Biology subjects

Santika, T.

Publications and source records attributed to Santika, T..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Deforestation projections imply range-wide population decline for critically endangered Bornean orangutan

Assessing where wildlife populations are at risk from future habitat loss is particularly important for land-use planning and avoiding biodiversity declines. Combining projections of future deforestation with species density information provides an improved way to anticipate such declines. Using the endemic and critically endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) as a case study we applied a spatio-temporally explicit deforestation model to forest loss data from 2001-2017 and projected future impacts on orangutans to the 2030s. Our projections point to continued deforestation across the island, amounting to a loss of forest habitat for 26,200 (CI: 19,500-34,000) orangutans. Populations currently persisting in forests gazetted for industrial timber and oil palm concessions, or unprotected forests outside of concessions, were projected to experience the worst losses within the next 15 years, amounting to 15,400 (CI: 12,000-20,500) individuals. Lowland forests with high orangutan densities in West and Central Kalimantan were also projected to be at high risk from deforestation, irrespective of land-use. In contrast, most protected areas and logging concessions currently harboring orangutans will continue to face low levels of deforestation. Our business-as-usual projections indicate the importance of protected areas, efforts to prevent the conversion of logged forests for the survival of highly vulnerable wildlife, and protecting orangutan habitat in plantation landscapes. The modeling framework could be expanded to other species with available density or occurrence data. Our findings highlight that species conservation should not only attempt to act on the current situation, but also be adapt to changes in drivers to be effective.

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bioRxiv2020

The importance of orangutans in small fragments for maintaining metapopulation dynamics

Orangutans (Pongo spp.) occur at low densities and therefore large areas are necessary to sustain viable metapopulations, defined here as sets of conspecific units of individuals linked by dispersal. Historically, orangutans lived in large contiguous areas of intact rainforest, but are now increasingly found in agricultural and other landscapes modified by people. Here we collate evidence of orangutans utilizing isolated forest fragments (< 500 ha) within multiple-use landscapes dominated by oil palm monoculture across Borneo. Orangutan signs (i.e. nests) were evident in 76 fragments surveyed by helicopter, and in 50 of 70 additional fragments surveyed on the ground; on average 63 ha in size. This includes presence of adult resident females with dependent young confirmed in 40% of the fragments assessed by ground survey. Our study revealed some resident females are raising offspring in isolated forest patches within mature oil palm stands. This not only confirms that some forest patches can sustain orangutans, but indicates migratory males are capable of reaching these fragments scattered throughout the multiple-use landscape. Therefore, orangutans that use or live in even small isolated forest patches are an essential part of the overall metapopulation by maintaining gene flow between, and genetic connectivity within, populations distributed across larger multiple-use landscapes. Orangutan survival is commonly thought to be low in small, isolated forest patches, and the customary management strategy is to remove (translocate) these individuals and release them in larger forests. In some cases, translocations may be necessary, i.e. in case of fire or when the animals are in eminent danger of being killed and have no other refuge. However, the small amount of data available indicates that mortality rates during and after translocations are high, while the impacts of removing animals from spatially dispersed metapopulations are unknown. Therefore, we argue the current policy of routine translocation rather than conserving the species within human-modified landscapes could inadvertently decrease critical metapopulation functionality necessary for long-term viability. It is clear that orangutans need natural forest to survive, but our findings show that fragmented agricultural landscapes can also serve as complementary conservation areas in addition to fully protected areas if they are well designed with ecological connections, and if orangutan killing can be prevented. To achieve this, we call for a paradigm shift from the traditional large single forest model to one that emphasizes metapopulation functionality in the fragmented forest - human use matrix characteristic of the Anthropocene. Version 2 (20 May 2020): this manuscript is a non-peer reviewed preprint shared via the BiorXiv server while being considered for publication in a peer-reviewed academic journal. Please refer to the permanent digital object identifier (https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.17.100842). Under the Creative Commons license (CC-BY Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 International) you are free to share the material as long as the authors are credited, you link to the license, and indicate if any changes have been made. You may not share the work in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. You cannot change the work in any way or use it commercially.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

The power of mixed survey methodologies for detecting decline of the Bornean orangutan

For many threatened species, it is difficult to assess precisely for large areas the change in their abundances over time and the relative impacts of climate and anthropogenic land use. This is because surveys of such species are typically restricted to small geographic areas, are conducted during short time periods, and use different survey protocols. We assessed the change in the abundance of Bornean orangutan Pongo pygmaeus morio in Sabah, Malaysia, and to identify environmental drivers affecting the change by integrating different types of survey data. We used nest count data obtained from aerial and ground transect surveys and occurrence data obtained from reconnaissance walks and interview survey over the past decade. We built a spatially-explicit dynamic population model within the Bayesian framework allowing these varying survey data to be analyzed jointly by explicitly accounting for each surveys sampling rate. We found that sampling rates vary across survey types, reflecting each surveys associated effort. Orangutan survival rates were strongly determined by natural forest extent and moderately by temperature. Orangutan migration rates across more than 1 km distance between forest patches were low, which underlines the importance of maintaining ecological connectivity. The paucity of species abundance data collected in a consistent manner over many years across broad extents often hinders the assessment of species population trend and their persistence across regional scales. We demonstrate that this can be addressed by integrating multiple survey data across different localities, provided that sampling rate inherent to each survey is accounted for.

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bioRxiv2019

The effects of data adequacy and calibration size on the accuracy of presence-only species distribution models

O_LIPresence-only data used to develop species distribution models are often biased towards areas that are frequently surveyed. Furthermore, the size of calibration area with respect to the area covered by the species occurrences has been shown to affect model accuracy. However, existing assessments of the effect of data inadequacy and calibration size on model accuracy have predominately been conducted using empirical studies. These studies can give ambiguous results, since the data used to train and test the model can both be biased.\nC_LIO_LIThese limitations were addressed by applying simulated data to assess how inadequate data coverage and the size of calibration area affect the accuracy of species distribution models generated by MaxEnt and BIOCLIM. The validity of four presence-only performance measures, Contrast Validation Index (CVI), Boyce index, AUC and AUCratio, was also assessed.\nC_LIO_LICVI, AUC and AUCratio ranked the accuracy of univariate models correctly according to the true importance of their defining environmental variable, a desirable property of an accuracy measure. Contrastingly, Boyce index failed to rank the accuracy of univariate models correctly and a high percentage of irrelevant variables produced models with a high Boyce index.\nC_LIO_LIInadequate data coverage and increased calibration area reduced model accuracy by reducing the correct identification of the dominant environmental determinant. BIOCLIM outperformed MaxEnt models in predicting the true distribution of simulated species with a symmetric dominant response. However, MaxEnt outperformed BIOCLIM in predicting the true distribution of simulated species with skew and linear dominant responses. Despite this, the standard performance measures consistently overestimated the performance of MaxEnt models and showed them as always having higher model accuracy than the BIOCLIM models.\nC_LIO_LIIt has been acknowledged that research should be directed towards testing and improving species distribution modelling tools, particularly how to handle the inevitable bias and scarcity of species occurrence data. Simulated data, as demonstrated here, provides a powerful approach to comprehensively test the performance of modelling tools and to disentangle the effects of data properties and modelling options on model accuracy. This may be impossible to achieve using real-world data.\nC_LI

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