Petrovskii, S. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

Humans could become the greatest driver of biosphere net gain in Earth history, but we are currently the second fastest driver of biosphere loss

Human activity is transforming the shape, size, and resilience of Earths biosphere, degrading and augmenting Holocene baseline conditions at various scales, and replacing the wild biosphere with an anthropogenically modified one. We evaluate episodes of biosphere change throughout Earth history and compare them with contemporary and near-future anthropogenic changes, developing the concept of biosphere disruptors - agents that force global-scale macroevolutionary change. Transient disruptors are short-lived agents (mean 8.0x105 years), including massive volcanism and asteroid impacts. Persistent disruptors, including atmospheric and ocean oxygenation and land plant evolution, remain in the Earth System over long timescales (mean 1.6x108 years). In the geological record, transient disruptors are associated with temporary but sometimes massive biosphere degradation, whereas persistent disruptors are associated with sustained biosphere enhancement. Most anthropogenic biosphere impacts resemble those of past transient disruptors, globally degrading wild biomass and biodiversity. Humanity is driving the second highest rate of biosphere degradation in Earth history after the Cretaceous-Palaeogene bolide impact. However, humanity is the first disrupting agent capable of reflecting on and potentially transforming its impact on planetary habitability. If we can achieve this, humanity could drive the greatest rate of increase in planetary habitability in Earth history on centennial to millennial timescales.

paleontology↗

bioRxiv2021

Effects of stochasticity on the length and behaviour of ecological transients

There is a growing recognition that ecological systems can spend extended periods of time far away from an asymptotic state, and that ecological understanding will therefore require a deeper appreciation for how long ecological transients arise. Recent work has defined classes of deterministic mechanisms that can lead to long transients. Given the ubiquity of stochasticity in ecological systems, a similar systematic treatment of transients that includes the influence of stochasticity is important. Stochasticity can of course promote the appearance of transient dynamics by preventing systems from settling permanently near their asymptotic state, but stochasticity also interacts with deterministic features to create qualitatively new dynamics. As such, stochasticity may shorten, extend, or fundamentally change a systems transient dynamics. Here, we describe a general framework that is developing for understanding the range of possible outcomes when random processes impact the dynamics of ecological systems over realistic time scales. We emphasize that we can understand the ways in which stochasticity can either extend or reduce the lifetime of transients by studying the interactions between the stochastic and deterministic processes present, and we summarize both the current state of knowledge and avenues for future advances.

ecology↗