Rojas-Ariza, D. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

Forecasting climate-driven distributional changes in the threatened Caribbean marine species Aliger gigas (Queen conch)

The queen conch (Aliger gigas) is a key native species of the Caribbean Sea and a primary source of income for thousands of fishers. Historically, it has been a highly valuable resource for the fishing sectors of countries such as the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Honduras, and Nicaragua. However, due to its high economic value, the species has been extensively overfished across the region. Overfishing, combined with limited larval dispersal, low recruitment, and poor population connectivity, has led to a drastic decline in population numbers of the species, resulting in its current classification as Threatened. Despite this status, likely impacts of climate change on its populations remain poorly understood, posing significant challenges to conservation efforts. To address this gap, we integrated occurrence records, climate data, and satellite-derived marine habitat data to develop ecological niche models estimating the current and future distribution of the queen conch under different climate change scenarios. We found substantial losses of suitable areas for queen conch along the northern Atlantic coast of South America and Central America, part of the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles. The entire Caribbean region is projected to lose suitability entirely within 20-30 years under the moderate and most extreme climate scenarios. Conversely, our models estimate some suitable areas to persist or expand along the southeastern coast of the United States at least until sometime between 2040 and 2060. Overall, our results suggest a northward shift in the range of this species, with the magnitude of this shift closely tied to the severity of climate change impacts. This work aims to build upon and enhance existing knowledge about survival of queen conch populations in the Caribbean over time. Anticipating future habitat availability will be key to protecting this economically and ecologically important species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Climatic suitability and invasion risk of the elm zigzag sawfly in North America

The elm zigzag sawfly, Aproceros leucopoda (Hymenoptera), native to eastern Asia, is among the most concerning potential pests for elm trees (Ulmus spp.); elms form an important component in many North Temperate forests. This sawfly species invaded Europe in 2003 and spread rapidly across much of that continent. In 2020, it was recorded in North America, and it has since become established in several parts of the eastern United States and Canada. Sawfly infestations can cause severe elm tree defoliation, branch die-back that weakens tree health, and potentially tree mortality. Sawfly invasions have the potential to further exacerbate elm decline, especially in conjunction with other pressures, including Dutch elm disease (Ophiostoma ulmi). We used rigorous approaches from distributional ecology to explore climatic suitability for A. leocopoda across North America, considering various sources of uncertainty in the data. We found that, without control, the elm zigzag sawfly could establish populations across eastern Canada, much of the central-eastern and northeastern United States, as well as in the Pacific Northwest. More southern areas of North America were not climatically suitable for this species. Predicted suitable areas for the sawfly overlap broadly with elm distributions, highlighting the need to control this invasion to mitigate potential economic and environmental impacts.

ecology↗