Biology subjects

Plowright, R. K.

Publications and source records attributed to Plowright, R. K..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Optimizing non-invasive sampling of an infectious bat virus

Notable outbreaks of infectious viruses resulting from spillover events from bats have brought much attention to the ecological origins of bat-borne zoonoses, resulting in an increase in ecological and epidemiological studies on bat populations in Africa, Asia, and Australia. The aim of many of these studies is to identify new viral agents with field sampling methods that collect pooled urine samples from large plastic sheets placed under a bat roost. The efficiency of under-roost sampling also makes it an attractive method for gathering roost-level prevalence data. However, the method allows multiple individuals to contribute to a pooled sample, potentially introducing positive bias. To assess the ability of under-roost sampling to accurately estimate viral prevalence, we constructed a probabilistic model to explore the relationship between four sampling designs (quadrant, uniform, stratified, and random) and estimation bias. We modeled bat density and movement with a Poisson cluster process and spatial kernels, and simulated the four underroost sheet sampling designs by manipulating a spatial grid of hexagonal tiles. We performed global sensitivity analyses to identify major sources of estimation bias and provide recommendations for field studies that wish to estimate roost-level prevalence. We found that the quadrant-based design had a positive bias 5-7 times higher than other designs due to spatial auto-correlation among sampling sheets and clustering of bats in the roost. The sampling technique is therefore highly sensitive to viral presence; but lacks specificity, providing poor information regarding dynamics in viral prevalence. Given population sizes of 5000-14000, our simulation results indicate that using a stratified random design to collect 30-40 urine samples from 80-100 sheets, each with an area of 0.75-1m2, would provide sufficient estimation of true prevalence with minimum sampling bias and false negatives. However, acknowledging the general problem of data aggregation, we emphasize that robust inference of true prevalence from field data require information of underpinning roost sizes. Our findings refine our understanding of the underroost sampling technique with the aim of increasing its specificity, and suggest that the method be further developed as an efficient non-invasive sampling technique that provides roost-level estimates of viral prevalence within a bat population.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Phylogenetic factorization of mammalian viruses complements trait-based analyses and guides surveillance efforts

Predicting which novel microorganisms may spill over from animals to humans has become a major priority in infectious disease biology. However, there are few tools to help assess the zoonotic potential of the enormous number of potential pathogens, the majority of which are undiscovered or unclassified and may be unlikely to infect or cause disease in humans. We adapt a new biological machine learning technique - phylofactorization - to partition viruses into clades based on their non-human host range and whether or not there exist evidence they have infected humans. Our cladistic analyses identify clades of viruses with common within-clade patterns - unusually high or low propensity for spillover. Phylofactorization by spillover yields many clades of viruses containing few to no representatives that have spilled over to humans, including the families Papillomaviridae and Herpesviridae, and the genus Parvovirus. Removal of these non-zoonotic clades from previous trait-based analyses changed the relative significance of traits determining spillover due to strong associations of traits with non-zoonotic clades. Phylofactorization by host breadth yielded clades with unusually high host breadth, including the family Togaviridae. We identify putative life-history traits differentiating clades host breadth and propensities for zoonosis, and discuss how these results can prioritize sequencing-based surveillance of emerging infectious diseases.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Phylofactorization - a graph partitioning algorithm to identify phylogenetic scales of ecological data

The problem of pattern and scale is a central challenge in ecology. The problem of scale is central to community ecology, where functional ecological groups are aggregated and treated as a unit underlying an ecological pattern, such as aggregation of \"nitrogen fixing trees\" into a total abundance of a trait underlying ecosystem physiology. With the emergence of massive community ecological datasets, from microbiomes to breeding bird surveys, there is a need to objectively identify the scales of organization pertaining to well-defined patterns in community ecological data.\n\nThe phylogeny is a scaffold for identifying key phylogenetic scales associated with macroscopic patterns. Phylofactorization was developed to objectively identify phylogenetic scales underlying patterns in relative abundance data. However, many ecological data, such as presence-absences and counts, are not relative abundances, yet it is still desireable and informative to identify phylogenetic scales underlying a pattern of interest. Here, we generalize phylofactorization beyond relative abundances to a graph-partitioning algorithm for any community ecological data.\n\nGeneralizing phylofactorization connects many tools from data analysis to phylogenetically-informe analysis of community ecological data. Two-sample tests identify three phylogenetic factors of mammalian body mass which arose during the K-Pg extinction event, consistent with other analyses of mammalian body mass evolution. Projection of data onto coordinates defined by the phylogeny yield a phylogenetic principal components analysis which refines our understanding of the major sources of variation in the human gut microbiome. These same coordinates allow generalized additive modeling of microbes in Central Park soils and confirm that a large clade of Acidobacteria thrive in neutral soils. Generalized linear and additive modeling of exponential family random variables can be performed by phylogenetically-constrained reduced-rank regression or stepwise factor contrasts. We finish with a discussion of how phylofac-torization produces an ecological species concept with a phylogenetic constraint. All of these tools can be implemented with a new R package available online.

ecology↗