Biology subjects

Pepi, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Pepi, A..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Hilltopping influences spatial dynamics in a patchy population of tiger moths

Dispersal is a key driver of spatial population dynamics. Dispersal behavior may be shaped by many factors, such as mate-finding, the spatial distribution of resources, or wind and currents, yet most models of spatial dynamics assume random dispersal. We examined the spatial dynamics of a day-flying moth species (Arctia virginalis) that forms mating aggregations on hilltops ( hilltopping) based on long-term adult and larval population censuses. Using time-series models, we compared spatial population dynamics resulting from empirically-founded hilltop-based connectivity indices, and modeled the interactive effects of temperature, precipitation, and density dependence. Model comparisons supported hilltop-based connectivity metrics over random connectivity, suggesting an effect of hilltopping behavior on dynamics. We also found strong interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on dynamics. Simulations based on fitted time series models showed lower patch occupancy and regional synchrony, and higher colonization and extinction rates when hilltopping was included, with potential implications for the probability of persistence of the patch network. Overall, our results show the potential for dispersal behavior to have important effects on spatial population dynamics and persistence, and we advocate inclusion of such non-random dispersal in metapopulation models.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Thermal asymmetries influence effects of warming on stage and size-dependent predator-prey interactions

Climate warming directly influences the developmental and feeding rates of organisms. Changes in these rates are likely to have consequences for species interactions, particularly for organisms affected by stage- or size-dependent predation. However, because of differences in species-specific responses to warming, predicting the impact of warming on predator and prey densities can be difficult. We present a general model of stage-dependent predation with temperature-dependent vital rates to explore the effects of warming when predator and prey have different thermal optima. We found that warming generally favored the interactor with the higher thermal optimum. Part of this effect occurred due to the stage-dependent nature of the interaction, and part due to thermal asymmetries. Furthermore, large differences in thermal optima between predators and prey (i.e., a high degree of asymmetry) led to a weaker interaction. Interestingly, below the predator and prey thermal optima, warming caused prey densities to decline, even as increasing temperature improved prey performance. We also parameterize our model using values from a well-studied system, Arctia virginalis and Formica lasioides, in which the predator has a warmer optimum. Overall, our results provide a general framework for understanding stage- and temperature-dependent predator-prey interactions, and illustrate that the thermal niche of both predator and prey are important to consider when predicting the effects of climate warming.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Influence of delayed density and ultraviolet radiation on caterpillar granulovirus infection and mortality

O_LIInfectious disease is an important potential driver of population cycles, but this must occur through delayed density-dependent infection and resulting fitness effects. Delayed density-dependent infection by baculoviruses can be caused by environmental persistence of viral occlusion bodies, which can be influenced by environmental factors. In particular, ultraviolet radiation is potentially important in reducing the environmental persistence of viruses by inactivating viral occlusion bodies. C_LIO_LIDelayed density-dependent viral infection has rarely been observed empirically at the population level although theory predicts that it is necessary for these pathogens to drive population cycles. Similarly, field studies have not examined the potential effects of ultraviolet radiation on viral infection rates in natural animal populations. We tested if viral infection is delayed density-dependent with the potential to drive cyclic dynamics and if ultraviolet radiation influences viral infection levels. C_LIO_LIWe censused 18 Ranchmans tiger moth (Arctia virginalis) populations across nearly 9{degrees} of latitude over two years and quantified the effects of direct and delayed density and ultraviolet radiation on baculovirus infection rates, infection severity, and survival to adulthood. Caterpillars were collected from each population in the field and reared in the laboratory. Baculovirus has not previously been described infecting Arctia virginalis, and we used genetic methods to confirm the identity of the virus. C_LIO_LIWe found that infection rate, infection severity, and survival to adulthood exhibited delayed density-dependence. Ultraviolet radiation in the previous summer decreased infection severity, and increased survival probability of the virus. Structural equation modelling indicated that the effect of lagged density on moth survival was mediated through infection rate and infection severity, and was 2.5 fold stronger than the effect of ultraviolet radiation on survival through infection severity. We successfully amplified polh, lef-8, and lef-9 viral genes from caterpillar samples, and BLAST search results confirmed that the virus was a nucleopolyhedrovirus. C_LIO_LIOur findings provide clear evidence that delayed density dependence can arise through viral infection rate and severity in insects, which supports the role of viral disease as a potential mechanism, among others, that may drive insect population cycles. Furthermore, our findings support predictions that ultraviolet radiation can modify viral disease dynamics in insect populations, most likely through attenuating viral persistence in the environment. C_LI

ecology↗