Biology subjects

Runck, B.

Publications and source records attributed to Runck, B..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Potential for Climate Change induced extinction of the Sky Island Species Mount Graham Red Squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis)

Sky islands are high-elevation ecosystems surrounded by lowland habitats that create isolated environments with distinct climatic conditions. These factors have driven the evolution of many endemic species, separated from their larger, contiguous populations. An Individual-Based Model (IBM) was used to simulate population dynamics by modeling the behaviors and interactions of Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis (Mount Graham Red Squirrel) a subspecies of the American red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) that is endemic to the Pinaleno Mountains in southeastern Arizona. This approach can help predict future population trends based on historical species data leading to better conservation decisions. Using species-specific ecological preferences--including temperature, precipitation, and vegetation indices (NDVI)--an IBM was developed to simulate population dynamics and spatial distribution projections through 2100. Climate change projections, based on the best- and worst-case scenarios outlined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment, were incorporated to assess potential future population trends under changing environmental conditions. The population faces a 45-62% probability of extinction by 2100, with a significant risk of extinction within the next 50 years. A translocation experiment was conducted to evaluate the viability of relocating individuals to the Chiricahua Mountains, another sky island with a larger habitable area. However, the risk of extinction remains even higher (87-89%) due to environmental disturbances affecting both the Chiricahua and Pinaleno regions. This highlights the challenges of conservation efforts in the face of climate change and emphasizes the need for targeted management strategies to preserve this critically endangered subspecies.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Unlocking the potential of Capsicum Germplasm Collections for Climate Resilience and Fruit Quality

Climate change increasingly threatens global Capsicum (pepper) production. Accelerating the deployment of climate-resilient cultivars requires effective use of genetic diversity conserved in genebanks. We implement a "turbocharging" strategy in Capsicum by integrating genome-wide association studies and genomic prediction in a core collection (n = 423), followed by genomic prediction across the global collection (n = 10,250) using the core as a training population. We generated genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for 31 high-accuracy traits (r > 0.5) encompassing hyperspectral phenotypes (heat/control), agronomic performance (heat/control) and fruit quality. To enhance accessibility and decision-making, we developed a large language model (LLM) integrated application that enables flexible, preference-based selection of candidates. By narrowing the parental decision space, this framework streamlines screening of large germplasm collections while balancing climate resilience, quality attributes and market demands. Our approach provides a scalable decision-support system to accelerate climate-resilient Capsicum breeding and maximize global genetic resources.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Climate resilience conserved in global germplasm repositories: Picking the most promising parents for agile plant breeding

Crop diversity is an essential resource for national and international breeding programs aimed at preparing global agriculture for a changing climate to ensure global food security. To do this there are related risks that need to be evaluated (1) does the genetic diversity needed for climate adaptation exist somewhere? And (2) is such genetic diversity accessible? To evaluate these risks, we consider the test case of publicly available genotyped and georeferenced sorghum landraces (n = 1,937) to ask if diversity is sufficient to support breeding for climate change adaptation. Answering these questions allows for characterization of the best potential parents and the geographies that harbor the most potentially promising genetypes for crop improvement. We subset this data into national, regional, and global geographic regions, and complete/mini core collections to understand the potential for climate adaptation in regional germplasm. Study accessions were given a future climate resilience score based on future climatic projections and a genomic adaptive capacity score using genomic estimated adaptive values (GEAVs) generated from environmental genomic selection - EGS) to ask whether this accessible diversity stored in germplasm repositories is potentially sufficient to meet forecasted changes in growing environments under climate change. We find that genomic resilience capacity is highly variable among countries and regions. High geographical variability was also found for climate resilience. To equitably adapt agriculture to future climate conditions, increased accessibility to plant genetic resources is essential.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2020

The hidden land use cost of widespread cover cropping

Cover cropping is considered a cornerstone practice in sustainable agriculture; however, little attention has been paid to the cover crop production supply chain. In this Perspective, we estimate land use requirements to supply the United States maize production area with cover crop seed, finding that across 18 cover crops, on average 3.8% (median 2.0%) of current production area would be required, with the popular cover crops rye and hairy vetch requiring as much as 4.5% and 11.9%, respectively. The latter land requirement is comparable to the annual amount of maize grain lost to disease in the U.S. We highlight avenues for reducing these high land use costs.

ecology↗