urban areas, where it is the primary vector of numerous flaviviruses, including the yellow fever, Zika, and dengue viruses. With an anthropophilic habit, Ae. aegypti prefers houses, human blood meals, and ovipositioning in water-filled containers. We hypothesized that this relatively simple ecological niche should allow us to predict the impacts of insecticidal control measures on mosquito populations. To do this, we use Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic model of Ae. aegypti population biology. SB2 builds on Skeeter Buster, which reproduced equilibrium dynamics of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos, Peru. Our goal was to predict the response of mosquito populations to perturbations by indoor insecticidal spraying and widespread destructive insect surveys. To evaluate SB2, we conducted two field experiments in Iquitos, Peru: a smaller pilot study in 2013 (S-2013) followed by a larger experiment in 2014 (L-2014). Here, we compare model predictions with (pre-viously reported) empirical results from these experiments. In both simulated and empirical populations, repeated spraying yielded substantial yet temporary reductions in adult densities. The proportional effects of spraying were broadly comparable between simulated and empirical results, but we found noteworthy differences. In particular, SB2 consistently over-estimated the proportion of nulliparous females and the proportion of containers holding immature mosquitoes. We also observed less temporal variation in simulated surveys of adult abundance relative to corresponding empirical observations. Our results indicate the presence of ecological heterogeneities or sampling processes not effectively represented by SB2. Although additional empirical research could further improve the accuracy and precision of SB2, our results under-score the importance of non-linear dynamics in the response of Ae. aegypti populations to perturbations, and suggest general limits to the fine-grained predictability of its population dynamics over space and time.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Evolution of Knockdown Resistance Haplotypes in Response to Pyrethroid Selection in Aedes aegypti

This study describes the evolution of knockdown resistance (kdr) haplotypes in Aedes aegypti in response to pyrethroid insecticide use over the course of 18 years in Iquitos, Peru. Based on the duration and intensiveness of sampling ([~]10,000 samples), this is the most thorough study of kdr population genetics in Ae. aegypti to date within a city. We provide evidence for the direct connection between programmatic citywide pyrethroid spraying and the increase in frequency of specific kdr haplotypes by identifying two evolutionary events in the population. The relatively high selection coefficients, even under infrequent insecticide pressure, emphasizes how quickly populations can evolve. The observed rapid increase in frequency of resistance alleles might have been aided by the incomplete dominance of resistance-conferring alleles over corresponding susceptibility alleles. In addition to dramatic temporal shifts, spatial suppression experiments reveal that genetic heterogeneity existed not only at the citywide scale, but also on a very fine scale within the city.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology

Mosquitoes are important vectors for pathogens of humans and other vertebrate animals. Some aspects of adult mosquito behavior and mosquito ecology play an important role in determining the capacity of vector populations to transmit pathogens. Here, we re-examine factors affecting the transmission of pathogens by mosquitoes using a new approach. Unlike most previous models, this framework considers the behavioral states and state transitions of adult mosquitoes through a sequence of activity bouts. We developed a new framework for individual-based simulation models called MBITES (Mosquito Bout-based and Individual-based Transmission Ecology Simulator). In MBITES, it is possible to build models that simulate the behavior and ecology of adult mosquitoes in exquisite detail on complex resource landscapes generated by spatial point processes. We also developed an ordinary differential equation model which is the Kolmogorov forward equations for models developed in MBITES under a specific set of simplifying assumptions. While infection of the mosquito and pathogen development are one possible part of a mosquitos state, that is not the main focus. Using extensive simulation using some models developed in MBITES, we show that vectorial capacity can be understood as an emergent property of simple behavioral algorithms interacting with complex resource landscapes, and that relative density or sparsity of resources and the need to search can have profound consequences for mosquito populations capacity to transmit pathogens.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Adaptation and the Parliament of Genes

Our modern understanding of adaptation by natural selection rests on assumptions about genes working together to produce organisms. However, there is considerable evidence for selfish genetic elements that distort the behaviour of individuals to increase their own transmission. How can we reconcile these opposing notions? We use a combination of population genetics, agent-based simulation, and game theory to model the evolution of both selfish genetic elements and genes that could suppress their distortion. We found that: (1) suppressor genes are more likely to be favoured when selfish genetic elements cause greater distortion; (2) selection on selfish genetic elements favours the evolution of greater distortion, making them more likely to be suppressed. We found these same results when examining an abstract model designed to illuminate the general principles, and models for three specific scenarios: an X chromosome driver, an imprinted gene, and a bacterial plasmid. Our results suggest that selection on selfish genetic elements will often drive coevolution with suppressors in a way that removes the impact of genetic conflict at the level of the individual.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Predicting The Spatial Dynamics Of Wolbachia Infections In Aedes aegypti Arbovirus Vector Populations In Heterogeneous Landscapes

O_LIA promising strategy for reducing the transmission of dengue and other arboviral human diseases by Aedes aegypti mosquito vector populations involves field introductions of the endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia. Wolbachia infections inhibit viral transmission by the mosquito, and can spread between mosquito hosts to reach high frequencies in the vector population. Wolbachia spreads by maternal transmission, and spread dynamics can be variable and highly dependent on natural mosquito population dynamics, population structure and fitness components.\nC_LIO_LIWe develop a mathematical model of an Ae. aegypti metapopulation that incorporates empirically validated relationships describing density-dependent mosquito fitness components. We assume that density dependence relationships differ across subpopulations, and construct heterogeneous landscapes for which model-predicted patterns of variation in mosquito abundance and demography approximate those observed in field populations. We then simulate Wolbachia release strategies similar to that used in field trials.\nC_LIO_LIWe show that our model can produce rates of spatial spread of Wolbachia similar to those observed following field releases.\nC_LIO_LIWe then investigate how different types of spatio-temporal variation in mosquito habitat, as well as different fitness costs incurred by Wolbachia on the mosquito host, influence predicted spread rates. We find that fitness costs reduce spread rates more strongly when the habitat landscape varies temporally due to stochastic and seasonal processes.\nC_LIO_LIOur empirically based modelling approach represents effects of environmental heterogeneity on the spatial spread of Wolbachia. The models can assist in interpreting observed spread patterns following field releases and in designing suitable release strategies for targeting spatially heterogeneous vector populations.\nC_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Model-based assessment of public health impact and cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination following screening for prior exposure

The tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia(R)) is the first licensed vaccine against dengue, but recent findings indicate an elevated risk of severe disease among vaccinees without prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure. The World Health Organization currently recommends CYD-TDV only for individuals with serological confirmation of past DENV exposure. Our objective was to evaluate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination following serological screening. To do so, we used an agent-based model to simulate DENV transmission with and without vaccination over a 30-year timeframe. Under a range of values for the proportion of vaccinees with prior DENV exposure, we projected the proportion of symptomatic and hospitalized cases averted as a function of the sensitivity and specificity of serological screening. Scenarios about the cost-effectiveness of screening and vaccination were chosen to be representative of Brazil and the Philippines. We found that public health impact depended primarily on the sensitivity of serological screening in high-transmission settings and on a combination of sensitivity and specificity in low-transmission settings. Reducing risk from an individual perspective required high specificity, no less than 0.8. Cost-effectiveness could be achievable from the perspective of a public payer provided that screening sensitivity for prior DENV exposure and the value of a disability-adjusted life-year were both high. Cost-effectiveness was also achievable from an individual perspective, particularly with high screening specificity and low coverage. Whereas the results of this analysis offer general guidelines about CYD-TDV vaccination, decisions in specific contexts would benefit from additional, more context-specific modeling analyses. In conclusion, vaccination with CYD-TDV following serological screening could have a positive impact in certain epidemiological settings, provided that screening is highly specific, at least moderately sensitive, and inexpensive.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Efficacy of Aedes aegypti control by indoor Ultra Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in Iquitos, Peru

BackgroundAedes aegypti is a primary vector of dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and urban yellow fever viruses. Indoor, ultra low volume (ULV) space spraying with pyrethroid insecticides is the main approach used for Ae. aegypti emergency control in many countries. Given the widespread use of this method, the lack of large-scale experiments or detailed evaluations of municipal spray programs is problematic.\n\nMethodology/Principal FindingsTwo experimental evaluations of non-residual, indoor ULV pyrethroid spraying were conducted in Iquitos, Peru. In each, a central sprayed sector was surrounded by an unsprayed buffer sector. In 2013, spray and buffer sectors included 398 and 765 houses, respectively. Spraying reduced the mean number of adults captured per house by ~83 percent relative to the pre-spray baseline survey. In the 2014 experiment, sprayed and buffer sectors included 1,117 and 1,049 houses, respectively. Here, the sprayed sectors number of adults per house was reduced ~64 percent relative to baseline. Parity surveys in the sprayed sector during the 2014 spray period indicated an increase in the proportion of very young females. We also evaluated impacts of a 2014 citywide spray program by the local Ministry of Health, which reduced adult populations by ~60 percent. In all cases, adult densities returned to near-baseline levels within one month.\n\nConclusions/SignificanceOur results demonstrate that densities of adult Ae. aegypti can be reduced by experimental and municipal spraying programs. The finding that adult densities return to approximately pre-spray densities in less than a month is similar to results from previous, smaller scale experiments. Our results demonstrate that ULV spraying is best viewed as having a short-term entomological effect. The epidemiological impact of ULV spraying will need evaluation in future trials that measure capacity of insecticide spraying to reduce disease transmission.

epidemiology↗