Biology subjects

Pekar, J. E.

Publications and source records attributed to Pekar, J. E..

6 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Dairy cattle movement networks govern the spread and persistence of H5N1 B3.13 in the United States

Avian influenza virus H5N1 is predominantly found in wild and domestic birds. H5N1 genotype B3.13 was first detected in United States dairy cattle in March 2024 and spread through much of the country during 2024 and 2025, resulting in the largest known H5N1 outbreak in domestic mammals. By analysing viral genomic data jointly with historical cattle movement patterns, we find that live cattle movement is the predominant contributor to H5N1 spatial spread, rather than wild or domestic birds. Using phylogeographic methods we estimate that >40% of interstate viral transmissions occurred before B3.13's first detection and >70% occurred before interstate dairy cattle movement restrictions were implemented in April 2024. After this implementation, interstate transmission slowed but within-state spread persisted, driven by local cattle network density and movement volume. Our epidemic simulations demonstrate that the connectivity of counties within and around the Texas Panhandle - where the earliest cases were documented - predisposed the region to become an outbreak epicentre. Counterfactual simulations indicate that interstate restrictions needed to have begun 2-3 months earlier in order to limit the epizootic substantively, given the extent of cryptic spread before detection. Network-informed interventions outperformed geographically-defined containment, but response speed (rather than intervention strength) was the limiting factor in our epidemic models, underscoring the need for surveillance systems capable of detecting pathogen emergence before widespread dissemination.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Bovine H5N1 influenza viruses have adapted to more efficiently use receptors abundant in cattle

Sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission of high pathogenicity H5N1 avian influenza viruses is reshaping the host range of these pathogens. One of the longest-running mammalian transmission chains involves the B3.13 genotype circulating in U.S. dairy cattle which was detected in early 2024. Genomic analyses revealed selection and rapid fixation of haemagglutinin mutations D104G and V147M. We demonstate, via glycomic profiling, that bovine tissues, including the mammary gland, are enriched in N- and O-linked glycans capped with N-glycolylneuraminic acid (NeuGc), a sialic acid absent in humans and birds, which instead express only N-acetylneuraminic acid (NeuAc). Early cattle H5 viruses poorly recognized NeuGc, but D104G and V147M enabled efficient engagement of both NeuAc- and NeuGc-containing receptors. These mutations enhanced replication in bovine mammary tissue without major attenuation of replication in human lung and primary nasal epithelial cells. NeuGc-driven receptor adaptation therefore promotes viral fitness in cattle while potentially limiting immediate zoonotic risk. Deep mutational scanning further identified alternative haemagglutinin substitutions that confer NeuGc usage and represent surveillance markers for emerging cattle H5 lineages.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

The emergence and molecular evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in United States dairy cattle

Prior to 2024, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses circulated predominantly in wild birds and poultry. In 2024 and 2025, 2.3.4.4b genotypes B3.13 and D1.1 were detected in United States dairy cattle. Using whole-genome and segment-specific phylodynamic inference, we estimate that B3.13 and D1.1 spilled over from wild birds into dairy cattle in late 2023 and late 2024, respectively. Spillover occurred shortly after the formation of the reassortant genotypes and was followed by months of cryptic transmission prior to detection. We found that both B3.13 and D1.1 evolved at higher rates in cattle relative to birds, primarily due to relaxed purifying selection. Site-specific analyses identified genomic sites under positive selection in cattle relative to birds, indicating adaptation and likely contributing to improved viral fitness after spillover. Intensified genomic surveillance in dairy cattle is essential as population immunity introduces additional selection pressures, with ever-changing risk for human emergence.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Delphy: scalable, near-real-time Bayesian phylogenetics for outbreaks

Pathogen genomic analysis is central to tracking, understanding, and containing outbreaks, but complexity and high costs of state-of-the-art (SOTA) phylogenetic tools limit global access and impact. We introduce Delphy, an exact reformulation of Bayesian phylogenetics designed to transform its speed, scalability and accessibility while retaining SOTA accuracy. Delphys central data structure, an Explicit Mutation Annotated Tree, exploits the high sequence similarity in large-scale epidemic datasets for efficient tree exploration and convergence. By reproducing key analyses from recent major epidemics (Ebola, Zika, SARS-CoV-2, mpox, and H5N1), we demonstrate SOTA accuracy with up to 1,000x speedups. Assessing Delphys scalability, we show that a simulated dataset of 100,000 sequences can be analyzed in under a day-the largest such computation to date. We distribute Delphy as a client-side web application, enabling users worldwide to turn raw data into interactive results within minutes, without the data ever leaving the users machine. Delphy automatically identifies key viral lineages and mutations, as well as their emergence and prevalence through time, all with quantified uncertainties derived from a solid theoretical foundation. Delphy shows the power of Bayesian phylogenetics as a fast, accessible frontline tool for tackling future outbreaks.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2025

Dynamics of natural selection preceding human viral epidemics and pandemics.

Using a phylogenetic framework to characterize natural selection, we investigate the hypothesis that zoonotic viruses require adaptation prior to zoonosis to sustain human-to-human transmission. Examining the zoonotic emergence of Ebola virus, Marburg virus, influenza A virus, SARS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2, we find no evidence of a change in the intensity of natural selection immediately prior to a host switch, compared with typical selection within reservoir hosts. We conclude that extensive pre-zoonotic adaptation is not necessary for human-to-human transmission of zoonotic viruses. In contrast, the reemergence of H1N1 influenza A virus in 1977 showed a change in selection, consistent with the hypothesis of passage in a laboratory setting prior to its reintroduction into the human population, purportedly during a vaccine trial. Holistic phylogenetic analysis of selection regimes can be used to detect evolutionary signals of host switching or laboratory passage, providing insight into the circumstances of past and future viral emergence.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 has led to increased sampling of related sarbecoviruses circulating primarily in horseshoe bats. These viruses undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatial structuring across Asia. Employing recombination-aware phylogenetic inference on bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed just [~]1-3 years prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses examining the movement of related sarbecoviruses demonstrate that they traveled at similar rates to their horseshoe bat hosts and have been circulating for thousands of years in Asia. The closest-inferred bat virus ancestor of SARS-CoV likely circulated in western China, and that of SARS-CoV-2 likely circulated in a region comprising southwest China and northern Laos, both a substantial distance from where they emerged. This distance and recency indicate that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 could not have reached their respective sites of emergence via the bat reservoir alone. Our recombination-aware dating and phylogeographic analyses reveal a more accurate inference of evolutionary history than performing only whole-genome or single gene analyses. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic fragments extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.

evolutionary biology↗