Pethiyagoda, R. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2022

Climatic niche evolution of infectious diseases driving amphibian declines

Climate change and infectious diseases continue to drive global amphibian population declines, contributing to one of the greatest vertebrate extinctions of the Anthropocene. Currently around 16% amphibian species across the world are affected by four pathogens - Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), B. salamandrivorans (Bsal), Ranavirus and Perkinsea. A climatic context behind the dispersal of some of these diseases is hypothesized. However, the interplay between niche conservatism (NC) and climatic niche evolution (CNE), essential to understand disease evolution and dispersal, has so far received little attention. Here we show that the impacts of amphibian pathogens are intensifying as their climatic niches evolve. NC-based analyses suggest that niches of these diseases overlap, especially in Europe and East/southeast Asia (ESEA), and that all four pathogens will continue to devastate amphibians through seasonality shifts and range expansions, penetrating deeper into temperate regions and global amphibian diversity hotspots. Bd will spread over diversity-rich mountain ranges and ranaviruses will overwhelm lowlands. CNE-based analyses suggest that the earliest lineages of these diseases originated in colder regions and that some lineages subsequently evolved towards warmer climatic niches. We caution that quiescent, warm-adapted strains are likely to become widespread and novel ranaviruses adapted to local climatic conditions and new hosts are likely to emerge. These results portend the dangers of introducing pathogens into new regions given their ability to adapt to changing climate scenarios. In a climatic background conducive to most of these diseases, frequent monitoring, enhanced biosecurity measures and policy reforms are needed for disease control and mitigation.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Drivers of an epic radiation: the role of climate and islands in species diversification and reproductive-mode evolution of Old-World tree frogs

Although large diversifications of species occur unevenly across space and evolutionary lineages, the relative importance of their driving mechanisms, such as climate, ecological opportunity and key innovations, remains poorly understood. Here, we explore the remarkable diversification of rhacophorid frogs, which represent six percent of global amphibian diversity, utilize four distinct reproductive modes, and span a climatically variable area across mainland Asia, associated continental islands, and Africa. Using a complete species-level phylogeny, we find near-constant diversification rates but a highly uneven distribution of species richness. Montane regions on islands and some mainland regions have higher phylogenetic diversity and unique assemblages of taxa; we identify these as cool-wet refugia. Starting from a centre of origin, rhacophorids reached these distant refugia by adapting to new climatic conditions ( niche evolution-dominant), especially following the origin of key innovations such as terrestrial reproduction (in the Late Eocene) or by dispersal during periods of favourable climate ( niche conservatism-dominant).

evolutionary biology↗