A tumor-cell MHC-II program is associated with checkpoint-blockade outcomes across stages of bladder cancer
Purpose: A minority of patients with bladder cancer derive lasting benefit from immunotherapy, and current biomarkers capture only part of the biology. We evaluated whether tumor-cell MHC class II defines an immune state associated with outcome across disease stages and after PD-1/PD-L1 blockade. Experimental Design: We localized differential MHC-II activity to malignant epithelial cells by single-nucleus and single-cell RNA sequencing and confirmed HLA-DR expression by immunohistochemistry in 122 specimens. Chromatin profiling and IFN-{gamma} stimulation of cell lines and primary tumors supported derivation of an 11-gene tumor-cell program. Associations were tested in 434 patients with non-muscle-invasive disease, 82 receiving neoadjuvant pembrolizumab, and 288 receiving atezolizumab for metastatic disease. Results: Tumor-cell MHC-II was present in approximately one third of bladder cancers, and malignant cells accounted for the differential signal between MHC-II-high and MHC-II-low tumors. The program was inducible by IFN-{gamma} through JAK/STAT signaling. Within luminal non-muscle-invasive disease, MHC-II-low status was associated with progression (HR 3.31, 95% CI 1.37 to 7.99). In PURE-01, the 11-gene program was associated with pathological complete response (52% versus 24%, p = 0.018) and recurrence-free survival (p = 0.0054), retaining an independent association in models including tumor mutational burden and PD-L1. In bladder-primary metastatic disease, program-high status was associated with overall survival in unadjusted analysis (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.89); the association did not extend to upper tract tumors (interaction p = 0.0018). Conclusions: Tumor-cell MHC-II defines an inducible state associated with outcomes across bladder cancer stages and after checkpoint blockade, supporting prospective evaluation by RNA and immunohistochemistry.