Co-circulating mumps lineages at multiple geographic scales
Despite widespread vaccination, eleven thousand mumps cases were reported in the United States (US) in 2016-17, including hundreds in Massachusetts, primarily in college settings. We generated 203 whole genome mumps virus (MuV) sequences from Massachusetts and 15 other states to understand the dynamics of mumps spread locally and nationally, as well as to search for variants potentially related to vaccination. We observed multiple MuV lineages circulating within Massachusetts during 2016-17, evidence for multiple introductions of the virus to the state, and extensive geographic movement of MuV within the US on short time scales. We found no evidence that variants arising during this outbreak contributed to vaccine escape. Combining epidemiological and genomic data, we observed multiple co-circulating clades within individual universities as well as spillover into the local community. Detailed data from one well-sampled university allowed us to estimate an effective reproductive number within that university significantly greater than one. We also used publicly available small hydrophobic (SH) gene sequences to estimate migration between world regions and to place this outbreak in a global context, but demonstrate that these short sequences, historically used for MuV genotyping, are inadequate for tracing detailed transmission. Our findings suggest continuous, often undetected, circulation of mumps both locally and nationally, and highlight the value of combining genomic and epidemiological data to track viral disease transmission at high resolution.