Biology subjects

Peter Kraft

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Kraft.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2016

Playing Musical Chairs in Big Data to Reveal Variables Associations

Testing for associations in big data faces the problem of multiple comparisons, with true signals buried inside the noise of all associations queried. This is particularly true in genetic association studies where a substantial proportion of the variation of human phenotypes is driven by numerous genetic variants of small effect. The current strategy to improve power to identify these weak associations consists of applying standard marginal statistical approaches and increasing study sample sizes. While successful, this approach does not leverage the environmental and genetic factors shared between the multiple phenotypes collected in contemporary cohorts. Here we develop a method that improves the power of detecting associations when a large number of correlated variables have been measured on the same samples. Our analyses over real and simulated data provide direct support that large sets of correlated variables can be leveraged to achieve dramatic increases in statistical power equivalent to a two or even three folds increase in sample size.

Genetics↗

bioRxiv2016

Improved methods for multi-trait fine mapping of pleiotropic risk loci

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of regions in the genome that contain genetic variants that increase risk for complex traits and diseases. However, the variants uncovered in GWAS are typically not biologicaly causal, but rather, correlated to the true causal variant through linkage disequilibrium (LD). To discern the true causal variant(s), a variety of statistical fine-mapping methods have been proposed to prioritize variants for functional validation. In this work we introduce a new approach, fastPAINTOR, that leverages evidence across correlated traits, as well as functional annotation data, to improve fine-mapping accuracy at pleiotropic risk loci. To improve computational efficiency, we describe an new importance sampling scheme to perform model inference. First, we demonstrate in simulations that by leveraging functional annotation data, fastPAINTOR increases fine-mapping resolution relative to existing methods. Next, we show that jointly modeling pleiotropic risk regions improves fine-mapping resolution relative to standard single trait and pleiotropic fine mapping strategies. We report a reduction in the number of SNPs required for follow-up in order to capture 90% of the causal variants from 23 SNPs per locus using a single trait to 12 SNPs when fine-mapping two traits simultaneously. Finally, we analyze summary association data from a large-scale GWAS of lipids and show that these improvements are largely sustained in real data.

Genetics↗

bioRxiv2015

Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk, and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves LD-pruning markers and applying a P-value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and may reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce a new method, LDpred, which infers the posterior mean causal effect size of each marker using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the pruning/thresholding approach, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, prediction R2 increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia data set and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis data set. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease data sets and when predicting in non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase.

Bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2014

Explicit modeling of ancestry improves polygenic risk scores and BLUP prediction

Polygenic prediction using genome-wide SNPs can provide high prediction accuracy for complex traits. Here, we investigate the question of how to account for genetic ancestry when conducting polygenic prediction. We show that the accuracy of polygenic prediction in structured populations may be partly due to genetic ancestry. However, we hypothesized that explicitly modeling ancestry could improve polygenic prediction accuracy. We analyzed three GWAS of hair color, tanning ability and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in European Americans (sample size from 7,440 to 9,822) and considered two widely used polygenic prediction approaches: polygenic risk scores (PRS) and Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP). We compared polygenic prediction without correction for ancestry to polygenic prediction with ancestry as a separate component in the model. In 10-fold cross-validation using the PRS approach, the R2 for hair color increased by 66% (0.0456 to 0.0755; p<10-16), the R2 for tanning ability increased by % (0.0154 to 0.0344; p<10-16) and the liability-scale R2 for BCC increased by 68% (0.0138 to 0.0232; p<10-16) when explicitly modeling ancestry, which prevents ancestry effects from entering into each SNP effect and being over-weighted. Surprisingly, explicitly modeling ancestry produces a similar improvement when using the BLUP approach, which fits all SNPs simultaneously in a single variance component and causes ancestry to be under-weighted. We validate our findings via simulations, which show that the differences in prediction accuracy will increase in magnitude as sample sizes increase. In summary, our results show that explicitly modeling ancestry can be important in both PRS and BLUP prediction.

Genetics↗