bioRxiv2025
BackgroundDespite improved outcomes with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (A+B) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), primary refractoriness (PRef), characterised by early progression or short-lived disease stabilisation following treatment, remains a significant and poorly understood clinical challenge. MethodsWe analysed 1296 patients with HCC and Child-Pugh A liver cirrhosis treated with frontline A+B (AB-real) and validated findings in 645 trial participants recruited to IMbrave150 and GO30140. PRef was defined by Society for the Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) criteria as progressive disease in the first 6 months after treatment initiation. Patients who achieved complete response, partial response or stable disease for [≥] 6 months were classified as responders. We performed a multi-parametric analysis of pre-treatment tumour tissue including machine learning-based quantification of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes, imaging mass cytometry and RNA sequencing (RNAseq) to evaluate differences in the tumour microenvironment (TME) of PRef versus responding patients. We employed conditional inference tree analyses to provide a hierarchical organisation of determinants of PRef. ResultsAmong 677 AB-real and 378 trial patients evaluable by SITC criteria, PRef identified inferior median OS in comparison with responding patients (AB-real: 7.3 vs. 31.5 months, HR 3.7, 95%CI 2.8-8.5, p<0.001; Trials: 10.8 vs. NR, HR 4.6, 95%CI 3.3-6.3, p<0.001). PRef patients exhibited higher baseline systemic inflammation (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, NLR [≥]3), a distinctively immunosuppressive TME enriched in CD163+ tumour-associated macrophages and a higher Treg/Teff ratio. RNAseq of tumour tissue demonstrated lower intrinsic immunogenicity in PRef samples, characterised by repressed IFN-{gamma} and Teff signatures, with elevated myeloid infiltration. Conditional inference tree analysis identified IFN-{gamma} signature downregulation combined with NLR [≥]3 as the strongest contributor of PRef. ConclusionsPRef to A+B identifies a distinct biological entity characterised by unopposed systemic inflammation, myeloid cell infiltration and T-cell depletion. Targeting myeloid-mediated immunosuppression, particularly in patients with low IFN-{gamma} signature expression and elevated NLR might enhance responsiveness to A+B. HighlightsO_LIPrimary refractoriness to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab in hepatocellular carcinoma, as defined by SITC criteria, is associated with poor clinical outcomes. C_LIO_LITumour microenvironment profiling reveals an immunosuppressive phenotype characterized by high myeloid infiltration, reduced interferon-{gamma} signalling, and T-cell depletion. C_LIO_LIThe combination of systemic inflammation and low IFN-{gamma} signature expression strongly predicts primary refractoriness and may inform therapeutic decision-making. C_LI