Biology subjects

Pincheira-Donoso, D.

Publications and source records attributed to Pincheira-Donoso, D..

8 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Evolutionary dynamics of temporal niche among tetrapods

The diversification of biodiversity progresses as newly evolving species adapt to occupy available niche space - including the temporal dimension. Throughout the history of life, animal species adapted to occupy specific regions, or all regions (cathemerality), of the day-night temporal spectrum. While adaptive radiation theory is predicted to drive much of the global proliferation of biodiversity, the role that the day-night temporal dimension plays in offering ecological opportunity for lineages to diversify remains fundamentally neglected. Using a dataset spanning 19,940 species from across all four main tetrapod lineages (amphibians, squamates (restricted to lizards), mammals and archosaurs), we perform the very first evolutionarily standardised temporal niche diversification analysis and the first to include substantial number of ectotherms. We examine temporal niche as a source of ecological opportunity for adaptive radiation and contrast how lineages have leveraged ecological opportunity spread across 24h time. Findings revealed that tetrapods most frequently transitioned towards diurnality, suggesting a general opening of ecological opportunity in diurnal niche space since the K-Pg mass extinction. Moreover, amphibians are faster and more flexible than amniotes in temporal niche evolution, supported by a relatively higher speed of temporal niche transition and by spending relatively more in time cathemerality, potentially compensating for limitations in geographic dispersal. This interpretation suggests the day-night temporal niche dimension interacts with the geographic dimension, as it exhibits processes which unfold in parallel to (independent of) the geographic dimension as well as processes which unfold in response to what occurs in the geographic dimension.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

'Occam's bias' undermines inferences from phylogenetic linear models

Phylogenetic modelling has consolidated as the analytical standard to address hypotheses about the patterns and dynamics of biodiversity in inter-specific contexts. These analyses are traditionally performed implementing phylogenetic linear models where single outcomes are regressed against multiple predictors without explicitly modelling the relationships amongst predictors. A prevailing, yet largely overlooked consequence of neglecting these relationships is what we introduce as Occams bias - a statistical distortion arising where the model has fewer cause-effect connections than predicted by theory. Here, we propose that Occams bias is likely to have impacted a wide range of inferences about ecological and evolutionary processes made from phylogenetic linear models across the literature, and thus, that the adoption of approaches to address this bias are critical. We present an empirical test of the long-standing hypothesis that interspecific variation in life-history traits influences the likelihood of extinction risk across 13,949 species of terrestrial vertebrates to show the impacts of Occams bias in phenomenological inference. Our study calls for a re-evaluation of hypotheses tested using the traditional linear modelling structure and advocate the use and continued development of multi-response model structures that account for all causal pathways in phylogenetic analyses.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Temporal niche influences higher extinction risk among diurnal tetrapods from tropical regions

Anthropocene extinctions of biodiversity vary dramatically through geographic and phylogenetic space, with certain regions and lineages concentrating high defaunation rates, while others remain nearly unchanged.This heterogeneity in biodiversity erosion results from (spatial and phylogenetic) variation in the interactions between species fitness-relevant traits and environmental threats that trigger extinctions. Evidence reveals that factors including life histories, ecophysiology, and resource-use generalism influence variation in species declines under rapidly changing environments. An emerging hypothesis predicts that species spread across different locations of the 24h diel spectrum are exposed to different anthropogenic pressures on demographic stability (e.g. daytime contact with humans), which can trigger differential extinction risk among diurnal, nocturnal and cathemeral (day-night active) species. However, this hypothesis remains largely neglected. Only a single large-scale test exists, which documented higher declines among diurnal mammals. Here, we address this hypothesis across tetrapods globally, spanning >23,000 species across both endotherms and ectotherms for the first time. Our results reveal that cathemerality is significantly associated with a lower probability of undergoing population declines across tetrapods (except birds), while diurnality is associated with higher extinction risk category in amphibians. Collectively, our results suggest that the role of temporal niche in extinction is significant but variable across tetrapods.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Global assessment of interventions for mitigation of amphibian fungal disease is dominated by geoeconomic trends and antifungal success

Globalisation networks--a rapidly expanding factor behind Anthropocene environmental erosion--facilitate the accelerating spread of invasive species and diseases globally. Among wildlife infectious diseases, chytridiomycosis (caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, or Bd) has been widely implicated with the alarming global decline of amphibians-- natures most endangered organisms. Over the last few decades, a range of interventions have been tested to mitigate the annihilating impacts of Bd on amphibian communities, with high disparity in success. However, no integrative quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of interventions exists, thus hindering a broader understanding about where actions and further research should be directed. Using a novel, globally comprehensive database of interventions, we show that antifungal treatments of itraconazole applied to individual tadpoles seem offer the best results compared to other interventions. Further, trials performed ex situ, predominantly applied in the Global North, may severely bias the ability to assess the effectiveness of treatments applied in more biodiverse areas, across species that have been most severely affected. Our study is a call to continue experimentation on promising novel methods and to expand the geographic and taxonomic deployment of interventions to approach a robust evidence-based understanding of the effectiveness of treatments.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Predicting the global economic costs of biological invasions by tetrapods

Globalisation has steadily accelerated rates of biological invasions worldwide, leading to widespread environmental perturbations that often translate into rapidly expanding socioeconomic costs. Although such monetary costs can be estimated based on the observed effects of invasions, the pathways that lead invasive species to become economically impactful remain poorly understood. Here, we implement the first global-scale test of the hypothesis that adaptive traits that influence demographic resilience predict economic costs, using invasive terrestrial vertebrates as models given their rising impacts and well-catalogued characteristics. Our results reveal that total global costs of invasive tetrapods are conservatively in the tens of billions of dollars, with the vast majority due to damage costs from invasive mammals. These monetary impacts are predicted by longevity, female maturation age, diet and invasional pathway traits, although the directionality of predicted economic impacts also varied by trait across classes. Alarmingly, costs remain unknown for >90% of recorded established alien tetrapods worldwide, and across the majority of invaded countries. These huge socio-economic costs demonstrate the necessity of mitigating tetrapod invasions and filling knowledge gaps. Effective identification of traits predictive of costs among and within these groups can facilitate the prioritisation of resources to efficiently target the most damaging existing and emerging invasive tetrapod species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Generation length of the world's amphibians and reptiles

Variation in life histories influences demographic processes from adaptive changes to population declines leading to extinction. Among life history traits, generation length offers a critical feature to forecast species demographic trajectories such as population declines (widely used by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species) and adaptability to environmental change over time. Therefore, estimates of generation length are crucial to monitor demographic stability or future change in highly threatened organisms, particularly ectothermic tetrapods (amphibians and reptiles) - which rank among the most threatened groups - but for which uncertainty in future impacts remains high. Despite its importance, generation length for amphibians and reptiles is largely missing. Here, we aimed to fill-in this gap by modeling generation lengths for amphibians, squamates and testudines as a function of species size, climate, life history, and phylogeny using generalized additive models and phylogenetic generalized least squares. We obtained estimates of generation lengths for 4,543 (52%) amphibians, 8,464 (72%) squamates and 118 (32%) testudines. Our models performed well for most families, for example Bufonidae in amphibians, Lacertidae and Colubridae in squamates and Geoemydidae in testudines, while we found high uncertainty around the prediction of a few families, notably Chamaeleonidae. Species body size and mean temperature were the main predictors of generation length in all groups. Although our estimates are not meant to substitute robust and validated measurements from field studies or natural history museums, they can help reduce existing biases in conservation assessments until field data will be comprehensively available.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2022

Temporal and spatial patterns of vertebrate extinctions during the Anthropocene

The human-induced annihilation of modern biodiversity is dragging the planet into a mass extinction that has already altered patterns of life globally. Among vertebrates, over 500 species have become extinct or possibly extinct in the last five centuries - an extinction rate that would have taken several millennia without human intervention. Vertebrate extinctions have often been quantified as cumulative counts that reveal sharp increases in losses over time. Here, we quantify global tetrapod extinctions since the 1400s using numbers of species losses across successive and independent time periods until present. Our results reveal that extinctions were low and fundamentally restricted to islands in pre-industrial times, experiencing a significant increase and spread over continental mainland following the onset of the industrial revolution. Recent amphibian extinctions alarmingly exceed the extinctions of all tetrapods, while extinctions of island birds account for a third of all extinctions. Finally, we quantified the relationship between human population growth (HPG, as a proxy for aggregate human effects on the environment) and extinctions between 1800-2000, to then predict that an estimated 838 tetrapod species will go extinct between 2030-2100 based on United Nations HPG projections. These findings further warn humanity about the need to sustainably control HPG and the destructive impacts of rapid environmental change on ecosystems worldwide.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Mangrove forests mitigate coral bleaching under thermal stress from climate change

Anthropogenic marine heatwaves are progressively degrading coral reef ecosystems worldwide via the process of coral bleaching (the expulsion of photosynthetic endosymbionts which reveals the coral skeleton). Corals from mangrove lagoons are hypothesised to increase resistance and resilience to coral bleaching, highlighting these areas as potential natural refuges for corals. Our study, the first conducted at a global-scale, reveals that coral reefs associated with mangrove forests are less likely to bleach under thermal stress, and thus, under scenarios of climate warming. The onset of severe bleaching occurred after 3.6 Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) in mangrove-associated reefs, compared to 2.23 DHW for non-mangrove associated reefs. These findings highlight the critical role of mangrove forests for coral reef persistence under climate change. Accordingly, conservation actions targeting the protection of mangroves are expected to contribute to the resilience and resistance of reef corals from bleaching as marine heatwaves continue to become more common.

ecology↗