Biology subjects

Record, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Record, S..

8 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Herbarium specimens reliably track plant phenological responses to climate change in understudied montane biomes

Long-term field observations typically are the "gold-standard" for inferences of phenological sensitivities in montane systems but are spatially limited. Herbarium specimens provide broader spatial coverage, but their utility to accurately capture montane phenology remains poorly known. We compared flowering phenology of 45 species inferred from herbarium specimens with comparable data from nearly 50 years of direct observations at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. Estimates of flowering time and phenological sensitivity to snow density were consistent between herbarium specimens and observations, but observations revealed secondary flowering peaks. Herbarium specimens additionally yielded shallower estimates of phenological sensitivity to spring temperature than did field observations. Across co-occurring species, "early" flowering individuals inferred from herbarium specimens, rather than the mean response across all individuals, may better approximate community-level phenological responses to temperature changes. We conclude that herbarium specimens are reliable resources for closing gaps in understanding phenological variation along elevational gradients of montane systems.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Individual heterogeneity drives a plant macroparasites life history

The population dynamics and life histories of macroparasites are fundamental to examine their impacts on hosts and ecosystems. Still, macroparasite population models often ignore parasite individual heterogeneity and are rarely applied to parasitic plants, where demographic strategies are less well understood. Using a 10-year dataset on European mistletoe (Viscum album), we examine how this macroparasites traits influence its performance. V. album survival and reproduction depend on its size and, to a lesser extent, height on the host tree, with a strong growth-reproduction trade-off. We parameterise these relationships in an integral projection model to compare the life history strategy of V. album with two other macroparasites and 490 free-living plants. Contrary to our hypothesis, V. album and other macroparasites do not follow an extreme strategy, suggesting that parasitic plants may not escape the life history constraints experienced by non-parasitic plants. Our results highlight how incorporating parasite heterogeneity can improve macroparasite models.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Temperature-dependent predation predicts a more reptilian future

Vertebrate diversity increases toward the tropics, but the extent to which this pattern varies with thermoregulatory strategy is unknown. A strong divergence, if confirmed, would imply a global restructuring of vertebrate communities with temperature. Here we present evidence for a novel latitudinal and thermal gradient of comparative vertebrate diversity. Synthesizing over 34,000 terrestrial species distributions, we observe a two-orders-of-magnitude shift in comparative richness with temperature, from endothermic dominance in temperate habitats and high elevations, toward parity with ectotherms in the lowland tropics. Next, we provide experimental support for an underlying thermal gradient of predation. Using machine vision tracking in over 4,500 endotherm-ectotherm predation trials, we show that thermally-mediated differences in performance favor endotherm predators in colder conditions and yield theoretically predicted outcomes, including strike count, distance traveled, and time to capture ectotherm prey. Finally, we integrate theory and data to forecast future patterns of diversity, revealing that as the world gets warmer, it will become increasingly reptilian.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Individual tree crown maps for the National Ecological Observatory Network

The ecology of forest ecosystems depends on the composition of trees. Capturing fine-grained information on individual trees at broad scales provides a unique perspective on forest ecosystems, forest restoration and responses to disturbance. Individual tree data at wide extents promises to increase the scale of forest analysis, biogeographic research, and ecosystem monitoring without losing details on individual species composition and abundance. Computer vision using deep neural networks can convert raw sensor data into predictions of individual canopy tree species through labeled data collected by field researchers. Using over 40,000 individual tree stems as training data, we create landscape-level species predictions for over 100 million individual trees across 24 sites in the National Ecological Observatory Network. Using hierarchical multi-temporal models fine-tuned for each geographic area, we produce open-source data available as 1 km2 shapefiles with individual tree species prediction, as well as crown location, crown area and height of 81 canopy tree species. Site-specific models had an average performance of 79% accuracy covering an average of six species per site, ranging from 3 to 15 species per site. All predictions are openly archived and have been uploaded to Google Earth Engine to benefit the ecology community and overlay with other remote sensing assets. We outline the potential utility and limitations of these data in ecology and computer vision research, as well as strategies for improving predictions using targeted data sampling.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Phenologically-informed species distribution models (SDMs) forecast less species loss and turnover versus standard SDMs

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been central for documenting the relationship between species geographic ranges and environmental conditions for more than two decades. However, the vast majority of SDMs rarely consider functional traits, such as phenology, which strongly affect species demography and fitness. Using >120,000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species across the eastern United States, we developed a novel "phenology-informed" SDM that integrates dynamic phenological responses to changing climates. Compared to standard SDMs based only on abiotic variables, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast significantly lower species habitat loss and less species turnover within communities under climate change. These results suggest that phenotypic plasticity or local adaptation in phenology may help many species adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats during periods of rapid environmental change. By modeling historical data that link phenology, climate, and species distributions, our findings reveal how species reproductive phenology mediates their geographic distributions along environmental gradients and affects regional biodiversity patterns in the face of future climate change. More importantly, our newly developed model also circumvents the need for mechanistic models that explicitly link traits to occurrences for each species, thus better facilitating the deployment of trait-based SDMs across unprecedented spatial and taxonomic scales.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Diversity-stability relationships become decoupled across spatial scales: a synthesis of organism and ecosystem types

The relationship between biodiversity and stability, or its inverse, temporal variability, is multidimensional and complex. Temporal variability in aggregate properties, like total biomass or abundance, is typically lower in communities with higher species diversity (i.e., the diversity-stability relationship or DSR). Recent work has shown that, at broader spatial extents, regional-scale aggregate variability is also lower with higher regional diversity (in plant systems) and with lower spatial synchrony. However, it is not yet clear whether regional DSRs hold across a broad range of organisms and ecosystem types. Furthermore, focusing exclusively on aggregate properties of communities may overlook potentially destabilizing compositional shifts. To test these questions, we compiled a large collection of long-term spatial metacommunity data spanning a wide range of taxonomic groups (e.g., birds, fish, plants, invertebrates) and ecosystem types (e.g., deserts, forests, oceans). We applied a newly developed quantitative framework for jointly analyzing aggregate and compositional variability across scales. We quantified DSRs for composition and total abundance in local communities and metacommunities. At the local scale, compositional DSRs suggested that higher local () diversity was associated with lower variability in animal populations but higher variability in plant populations, while aggregate DSRs supported the classic stabilizing effects of diversity. Spatial synchrony differed among taxa (birds had the lowest, plants the highest), suggesting differences in stabilization by spatial processes. Spatial synchrony declined with higher diversity among sites ({beta}) for both compositional and aggregate properties. However, at the regional ({gamma}) scale, we found no aggregate DSR, but a positive compositional DSR. Across a broader range of taxa, our results suggest that high {gamma}-diversity does not consistently stabilize aggregate properties at regional scales without sufficient spatial {beta}-diversity to reduce spatial synchrony. Open research statementAll data sets are accessible via the Environmental Data Initiative, and a specific data package of the data sets used in this analysis will be made publicly available (doi: pending). Citations to original sources are included in Appendix S1. Code to reproduce the analyses is found in a Zenodo archive (doi: pending) of the GitHub repository for this project (https://github.com/sokole/ltermetacommunities/tree/master/Manuscripts/MS3).

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

The dual nature of metacommunity variability

There is increasing interest in measuring ecological stability to understand how communities and ecosystems respond to broad-scale global changes. One of the most common approaches is to quantify the variation through time in community or ecosystem aggregate attributes (e.g., total biomass), referred to as aggregate variability. It is now widely recognized that aggregate variability represents only one aspect of communities and ecosystems, and compositional variability, the changes in the relative frequency of species in an assemblage, is equally important. Recent contributions have also begun to explore ecological stability at regional spatial scales, where interconnected local communities form metacommunities, a key concept in managing complex landscapes. However, the conceptual frameworks and measures of ecological stability in space have only focused on aggregate variability, leaving a conceptual gap. Here, we address this gap with a novel framework for quantifying the aggregate and compositional variability of communities and ecosystems through space and time. We demonstrate that the compositional variability of a metacommunity depends on the degree of spatial synchrony in compositional trajectories among local communities. We then provide a conceptual framework in which compositional variability of (i) the metacommunity through time and (ii) among local communities combine into four archetype scenarios: spatial stasis (low/low); spatial synchrony (high/low); spatial asynchrony (high/high) and spatial compensation (low/high). We illustrate this framework based on numerical examples and a case study of a macroalgal metacommunity in which low spatial synchrony reduced variability in aggregate biomass at the metacommunity scale, while masking high spatial synchrony in compositional trajectories among local communities. Finally, we discuss the role of dispersal, environmental heterogeneity, species interactions and suggest future avenues. We believe this framework will be helpful for considering both aspects of variability simultaneously which is important to better understand ecological stability in natural and complex landscapes in response to environmental changes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Life history scaling and the division of energy in forests

The competition for light has long been regarded as a key axis of niche partitioning that promotes forest diversity, but available evidence is contradictory. Despite strong tradeoffs between growth and survival with light, field tests suggest neutral forces govern tree composition across forest gaps and resource use across size classes. Here we integrate scaling and niche theory, and use data from >114,000 woody plants in a tropical, old growth forest to test and predict patterns of niche partitioning with size and light. Consistent with predictions, the relative abundance, production, light capture, and richness of species in life histories with fast growth follow a power law relationship, increasing 1-2 orders of magnitude along a solar and size gradient. Competitive neutrality between size classes emerges above the sapling layer, where increasing access to light is counterbalanced by stronger self-shading. Convergent power law patterns of resource partitioning across taxa and spatial scale suggest general life history tradeoffs drive the organization of diverse communities.

ecology↗