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Rohani, P.

Publications and source records attributed to Rohani, P..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

Geometry of antigenic evolution improves influenza vaccine selection

Anticipating antigenic evolution is essential for selecting effective seasonal influenza A/H3N2 vaccine strains. To this end, we integrated data from multiple immunological assays spanning two decades into a unified Bayesian antigenic map. The map resolves twelve antigenic clusters advancing in discrete steps, with several clusters co-circulating in most seasons. In 15 of 21 seasons, the vaccine composition belonged to an earlier cluster than the dominant circulating cluster. We identified geometric features of antigenic space that accounted for three-quarters of the variation in vaccine effectiveness. The direction of each vaccine update relative to recent viral drift predicted effectiveness one season ahead out of sample. In every season, our analyses identified a virus that would have raised predicted effectiveness by 10 percentage points.

evolutionary biology↗

Informing antiviral effectiveness for influenza A andSARS-CoV-2 by quantifying within-host interaction betweentransmission and immunity

Antiviral therapies are among the most effective pharmaceutical interventions in treatment of a variety of viral pathogens. To optimize the antiviral effectiveness it is crucial to characterize the relationship between multiple cellular modes of antiviral action and the complex response of the hosts innate immune system relative to the within host dynamics of a proliferating virus. Since their introduction in 1968 and 2019, Influenza A virus (IAV) H3N2 and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), respectively, have caused unprecedented damage on the public health infrastructure globally. In addition to the substantial burden of morbidity and mortality around the world, both viruses have the potential of undergoing evolution leading to antigenic escape from the prevailing interventions. These biological characteristics advocate for urgent development of effective antivirals for the treatment of IAV and SARS-CoV-2. In this multi-stage study, we develop a suite of within-host models encompassing a number of hypotheses regarding virus-specific innate host functional responses and their impacts on the proliferation of IAV H3N2 and SARS-CoV-2 viruses. We use likelihood-based statistical inference to confront these hypotheses with infection data on IAV H3N2 and SARS-CoV-2 from infection experiments in ferrets. Upon identifying the best-fitting model of within-host dynamics, we can quantify the potential impact of antiviral drug therapy as a function of effectiveness and timing of initiation. We find significant mechanistic differences between the infection dynamics of H3N2 IAV and SARS-CoV-2 and associated model parameters. The treatment consequences of these differences are that SARS-CoV-2 is harder to control with antivirals, requiring earlier initiation and a more effective drug. Author summaryAntiviral drugs are prophylactic chemical agents that are used to contain several viral infections. Influenza A H3N2 virus (H3N2) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) are very important viral pathogens that have caused unprecedented, global public health damage in the recent times. This makes development of antiviral drugs crucial along with other pharmaceutical prophylactics like vaccination. To optimize the pathogen specific effectiveness, however, it is necessary to simultaneously explore the relationship among the intra-host viral kinetics, immune dynamics and modes of antiviral action. In this article we theoretically analyze antiviral action of a drug in union with effect of the hosts innate immune system in containing infections of SARS-CoV-2 and H3N2 in infection experiments with ferrets. We find fundamental differences in the requisite antiviral effectiveness which, we posit, is due to substantially different inter-cellular proliferation potential between the two viruses.

ecology↗

TOPOLOW: A MAPPING ALGORITHM FOR ANTIGENIC CROSS-REACTIVITY AND BINDING AFFINITY ASSAY RESULTS

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWO_ST_ABSMotivationC_ST_ABSUnderstanding antigenic evolution through cross-reactivity assays is crucial for tracking viral pathogens and informing vaccine development, particularly for rapidly evolving pathogens requiring regular vaccine updates. However, existing cartography methods, commonly based on mul- tidimensional scaling (MDS), face significant challenges with sparse data, producing incomplete and inconsistent maps. There is an urgent need for robust computational methods that can accurately map antigenic relationships from incomplete experimental data while maintaining biological relevance, especially given that up to 95% of possible measurements may be missing in large-scale studies. ResultsWe present Topolow, a physics-inspired optimization framework that transforms cross- reactivity and binding affinity measurements into accurate positions in a phenotype space. By modeling antigenic relationships as a system of particles connected by springs representing measured similarities, with selective repulsion between unmeasured pairs, Topolow achieves superior performance compared to MDS. Applied to neutralization data for H3N2 influenza and HIV viruses, our method demonstrated 12% and 43% improvement in prediction accuracy respectively, while maintaining complete positioning of all antigens. Topolow determines optimal dimensionality through likelihood-based estimation, avoiding distortions due to insufficient dimensions, and demonstrates orders of magnitude better stability across multiple runs. The method effectively reduces experimental noise and bias, revealing the underlying antigenic relationships and clusters. Availability and implementationTopolow is implemented in R and freely available at [https://github.com/omid-arhami/topolow]. The package is optimized for both single machines and SLURM clusters, with parallel processing support for computational efficiency. Contactrohani@uga.edu Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available.

bioinformatics↗

Feeding the disparities: the geography and trends of breastfeeding in the United States

There is scientific consensus on the importance of breastfeeding for the present and future health of newborns, in high- and low-income settings alike. In the United States, improving breast milk access is a public health priority but analysis of secular trends are largely lacking. Here, we used data from the National Immunization Survey of the CDC, collected between 2003 and 2016, to illustrate the temporal trends and the spatial heterogeneity in breastfeeding. We also considered the effect sizes of two key determinants of breastfeeding rates. We show that, while access to breast milk both at birth and at 6 months old has steadily increased over the past decade, large spatial disparities still remain at the state level. We also find that, since 2009, the proportion of households below the poverty level has become the strongest predictor of breastfeeding rates. We argue that, because variations in breastfeeding rates are associated with socio-economic factors, public health policies advocating for breastfeeding are still needed in particular in underserved communities. This is key to reducing longer term health disparities in the U.S., and more generally in high-income countries.

epidemiology↗

Rethinking the efficacy of acellular pertussis vaccines for primary immunization

BackgroundThe US has experienced a nationwide resurgence of pertussis since the mid-1970s, despite high vaccine coverage. Short-lived immunity induced by Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular Pertussis (DTaP) vaccines in young children is widely believed to be responsible for this growing burden. However, the duration of protection conferred by DTaP vaccines remains incompletely quantified.\n\nMethods and FindingsWe employed a rigorously validated, age-structured model of pertussis transmission to explore a range of hypotheses regarding the degree of waning DTaP-derived immunity. For every hypothesis, we calculated the vaccine effectiveness and the relative increase in the odds of acquiring pertussis (or odds ratio) in children aged 5 to 9 years. We then assessed the simulated DTaP vaccine traits that best reproduced the empirical values of odds ratios from recent US epidemiological studies. We found a marked association between the degree of waning immunity, the vaccine effectiveness, and the odds ratio. Unexpectedly, the odds ratio was positively associated with the vaccine effectiveness, as a consequence of non-linear, age-assortative dynamics. Based on the empirical odds ratios, we estimated that vaccine effectiveness exceeded 75% and that more than 65% of children remained immune to pertussis 5 years after the last DTaP dose.\n\nConclusionsOur results show that temporal trends in the odds of acquiring pertussis are a seriously flawed measure of the durability of vaccine-induced protection. They further demonstrate that DTaP vaccines confer imperfect, but long-lived protection. We argue that control strategies should be based upon the best available estimates of vaccine properties and the age-structure of the transmission network.

epidemiology↗

A simulation study on the relative role of age groups under differing pertussis transmission scenarios

Pertussis has resurged in many countries where it was once regarded as under control, with the recent outbreaks showing a shift in incidence towards teens and older individuals. Here, using an age-stratified transmission model, we tested two potential causes for underlying changes in pertussis transmission dynamics. We did so assuming hypothesized mechanisms supporting present-day pertussis epidemiology: (I) improved diagnostics, (II) acellular vaccines leading to asymptomatic transmission (III) both. We used the relative risks and odds ratio methods to examine the impact of these differing assumptions on signatures of relative roles of key age groups through time, allowing us to explore those age cohorts that disproportionately account for transmission. Our findings show that for epidemics after the vaccine switch, a scenario with increased adult reporting and no asymptomatic transmission reflect a loss of signal, where no age group appears to be key. While scenarios with asymptomatic transmission, reflect a population where children (1-10 years old) are still disproportionally at risk. These results demonstrate that understanding the underlying transmission mechanisms in a population are paramount for vaccination policies in attaining herd immunity and eventually eradication.

epidemiology↗

Assessing the distribution and determinants of vaccine underutilization in the United States

Despite advances in sanitation and immunization, vaccine-preventable diseases remain a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In high-income countries such as the United States, coverage rates for vaccination against childhood infections remains high. However, the phenomenon of vaccine hesitancy makes maintenance of herd immunity difficult, impeding global disease eradication efforts. Reaching the last mile will require early detection of vaccine hesitancy (driven by philosophical or religious choices), identifying pockets of susceptibility due to underimmunization (driven by vaccine unavailability, costs ineligibility), determining the factors associated with the behavior and developing targeted strategies to ameliorate the concerns. Towards this goal, we harness high-resolution medical claims data to geographically localize vaccine refusal and underimmunization (collectively, underutilization) in the United States and identify the socio-economic determinants of the behaviors. Our study represents the first large-scale effort for vaccination behavior surveillance and has the potential to aid in the development of targeted public health strategies for optimizing vaccine uptake.

epidemiology↗