Biology subjects

Rambaut, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Rambaut, A..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Dairy cattle movement networks govern the spread and persistence of H5N1 B3.13 in the United States

Avian influenza virus H5N1 is predominantly found in wild and domestic birds. H5N1 genotype B3.13 was first detected in United States dairy cattle in March 2024 and spread through much of the country during 2024 and 2025, resulting in the largest known H5N1 outbreak in domestic mammals. By analysing viral genomic data jointly with historical cattle movement patterns, we find that live cattle movement is the predominant contributor to H5N1 spatial spread, rather than wild or domestic birds. Using phylogeographic methods we estimate that >40% of interstate viral transmissions occurred before B3.13's first detection and >70% occurred before interstate dairy cattle movement restrictions were implemented in April 2024. After this implementation, interstate transmission slowed but within-state spread persisted, driven by local cattle network density and movement volume. Our epidemic simulations demonstrate that the connectivity of counties within and around the Texas Panhandle - where the earliest cases were documented - predisposed the region to become an outbreak epicentre. Counterfactual simulations indicate that interstate restrictions needed to have begun 2-3 months earlier in order to limit the epizootic substantively, given the extent of cryptic spread before detection. Network-informed interventions outperformed geographically-defined containment, but response speed (rather than intervention strength) was the limiting factor in our epidemic models, underscoring the need for surveillance systems capable of detecting pathogen emergence before widespread dissemination.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

The emergence and molecular evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in United States dairy cattle

Prior to 2024, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses circulated predominantly in wild birds and poultry. In 2024 and 2025, 2.3.4.4b genotypes B3.13 and D1.1 were detected in United States dairy cattle. Using whole-genome and segment-specific phylodynamic inference, we estimate that B3.13 and D1.1 spilled over from wild birds into dairy cattle in late 2023 and late 2024, respectively. Spillover occurred shortly after the formation of the reassortant genotypes and was followed by months of cryptic transmission prior to detection. We found that both B3.13 and D1.1 evolved at higher rates in cattle relative to birds, primarily due to relaxed purifying selection. Site-specific analyses identified genomic sites under positive selection in cattle relative to birds, indicating adaptation and likely contributing to improved viral fitness after spillover. Intensified genomic surveillance in dairy cattle is essential as population immunity introduces additional selection pressures, with ever-changing risk for human emergence.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Evidence of latency reshapes our understanding of Ebola virus reservoir dynamics

The reservoir of Ebola virus (EBOV) has remained a mystery since the first recorded zoonotic epidemic in 1976. While recent outbreaks have revealed much about the epidemiological dynamics that sustain human-to-human transmission, the mechanisms by which the virus persists between epidemics are unknown. Observations of extreme EBOV evolutionary rate heterogeneity in humans suggest latency is an important, yet untested, factor in persistence between epidemics. We here explicitly model latency with a novel phylogenetic approach to characterise the natural history of EBOV and, by extension, its reservoir. We find evidence that EBOV undergoes extended periods (i.e., possibly decades) of quiescence in the reservoir. Accounting for these dynamics significantly changes our understanding of EBOVs evolutionary past and its geographic spread through Central Africa.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Parallel algorithms for phylogenetic inference under a structured coalescent approximation

While advances in molecular epidemiology and computational modeling have enhanced our capacity to track pathogen evolution, the accurate reconstruction of spatiotemporal transmission dynamics remains essential for developing epidemic preparedness frame-works and implementing outbreak response measures. Structured coalescent models offer a phylogeographic framework by restricting lineage coalescence events to geographically proximate host populations. Although the Bayesian structured coalescent approximation (BASTA) provides a tractable approach, contemporary phylogeographic analyses involving dozens of geographic localities and hundreds to thousands of viral genomes substantially exceed the computational capacity of existing implementations. The BASTA likelihood scales cubically with deme count and quadratically with sequence count due to matrix exponentiation and pairwise coalescent probability calculations. Here, we introduce a comprehensive algorithmic restructuring of the structured coalescent likelihood that eliminates redundancies, optimizes memory access, and exposes parallelization opportunities. Our approach reorganizes computations along three dimensions: (i) independent calculation of deme-transition probability matrices across time intervals; (ii) simultaneous evaluation of partial likelihood vectors within temporal slices; and (iii) concurrent aggregation of coalescent probabilities. Algorithmic restructuring cuts average coalescent likelihood computation by 7-8 fold, and parallelization further boosts performance to 10-26 fold, enabling joint phylogeographic analyses of dengue virus across 10 South American countries and H5N1 avian influenza across 20 Eurasian regions to finish in a fraction of prior time. This computational efficiency also enables comparison between backward-in-time structured coalescent approximations and forward-in-time phylogeographic methods, revealing that the former provides appropriately conservative posterior estimates, particularly at intermediate phylogenetic depths. We integrate our implementation into the popular BEAST X and BEAGLE software packages, with an accompanying interface in BEAUti X to easily set up the analyses, providing researchers with an accessible and scalable tool for real-time phylogeographic surveillance of rapidly evolving pathogens.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2025

Human outbreak detection and best practice MPXV analysis and interpretation with squirrel

High numbers of reported mpox cases and recent identification of multiple sustained human outbreaks of MPXV have highlighted the need for robust, best-practice genomic surveillance tools. In light of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many labs across the globe developed the capacity to do virus genome sequencing, however MPXV presents additional analytical challenges due to its large genome size, tracts of low-complexity or repeat regions, genetically distinct clades, and the need to perform bespoke APOBEC3-mutation reconstruction. We present squirrel (Some Quick Reconstruction to Resolve Evolutionary Links), an open source bioinformatic tool that can perform clade-aware alignment, mutation quality assessment, phylogenetic inference and automated APOBEC3-mutation classification on branches of the phylogeny. Squirrel can be run on the command line or launched through the EPI2ME GUI through the squirrel-nf workflow, enabling robust analysis without need for the command line. With the interactive output report produced and publication-ready APOBEC3-reconstruction visualisation, squirrel enables researchers to distinguish between zoonotic and sustained human outbreaks and help accurately inform public health responses.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Reducing Supply Chain Dependencies for Viral Genomic Surveillance: Get by with a Little HELP from Commercial Enzymes already in your Lab Freezer

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global laboratory supply chains, disrupting genomic surveillance efforts essential to epidemic response. To address this challenge, we developed ARTIC HELP (Homebrew Enzymes for Library Preparation), a practical, open-source adaptation of the widely adopted ARTIC nanopore sequencing protocol for viral genomic surveillance. We describe generic, cost-effective alternatives to all enzyme mixes used in tiling multiplex RT-PCR amplification of the virus genome, and the nanopore native barcoding workflow, including end-prep (EP), barcode ligation (BL), and adapter ligation (AL), making it broadly applicable to any laboratory. Through systematic evaluation, we identified a wild-type M-MLV reverse transcriptase and two types of proofreading DNA polymerases as effective alternatives when standard reagents are unavailable due to high cost or limited supply: B-family Pfu-based polymerases with a fused Sso7d DNA-binding domain, and blends combining A-family (Taq-based) and B-family (Pfu-based) polymerases. Validation on clinical samples of SARS-CoV-2 and Norovirus GII confirmed that the HELP workflow achieves genome coverage comparable to the ARTIC LoCost protocol. For SARS-CoV-2 samples (Ct [≤]28), the wild-type M-MLV RT combined with selected Pfu or A+B polymerases, along with optimised HELP mixes (EP, BL, AL), achieved genome coverage of 84.0-99.6%. For Norovirus GII (Ct [≤]32), the HELP workflow using one of the Pfu polymerases achieved genome coverage of >85% for six out of eight genotypes tested. Notably, several of the other polymerases tested showed reduced performance at higher Ct values. However, they still achieved strong coverage at Ct <24, supporting their use as emergency alternatives in rapid outbreak-response sequencing when viral input is high and RNA quality is sufficient. Our approach, ARTIC HELP, provides a framework which can be implemented to address supply chain disruptions, while maintaining robust genomic sequencing capabilities. A cost analysis highlights the well-known significant global disparities in reagent pricing, driven not by protocol differences but by import fees and supply barriers. Thus, our findings highlight the need for fairer global pricing models and support for local sourcing strategies like HELP, to promote equity in genomic research and ensure preparedness for future public health challenges.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2024

PrimalScheme: open-source community resources for low-cost viral genome sequencing

Viral genome sequencing using the ARTIC protocol has been a vital tool for understanding the spread of epidemics including Ebola, Zika, Covid-19 and Mpox and has seen widespread adoption due to its low cost and high sensitivity. Here, we describe PrimalScheme, an open-source toolkit and website that allows users to easily design primer schemes for amplicon sequencing of viruses, and has generated over 67,000 primer schemes for the global community since 2017. In January 2020, PrimalScheme was used to rapidly generate a primer scheme for SARS-CoV-2, with primer pools distributed to researchers from 44 countries to help scale-up genomic surveillance efforts. Overall, these primers were used to generate an estimated 18M genome sequences and the protocols were viewed online [~]250K times. To complement PrimalScheme, we have built PrimalScheme Labs, a scheme repository which allows users to find and share primer schemes as well as establishing a set of data standards. Through improvements to the primer design process, including the use of discrete primer clouds, we have expanded the use of amplicon sequencing to include diverse virus species. We demonstrate the utility of this approach through a high diversity pan-genotype Measles virus (MeV) scheme. We also demonstrate its use on a high sensitivity, short amplicon Monkeypox virus (MPXV) scheme with over 1000 primers, showing high genome recovery on low-titre clinical samples. These developments have implications for sequencing from samples such as wastewater, for genomic surveillance of endemic pathogens and in preparing for future pandemics.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2024

HIPSTR: highest independent posterior subtree reconstruction in TreeAnnotator X

In Bayesian phylogenetic and phylodynamic studies it is common to summarise the posterior distribution of trees with a time-calibrated consensus phylogeny. While the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree is often used for this purpose, we here show that a novel consensus tree method - the highest independent posterior subtree reconstruction, or HIPSTR - contains consistently higher supported clades over MCC. We also provide faster computational routines for estimating both consensus trees in an updated version of TreeAnnotator X, an open-source software program that summarizes the information from a sample of trees and returns many helpful statistics such as individual clade credibilities contained in the consensus tree. HIPSTR and MCC reconstructions on two Ebola virus and two SARS-CoV-2 data sets show that HIPSTR yields consensus trees that consistently contain clades with higher support compared to MCC trees. The MCC trees regularly fail to include several clades with very high posterior probability ([≥] 0.95) as well as a large number of clades with moderate to high posterior probability ([≥] 0.50), whereas HIPSTR achieves near-perfect performance in this respect. HIPSTR also exhibits favorable computational performance over MCC in TreeAnnotator X. Comparison to the recently developed CCD0-MAP algorithm yielded mixed results, and requires more in-depth exploration in follow-up studies. TreeAnnotator X - which is part of the BEAST X (v10.5.0) software package - is available at https://github.com/beast-dev/beast-mcmc/releases.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2024

ARTIC RSV amplicon sequencing reveals global RSV genotype dynamics.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections (LTRIs) in young children and adults over 65, contributing significantly to global healthcare burdens. With the recent approval of multiple pharmacological interventions for RSV, there is an increased demand for efficient, high-throughput sequencing methods to monitor RSV genetic diversity and any potential impact these interventions may have. Here we introduce two novel amplicon-based sequencing schemes designed for RSV A and B, optimised for integration with widespread existing ARTIC sequencing workflows. We demonstrate that these primer schemes can produce high quality genomes from RSV samples across the globe, with eight laboratories in five countries generating complete genomes on both Nanopore and Illumina sequencing platforms. The ability to effectively multiplex these RSV A and B primer schemes, enables streamlined, high-throughput sequencing without prior subtyping. Furthermore, these results provide a snapshot of the circulating diversity of RSV. Phylogenetic analysis of the 882 samples sequenced for this study suggests only minimal geographic clustering of RSV sequences, underscoring the global nature of RSV spread. It also highlights the distinct lineage dynamics seen between RSV A and B. This study represents an advancement in RSV genomics, providing robust tools for global sequencing efforts aimed at tracking RSV evolution and assessing the efficacy of new therapeutic interventions both rapidly and at scale.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2023

Genetic tracing of market wildlife and viruses at the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic

Zoonotic spillovers of viruses have occurred through the animal trade worldwide. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was traced epidemiologically to the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, the site with the most reported wildlife vendors in the city of Wuhan, China. Here, we analyze publicly available qPCR and sequencing data from environmental samples collected in the Huanan market in early 2020. We demonstrate that the SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity linked to this market is consistent with market emergence, and find increased SARS-CoV-2 positivity near and within a particular wildlife stall. We identify wildlife DNA in all SARS-CoV-2 positive samples from this stall. This includes species such as civets, bamboo rats, porcupines, hedgehogs, and one species, raccoon dogs, known to be capable of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We also detect other animal viruses that infect raccoon dogs, civets, and bamboo rats. Combining metagenomic and phylogenetic approaches, we recover genotypes of market animals and compare them to those from other markets. This analysis provides the genetic basis for a short list of potential intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2 to prioritize for retrospective serological testing and viral sampling.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2023

Clockor2: Inferring global and local strict molecular clocks using root-to-tip regression

Molecular sequence data from rapidly evolving organisms are often sampled at different points in time. Sampling times can then be used for molecular clock calibration. The root-to-tip (RTT) regression is an essential tool to assess the degree to which the data behave in a clock-like fashion. Here, we introduce Clockor2, a client-side web application for conducting RTT regression. Clockor2 uniquely allows users to quickly fit local and global molecular clocks, thus handling the increasing complexity of genomic datasets that sample beyond the assumption homogeneous host populations. Clockor2 is efficient, handling trees of up to the order of 104 tips, with significant speed increases compared to other RTT regression applications. Although clockor2 is written as a web application, all data processing happens on the client-side, meaning that data never leaves the users computer. Clockor2 is freely available at https://clockor2.github.io/.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Automated Agnostic Designation of Pathogen Lineages

Pathogen nomenclature systems are a key component of effective communication and collaboration for researchers and public health workers. Since February 2021, the Pango nomenclature for SARS-CoV-2 has been sustained by crowdsourced lineage proposals as new isolates were added to a growing global dataset. This approach to dynamic lineage designation is dependent on a large and active epidemiological community identifying and curating each new lineage. This is vulnerable to time-critical delays as well as regional and personal bias. To address these issues, we developed a simple heuristic approach that divides a phylogenetic tree into lineages based on shared ancestral genotypes. We additionally provide a framework that automatically prioritizes the lineages by growth rate and association with key mutations or locations, extensible to any pathogen. Our implementation is efficient on extremely large phylogenetic trees and produces similar results to existing Pango lineage designations when applied to SARS-CoV-2. This method offers a simple, automated and consistent approach to pathogen nomenclature that can assist researchers in developing and maintaining phylogeny-based classifications in the face of ever increasing genomic datasets.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Putative APOBEC3 deaminase editing in MPXV as evidence for sustained human transmission since at least 2016.

Mpox is often described as being endemic in West and Central Africa as a zoonotic disease that transmits through contact with the reservoir rodent host, likely a species of African squirrel. In May 2022, human cases of Mpox were detected spreading internationally beyond countries with known endemic reservoirs. At time of writing, 84,700 confirmed cases have been reported in 110 countries. When the first cases from 2022 were sequenced, it was seen that they shared 42 single nucleotide differences from the closest mpox virus (MPXV) genome sampled in 2018. This number of changes within 3-4 years is unexpectedly large and points to a much greater evolutionary rate than expected for a poxvirus. Strikingly, most nucleotide changes are of a specific type - a dinucleotide change from TC->TT or its reverse complement GA->AA. This mutation type is characteristic of the action of APOBEC3 deaminases; host-enzymes with reported antiviral function. Analysis of MPXV genomes sampled from 2017 to 2022 showed further evidence of TC->TT mutation pattern enrichment, with 93% of transmitted single nucleotide mutations since 2017 consistent with APOBEC3 editing. Assuming APOBEC-editing is characteristic of MPXV infection in human hosts, we propose an APOBEC clock that - at a rate of ~6 APOBEC3 mutations per year - estimates MPXV has been circulating in humans since 2016. This evolutionary pattern of host-enzyme editing has implications for the longer-term fitness of the virus in this epidemic as such mechanisms are primarily antiviral in function, but in the context of a poxvirus also provide a source of variation that may conceivably facilitate adaptation.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Different Coexisting Mpox Lineages Were Continuously Circulating in Humans Prior to 2022

The origin and hazardous potential of human mpox is obscured by a lack of genomic data between the 2018, when exportations from Nigeria were recorded, and 2022 when the global outbreak started. Here, 18 genomes from patients across southern Nigeria in 2019/20 reveal multiple lineages of Monkeypox virus have achieved sustained human-to-human transmission, co-existing in humans for several years and accumulating mutations consistent with APOBEC3 activity suggesting the virus in humans is now segregated from its natural reservoir. Remarkably, three genomes have disruptions in the A46R gene, which contributes to innate immune modulation. The data demonstrates that the A.2 lineage, multiply exported to North America since 2021 independently of the global outbreak, has persisted in Nigeria for more than two years prior to its latest exportation. One-Sentence SummaryMpox is now a human diseae evolving in humans with multiple variants taking separate paths towards adaptation, some analogous to those of Variola

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2022

The origins and molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in the UK

The first SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) to be designated was lineage B.1.1.7, later labelled by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as Alpha. Originating in early Autumn but discovered in December 2020, it spread rapidly and caused large waves of infections worldwide. The Alpha variant is notable for being defined by a long ancestral phylogenetic branch with an increased evolutionary rate, along which only two sequences have been sampled. Alpha genomes comprise a well-supported monophyletic clade within which the evolutionary rate is more typical of SARS-CoV-2. The Alpha epidemic continued to grow despite the continued restrictions on social mixing across the UK, and the imposition of new restrictions, in particular the English national lockdown in November 2020. While these interventions succeeded in reducing the absolute number of cases, the impact of these non-pharmaceutical interventions was predominantly to drive the decline of the SARS-CoV-2 lineages which preceded Alpha. We investigate the only two sampled sequences that fall on the branch ancestral to Alpha. We find that one is likely to be a true intermediate sequence, providing information about the order of mutational events that led to Alpha. We explore alternate hypotheses that can explain how Alpha acquired a large number of mutations yet remained largely unobserved in a region of high genomic surveillance: an under-sampled geographical location, a non-human animal population, or a chronically-infected individual. We conclude that the last hypothesis provides the best explanation of the observed behaviour and dynamics of the variant, although we find that the individual need not be immunocompromised, as persistently-infected immunocompetent hosts also display a higher within-host rate of evolution. Finally, we compare the ancestral branches and mutation profiles of other VOCs to each other, and identify that Delta appears to be an outlier both in terms of the genomic locations of its defining mutations, and its lack of rapid evolutionary rate on the ancestral branch. As new variants, such as Omicron, continue to evolve (potentially through similar mechanisms) it remains important to investigate the origins of other variants to identify ways to potentially disrupt their evolution and emergence.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Making Genomic Surveillance Deliver: A Lineage Classification and Nomenclature System to Inform Rabies Virus Elimination

The availability of pathogen sequence data and use of genomic surveillance is rapidly increasing. Genomic tools and classification systems need updating to reflect this. Here, rabies virus is used as an example to showcase the potential value of updated genomic tools to enhance surveillance to better understand epidemiological dynamics and improve disease control. Previous studies have described the evolutionary history of rabies virus; however, the resulting taxonomy lacks the definition necessary to identify incursions, lineage turnover and transmission routes at high resolution. Here we propose a lineage classification system based on the dynamic nomenclature used for SARS-CoV-2, defining a lineage by phylogenetic methods, for tracking virus spread and comparing sequences across geographic areas. We demonstrate this system through application to the globally distributed Cosmopolitan clade of rabies virus, defining 73 total lineages within the clade, beyond the 22 previously reported. We further show how integration of this tool with a new rabies virus sequence data resource (RABV-GLUE) enables rapid application, for example, highlighting lineage dynamics relevant to control and elimination programmes, such as identifying importations and their sources, and areas of persistence and transmission, including transboundary incursions. This system and the tools developed should be useful for coordinating and targeting control programmes and monitoring progress as we work towards eliminating dog-mediated rabies, as well as having potential for broad application to the surveillance of other viruses. Author SummaryThe importance of the ability to track the diversity and spread of viruses in a universal way that can be clearly communicated has been highlighted during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This, accompanied with the increase in the availability and use of pathogen sequence data, means the development of new genomic tools and classification systems can strengthen outbreak response and disease control. Here, we present an easy-to-use objective and transferable classification tool for tracking viruses at high resolution. We use rabies virus, a neglected zoonotic disease that causes around 59,000 human deaths each year, as an example use case of this tool. Applying our tool to a global clade of rabies virus, we find an over 200% increase in the definition at which we can classify the virus, allowing us to identify areas of persistence and transmission that were not previously apparent, and patterns of virus spread. Insights from the application of this tool should prove valuable in targeting vaccination campaigns and improving surveillance as countries work towards the elimination of dog-mediated rabies.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2021

Pango lineage designation and assignment using SARS-CoV-2 spike gene nucleotide sequences

More than 2 million SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences have been generated and shared since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and constitute a vital information source that informs outbreak control, disease surveillance, and public health policy. The Pango dynamic nomenclature is a popular system for classifying and naming genetically-distinct lineages of SARS-CoV-2, including variants of concern, and is based on the analysis of complete or near-complete virus genomes. However, for several reasons, nucleotide sequences may be generated that cover only the spike gene of SARS-CoV-2. It is therefore important to understand how much information about Pango lineage status is contained in spike-only nucleotide sequences. Here we explore how Pango lineages might be reliably designated and assigned to spike-only nucleotide sequences. We survey the genetic diversity of such sequences, and investigate the information they contain about Pango lineage status. Although many lineages, including the main variants of concern, can be identified clearly using spike-only sequences, some spike-only sequences are shared among tens or hundreds of Pango lineages. To facilitate the classification of SARS-CoV-2 lineages using subgenomic sequences we introduce the notion of designating such sequences to a "lineage set", which represents the range of Pango lineages that are consistent with the observed mutations in a given spike sequence. These data provide a foundation for the development of software tools that can assign newly-generated spike nucleotide sequences to Pango lineage sets.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2020

The circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike variant N439K maintains fitness while evading antibody-mediated immunity

SARS-CoV-2 can mutate to evade immunity, with consequences for the efficacy of emerging vaccines and antibody therapeutics. Herein we demonstrate that the immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) receptor binding motif (RBM) is the most divergent region of S, and provide epidemiological, clinical, and molecular characterization of a prevalent RBM variant, N439K. We demonstrate that N439K S protein has enhanced binding affinity to the hACE2 receptor, and that N439K virus has similar clinical outcomes and in vitro replication fitness as compared to wild- type. We observed that the N439K mutation resulted in immune escape from a panel of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, including one in clinical trials, as well as from polyclonal sera from a sizeable fraction of persons recovered from infection. Immune evasion mutations that maintain virulence and fitness such as N439K can emerge within SARS-CoV-2 S, highlighting the need for ongoing molecular surveillance to guide development and usage of vaccines and therapeutics.

microbiology↗