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Po-Ru Loh

Publications and source records attributed to Po-Ru Loh.

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Genomic analyses for age at menarche identify 389 independent signals and indicate BMI-independent effects of puberty timing on cancer susceptibility

The timing of puberty is a highly polygenic childhood trait that is epidemiologically associated with various adult diseases. Here, we analyse 1000-Genome reference panel imputed genotype data on up to ~370,000 women and identify 389 independent signals (all P<5x10-8) for age at menarche, a notable milestone in female pubertal development. In Icelandic data from deCODE, these signals explain ~7.4% of the population variance in age at menarche, corresponding to one quarter of the estimated heritability. We implicate over 250 genes via coding variation or associated gene expression, and demonstrate enrichment across genes active in neural tissues. We identify multiple rare variants near the imprinted genes MKRN3 and DLK1 that exhibit large effects on menarche only when paternally inherited. Disproportionate effects of variants on early or late puberty timing are observed: single variant and heritability estimates are larger for early than late puberty timing in females. The opposite pattern is seen in males, with larger estimates for late than early puberty timing. Mendelian randomization analyses indicate causal inverse associations, independent of BMI, between puberty timing and risks for breast and endometrial cancers in women, and prostate cancer in men. In aggregate, our findings reveal new complexity in the genetic regulation of puberty timing and support new causal links with adult cancer risks.

Genomics

Correcting subtle stratification in summary association statistics

Population stratification is a well-documented confounder in GWASes, and is often addressed by including principal component (PC) covariates computed from common SNPs (SNP-PCs). In our analyses of summary statistics from 36 GWASes (mean n=88k), including 20 GWASes using 23andMe data that included SNP-PC covariates, we observed a significantly inflated LD score regression (LDSC) intercept for several traits--suggesting that residual stratification remains a concern, even when SNPPC covariates are included.\n\nHere we propose a new method, PC loading regression, to correct for stratification in summary statistics by leveraging SNP loadings for PCs computed in a large reference panel. In addition to SNP-PCs, the method can be applied to haploSNP-PCs, i.e. PCs computed from a larger number of rare haplotype variants that better capture subtle structure. Using simulations based on real genotypes from 54,000 individuals of diverse European ancestry from the Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging (GERA) cohort, we show that PC loading regression effectively corrects for stratification along top PCs.\n\nWe applied PC loading regression to several traits with inflated LDSC intercepts. Correcting for the top four SNP-PCs in GERA data, we observe a significant reduction in LDSC intercept height summary statistics from the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium, but not for 23andMe summary statistics, which already included SNP-PC covariates. However, when correcting for additional haploSNP-PCs in 23andMe GWASes, inflation in the LDSC intercept was eliminated for eye color, hair color, and skin color and substantially reduced for height (1.41 to 1.16; n=430k). Correcting for haploSNP-PCs in GIANT height summary statistics eliminated inflation in the LDSC intercept (from 1.35 to 1.00; n=250k), eliminating 27 significant association signals including one at the LCT locus, which is highly differentiated among European populations and widely known to produce spurious signals. Overall, our results suggest that uncorrected population stratification is a concern in GWASes of large sample size and that PC loading regression can correct for this stratification.

Genetics

Population structure of UK Biobank and ancient Eurasians reveals adaptation at genes influencing blood pressure

Analyzing genetic differences between closely related populations can be a powerful way to detect recent adaptation. The very large sample size of the UK Biobank is ideal for detecting selection using population differentiation, and enables an analysis of UK population structure at fine resolution. In analyses of 113,851 UK Biobank samples, population structure in the UK is dominated by 5 principal components (PCs) spanning 6 clusters: Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England, southern England, and two Welsh clusters. Analyses with ancient Eurasians show that populations in the northern UK have higher levels of Steppe ancestry, and that UK population structure cannot be explained as a simple mixture of Celts and Saxons. A scan for unusual population differentiation along top PCs identified a genome-wide significant signal of selection at the coding variant rs601338 in FUT2 (p = 9.16 x 10-9). In addition, by combining evidence of unusual differentiation within the UK with evidence from ancient Eurasians, we identified new genome-wide significant (p < 5 x 10-8) signals of recent selection at two additional loci: CYP1A2/CSK and F12. We detected strong associations to diastolic blood pressure in the UK Biobank for the variants with new selection signals at CYP1A2/CSK (p = 1.10 x 10-19)) and for variants with ancient Eurasian selection signals in the ATXN2/SH2B3 locus (p = 8.00 x 10-33), implicating recent adaptation related to blood pressure.

Genetics

Reference-based phasing using the Haplotype Reference Consortium panel

Haplotype phasing is a fundamental problem in medical and population genetics. Phasing is generally performed via statistical phasing within a genotyped cohort, an approach that can attain high accuracy in very large cohorts but attains lower accuracy in smaller cohorts. Here, we instead explore the paradigm of reference-based phasing. We introduce a new phasing algorithm, Eagle2, that attains high accuracy across a broad range of cohort sizes by efficiently leveraging information from large external reference panels (such as the Haplotype Reference Consortium, HRC) using a new data structure based on the positional BurrowsWheeler transform. We demonstrate that Eagle2 attains a {approx}20x speedup and {approx}10% increase in accuracy compared to reference-based phasing using SHAPEIT2. On European-ancestry samples, Eagle2 with the HRC panel achieves >2x the accuracy of 1000 Genomes-based phasing. Eagle2 is open source and freely available for HRC-based phasing via the Sanger Imputation Service and the Michigan Imputation Server.

Genetics

Subtle stratification confounds estimates of heritability from rare variants

Genome-wide significant associations generally explain only a small proportion of the narrow-sense heritability of complex disease (h2). While considerably more heritability is explained by all genotyped SNPs (hg2), for most traits, much heritability remains missing (hg2 < h2). Rare variants, poorly tagged by genotyped SNPs, are a major potential source of the gap between hg2 and h2. Recent efforts to assess the contribution of both sequenced and imputed rare variants to phenotypes suggest that substantial heritability may lie in these variants. Here we analyze sequenced SNPs, imputed SNPs and haploSNPs-- haplotype variants constructed from within a sample, without using a reference panel-- and show that studies of heritability from these variants may be strongly confounded by subtle population stratification. For example, when meta-analyzing heritability estimates from 22 randomly ascertained case-control traits from the GERA cohort, we observe a statistically significant increase in heritability explained by imputed SNPs even after correcting for principal components (PCs) from genotyped (or imputed) SNPs. However, this increase is eliminated when correcting for stratification using PCs from a larger number of haploSNPs. We note that subtle stratification may also impact estimates of heritability from array SNPs, although we find that this is generally a less severe problem. Overall, our results suggest that estimating the heritability explained by rare variants for case-control traits requires exquisite control for population stratification, but current methods may not provide this level of control.

Genetics

Mixed Model Association with Family-Biased Case-Control Ascertainment

Mixed models have become the tool of choice for genetic association studies; however, standard mixed model methods may be poorly calibrated or underpowered under family sampling bias and/or case-control ascertainment. Previously, we introduced a liability threshold based mixed model association statistic (LTMLM) to address case-control ascertainment in unrelated samples. Here, we consider family-biased case-control ascertainment, where cases and controls are ascertained non-randomly with respect to family relatedness. Previous work has shown that this type of ascertainment can severely bias heritability estimates; we show here that it also impacts mixed model association statistics. We introduce a family-based association statistic (LT-Fam) that is robust to this problem. Similar to LTMLM, LT-Fam is computed from posterior mean liabilities (PML) under a liability threshold model; however, LT-Fam uses published narrow-sense heritability estimates to avoid the problem of biased heritability estimation, enabling correct calibration. In simulations with family-biased case-control ascertainment, LT-Fam was correctly calibrated (average{chi} 2 = 1.00), whereas Armitage Trend Test (ATT) and standard mixed model association (MLM) were mis-calibrated (e.g. average{chi} 2 = 0.50-0.67 for MLM). LT-Fam also attained higher power in these simulations, with increases of up to 8% vs. ATT and 3% vs. MLM after correcting for mis-calibration. In 1,269 type 2 diabetes cases and 5,819 controls from the CARe cohort, downsampled to induce family-biased ascertainment, LT-Fam was correctly calibrated whereas ATT and MLM were again mis-calibrated (e.g. average{chi} 2 = 0.60-0.82 for MLM). Our results highlight the importance of modeling family sampling bias in case-control data sets with related samples.

Genetics

Fast and accurate long-range phasing in a UK Biobank cohort

Recent work has leveraged the extensive genotyping of the Icelandic population to perform long-range phasing (LRP), enabling accurate imputation and association analysis of rare variants in target samples typed on genotyping arrays. Here, we develop a fast and accurate LRP method, Eagle, that extends this paradigm to populations with much smaller proportions of genotyped samples by harnessing long (>4cM) identical-by-descent (IBD) tracts shared among distantly related individuals. We applied Eagle to N=150K samples (0.2% of the British population) from the UK Biobank, and we determined that it is 1-2 orders of magnitude faster than existing methods while achieving similar or better phasing accuracy (switch error rate {approx}0.3%, corresponding to perfect phase in most 10Mb segments). We also observed that when used within an imputation pipeline, Eagle pre-phasing improved downstream imputation accuracy compared to pre-phasing in batches using existing methods (as necessary to achieve comparable computational cost).

Genetics

Haplotypes of common SNPs can explain missing heritability of complex diseases

While genome-wide significant associations generally explain only a small proportion of the narrow-sense heritability of complex disease (h2), recent work has shown that more heritability is explained by all genotyped SNPs (hg2). However, much of the heritability is still missing (hg2 < h2). For example, for schizophrenia, h2 is estimated at 0.7-0.8 but hg2 is estimated at [~]0.3. Efforts at increasing coverage through accurately imputed variants have yielded only small increases in the heritability explained, and poorly imputed variants can lead to assay artifacts for case-control traits. We propose to estimate the heritability explained by a set of haplotype variants (haploSNPs) constructed directly from the study sample (hhap2). Our method constructs a set of haplotypes from phased genotypes by extending shared haplotypes subject to the 4-gamete test. In a large schizophrenia data set (PGC2-SCZ), haploSNPs with MAF > 0.1% explained substantially more phenotypic variance (hhap2 = 0.64 (S.E. 0.084)) than genotyped SNPs alone (hg2 = 0.32 (S.E. 0.029)). These estimates were based on cross-cohort comparisons, ensuring that cohort-specific assay artifacts did not contribute to our estimates. In a large multiple sclerosis data set (WTCCC2-MS), we observed an even larger difference between hhap2 and hg2, though data from other cohorts will be required to validate this result. Overall, our results suggest that haplotypes of common SNPs can explain a large fraction of missing heritability of complex disease, shedding light on genetic architecture and informing disease mapping strategies.

Genetics

Fast principal components analysis reveals convergent evolution of ADH1B gene in Europe and East Asia

Searching for genetic variants with unusual differentiation between subpopulations is an established approach for identifying signals of natural selection. However, existing methods generally require discrete subpopulations. We introduce a method that infers selection using principal components (PCs) by identifying variants whose differentiation along top PCs is significantly greater than the null distribution of genetic drift. To enable the application of this method to large data sets, we developed the FastPCA software, which employs recent advances in random matrix theory to accurately approximate top PCs while reducing time and memory cost from quadratic to linear in the number of individuals, a computational improvement of many orders of magnitude. We apply FastPCA to a cohort of 54,734 European Americans, identifying 5 distinct subpopulations spanning the top 4 PCs. Using the PC-based test for natural selection, we replicate previously known selected loci and identify three new genome-wide significant signals of selection, including selection in Europeans at the ADH1B gene. The coding variant rs1229984*T has previously been associated to a decreased risk of alcoholism and shown to be under selection in East Asians; we show that it is a rare example of independent evolution on two continents. We also detect new selection signals at IGFBP3 and IGH, which have also previously been associated to human disease.

Bioinformatics

Two variance component model improves genetic prediction in family data sets

Genetic prediction based on either identity by state (IBS) sharing or pedigree information has been investigated extensively using Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) methods. Such methods were pioneered in the plant and animal breeding literature and have since been applied to predict human traits with the aim of eventual clinical utility. However, methods to combine IBS sharing and pedigree information for genetic prediction in humans have not been explored. We introduce a two variance component model for genetic prediction: one component for IBS sharing and one for approximate pedigree structure, both estimated using genetic markers. In simulations using real genotypes from CARe and FHS family cohorts, we demonstrate that the two variance component model achieves gains in prediction r2 over standard BLUP at current sample sizes, and we project based on simulations that these gains will continue to hold at larger sample sizes. Accordingly, in analyses of four quantitative phenotypes from CARe and two quantitative phenotypes from FHS, the two variance component model significantly improves prediction r2 in each case, with up to a 20% relative improvement. We also find that standard mixed model association tests can produce inflated test statistics in data sets with related individuals, whereas the two variance component model corrects for inflation.\n\nAuthor SummaryGenetic prediction has been well-studied in plant and animal breeding and has generated considerable recent interest in human genetics, both in family data sets and in population cohorts. Many prediction studies are based on the widely used Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) approach, which performs a mixed model analysis using a genetic relationship matrix that is either estimated from genotype data--thus measuring identity-by-state (IBS) sharing--or obtained from family pedigree information. We show here that a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy in family data sets can be obtained by jointly modeling both IBS sharing and approximate pedigree structure, both estimated using genetic markers, using separate variance components within a two variance component mixed model. We demonstrate the performance of this model in simulations and real data sets. We also show that previous mixed model association methods suffer from inflated test statistics in family data sets due to their failure to account for the different heritability parameters corresponding to IBS sharing vs. pedigree relatedness. Our two variance component model provides a solution to this problem without compromising statistical power.

Genetics

Contrasting regional architectures of schizophrenia and other complex diseases using fast variance components analysis

Heritability analyses of GWAS cohorts have yielded important insights into complex disease architecture, and increasing sample sizes hold the promise of further discoveries. Here, we analyze the genetic architecture of schizophrenia in 49,806 samples from the PGC, and nine complex diseases in 54,734 samples from the GERA cohort. For schizophrenia, we infer an overwhelmingly polygenic disease architecture in which [&ge;]71% of 1Mb genomic regions harbor at least one variant influencing schizophrenia risk. We also observe significant enrichment of heritability in GC-rich regions and in higher-frequency SNPs for both schizophrenia and GERA diseases. In bivariate analyses, we observe significant genetic correlations (ranging from 0.18 to 0.85) among several pairs of GERA diseases; genetic correlations were on average 1.3x stronger than correlations of overall disease liabilities. To accomplish these analyses, we developed a fast algorithm for multi-component, multi-trait variance components analysis that overcomes prior computational barriers that made such analyses intractable at this scale.

Genetics

Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk, and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves LD-pruning markers and applying a P-value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and may reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce a new method, LDpred, which infers the posterior mean causal effect size of each marker using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the pruning/thresholding approach, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, prediction R2 increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia data set and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis data set. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease data sets and when predicting in non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase.

Bioinformatics

Calibrating the Human Mutation Rate via Ancestral Recombination Density in Diploid Genomes

The human mutation rate is an essential parameter for studying the evolution of our species, interpreting present-day genetic variation, and understanding the incidence of genetic disease. Nevertheless, our current estimates of the rate are uncertain. Most notably, recent approaches based on counting de novo mutations in family pedigrees have yielded significantly smaller values than classical methods based on sequence divergence. Here, we propose a new method that uses the fine-scale human recombination map to calibrate the rate of accumulation of mutations. By comparing local heterozygosity levels in diploid genomes to the genetic distance scale over which these levels change, we are able to estimate a long-term mutation rate averaged over hundreds or thousands of generations. We infer a rate of 1.61 {+/-} 0.13 x 10-8 mutations per base per generation, which falls in between phylogenetic and pedigree-based estimates, and we suggest possible mechanisms to reconcile our estimate with previous studies. Our results support intermediate-age divergences among human populations and between humans and other great apes.

Genetics

Partitioning heritability by functional category using GWAS summary statistics

Recent work has demonstrated that some functional categories of the genome contribute disproportionately to the heritability of complex diseases. Here, we analyze a broad set of functional elements, including cell-type-specific elements, to estimate their polygenic contributions to heritability in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 17 complex diseases and traits spanning a total of 1.3 million phenotype measurements. To enable this analysis, we introduce a new method for partitioning heritability from GWAS summary statistics while controlling for linked markers. This new method is computationally tractable at very large sample sizes, and leverages genome-wide information. Our results include a large enrichment of heritability in conserved regions across many traits; a very large immunological disease-specific enrichment of heritability in FANTOM5 enhancers; and many cell-type-specific enrichments including significant enrichment of central nervous system cell types in body mass index, age at menarche, educational attainment, and smoking behavior. These results demonstrate that GWAS can aid in understanding the biological basis of disease and provide direction for functional follow-up.

Genetics

Mixed Model with Correction for Case-Control Ascertainment Increases Association Power

We introduce a Liability Threshold Mixed Linear Model (LTMLM) association statistic for ascertained case-control studies that increases power vs. existing mixed model methods, with a well-controlled false-positive rate. Recent work has shown that existing mixed model methods suffer a loss in power under case-control ascertainment, but no solution has been proposed. Here, we solve this problem using a chi-square score statistic computed from posterior mean liabilities (PML) under the liability threshold model. Each individuals PML is conditional not only on that individuals case-control status, but also on every individuals case-control status and on the genetic relationship matrix obtained from the data. The PML are estimated using a multivariate Gibbs sampler, with the liability-scale phenotypic covariance matrix based on the genetic relationship matrix (GRM) and a heritability parameter estimated via Haseman-Elston regression on case-control phenotypes followed by transformation to liability scale. In simulations of unrelated individuals, the LTMLM statistic was correctly calibrated and achieved higher power than existing mixed model methods in all scenarios tested, with the magnitude of the improvement depending on sample size and severity of case-control ascertainment. In a WTCCC2 multiple sclerosis data set with >10,000 samples, LTMLM was correctly calibrated and attained a 4.1% improvement (P = 0.007) in chi-square statistics (vs. existing mixed model methods) at 75 known associated SNPs, consistent with simulations. Larger increases in power are expected at larger sample sizes. In conclusion, an increase in power over existing mixed model methods is available for ascertained case-control studies of diseases with low prevalence.

Genetics

Efficient Bayesian mixed model analysis increases association power in large cohorts

Linear mixed models are a powerful statistical tool for identifying genetic associations and avoiding confounding. However, existing methods are computationally intractable in large cohorts, and may not optimize power. All existing methods require time cost O(MN2) (where N = #samples and M = #SNPs) and implicitly assume an infinitesimal genetic architecture in which effect sizes are normally distributed, which can limit power. Here, we present a far more efficient mixed model association method, BOLT-LMM, which requires only a small number of O(MN) iterations and increases power by modeling more realistic, non-infinitesimal genetic architectures via a Bayesian mixture prior on marker effect sizes. We applied BOLT-LMM to nine quantitative traits in 23,294 samples from the Womens Genome Health Study (WGHS) and observed significant increases in power, consistent with simulations. Theory and simulations show that the boost in power increases with cohort size, making BOLT-LMM appealing for GWAS in large cohorts.

Genetics

Reconstructing Austronesian population history in Island Southeast Asia

Austronesian languages are spread across half the globe, from Easter Island to Madagascar. Evidence from linguistics and archaeology indicates that the \"Austronesian expansion,\" which began 4-5 thousand years ago, likely had roots in Taiwan, but the ancestry of present-day Austronesian-speaking populations remains controversial. Here, focusing primarily on Island Southeast Asia, we analyze genome-wide data from 56 populations using new methods for tracing ancestral gene flow. We show that all sampled Austronesian groups harbor ancestry that is more closely related to aboriginal Taiwanese than to any present-day mainland population. Surprisingly, western Island Southeast Asian populations have also inherited ancestry from a source nested within the variation of present-day populations speaking Austro-Asiatic languages, which have historically been nearly exclusive to the mainland. Thus, either there was once a substantial Austro-Asiatic presence in Island Southeast Asia, or Austronesian speakers migrated to and through the mainland, admixing there before continuing to western Indonesia.

Genetics

LD Score Regression Distinguishes Confounding from Polygenicity in Genome-Wide Association Studies

Both polygenicity1,2 (i.e. many small genetic effects) and confounding biases, such as cryptic relatedness and population stratification3, can yield inflated distributions of test statistics in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, current methods cannot distinguish between inflation from bias and true signal from polygenicity. We have developed an approach that quantifies the contributions of each by examining the relationship between test statistics and linkage disequilibrium (LD). We term this approach LD Score regression. LD Score regression provides an upper bound on the contribution of confounding bias to the observed inflation in test statistics and can be used to estimate a more powerful correction factor than genomic control4-14. We find strong evidence that polygenicity accounts for the majority of test statistic inflation in many GWAS of large sample size.

Genomics