Search bioRxiv⌕ Search

Biology subjects

Osorio-Olvera, L.

Publications and source records attributed to Osorio-Olvera, L..

8 recordsLinked to original sources
bioRxiv2025

Pollinators in Mexico. Spatial patterns show exceptions to global trends

Pollinators are declining globally, yet their biodiversity patterns in megadiverse regions remain unclear. We analyzed four major pollinator groups across one of the worlds most diverse regions -Mexico and adjacent areas. Using species distribution models, we generated presence- absence matrices (1,135 species in 165,078 grid cells) and applied range-diversity plots with a new randomization approach, to explore richness and endemism. Results reveal sharp contrasts: hummingbirds, bats, hawkmoths, and some bee families show the expected tropical richness peak, whereas other bees peak in arid lands of northern Mexico and the southwestern US. Endemism also diverges, with vertebrates concentrated in the tropics and bees in deserts. These findings challenge assumptions of uniform pollinator diversity patterns and demonstrate that conservation cannot rely on one-size-fits-all solutions. Our framework offers spatial tools to identify biodiversity structure and inform conservation and policy in the face of land-use change, agrochemicals, invasive species, and climate pressures.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Can upwelling regions be potential thermal refugia for marine species during climate warming? The case of Mexico

Anthropogenic climate warming will change the thermal habitats of marine species worldwide. Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies since behavioral and physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under a specific range of temperatures. However, given the possible intensification of upwelling ecosystems, they may act as potential thermal refugia under climate warming, which could protect the diversity of the marine ecosystems, making them important regions for marine resource management. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial marine species (vertebrate and invertebrates) reported in official Mexican documents (> 300 species) based on a thermal niche characterization with the objective to observe if the upwelling regions can act as potential thermal refugia. For this, we considered Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios for the present and the future (2040-2050 and 2090-2100). Current and future patterns of suitability, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated via ecological niche models using the minimum volume ellipsoids as an algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, some upwelling regions (not all) could be potentially used as some type of "oasis" by marine species refuging from environmental pressure or zones of higher stability of species. Specifically, the upwelling systems in western Baja California and north of Yucatan may be essential regions for future management in Mexico. Nevertheless, it is important to note that climate change acts on numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. Future research could test our hypothesis under more realistic simulations. However, migration toward upwelling regions seems to be the most logical selection from all the available ecosystems as climate refugia for marine species beyond movement to higher latitudes or depths.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2021

Complex genetic patterns and distribution limits mediated by native congeners of the worldwide invasive red-eared slider turtle

Non-native (invasive) species offer a unique opportunity to study the geographic distribution and range limits of species, wherein the evolutionary change driven by interspecific interactions between native and non-native closely related species is a key component. The red-eared slider turtle, Trachemys scripta elegans (TSE), has been introduced and successfully established worldwide. It can coexist with its native congeners T. cataspila, T. venusta and T. taylori in Mexico. We performed comprehensive fieldwork, executed a battery of genetic analyses and applied a novel species distribution modeling approach to evaluate their historical lineage relationships and contemporary population genetic patterns. Our findings support the historical common ancestry between native TSE and non-native (TSEalien), while also highlighting the genetic differentiation of the exotic lineage. Genetic patterns are associated with their range size/endemism gradient, the microendemic T. taylori showed significant reduced genetic diversity and high differentiation, whereas TSEalien showed the highest diversity and signals of population size expansion. Counter to our expectations, lower naturally occurring distribution overlap and little admixture patterns were found between and its congeners, exhibiting reduced gene flow and clear genetic separation across neighboring species despite having zones of contact. We demonstrate that these native Trachemys species have distinct climatic niche suitability, likely preventing establishment of and displacement by the non-native TSE. Additionally, we found major niche overlap between TSEalien and native species worldwide, supporting our prediction that sites with closer ecological optima to the invasive species have higher establishment risk than those that are closer to the niche-center of the native species.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2021

Effects of climatic change on the potential distribution of Lycoriella species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of economic importance

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g. mushrooms, strawberry, and nurseries). Current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under climate change future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in distributions of these species of Lycoriella. Stable suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted for key countries (e.g. USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

bioinformatics↗
bioRxiv2020

Geographic potential of the world largest hornet, Vespa mandarinia Smith (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), worldwide and particularly in North America

The Asian giant hornet (AGH, Vespa mandarinia) is the worlds largest hornet, occurring naturally in the Indomalayan region, where it is a voracious predator of pollinating insects including honey bees. In September 2019, a nest of Asian giant hornets was detected outside of Vancouver, British Columbia and in May 2020 an individual was detected nearby in Washington state, indicating that the AGH successfully overwintered in North America. Because hornets tend to spread rapidly and become pests, reliable estimates of the potential invasive range of V. mandarinia in North America are needed to assess likely human and economic impacts, and to guide future eradication attempts. Here, we assess climatic suitability for AGH in North America, and suggest that, without control, this species could establish populations across the Pacific Northwest and much of eastern North America. Predicted suitable areas for AGH in North America overlap broadly with areas where honey production is highest, as well as with species-rich areas for native bumble bees and stingless bees of the genus Melipona in Mexico, highlighting the economic and environmental necessity of controlling this nascent invasion.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2019

Assessment and representation of variability in ecological niche model predictions

Ecological niche models are popular tools used in fields such as ecology, biogeography, conservation biology, and epidemiology. These models are used commonly to produce representations of species potential distributions, which are then used to answer other research questions; for instance, where species richness is highest, where potential impacts of climate change can be anticipated, or where to expect spread of invasive species or disease vectors. Although these representations of potential distributions are variable which contributes to uncertainty in these predictions, model variability is neglected when presenting results of ecological niche model analyses. Here, we present examples of how to quantify and represent variability in models, particularly when models are transferred in space and time. To facilitate implementations of analyses of variability, we developed R functions and made them freely available. We demonstrate means of understanding how much variation exists and where this variation is manifested in geographic space. Representing model variability in geographic space gives a reference of the uncertainty in predictions, so analyzing this aspect of model outcomes must be a priority when policy is to be set or decisions taken based on these models. Our open access tools also facilitate post modeling process that otherwise could take days of manual work.

bioinformatics↗
bioRxiv2018

Assessing sustainability in North America’s ecosystems using criticality and information theory

Sustainability is a key concept in economic and policy debates. Nevertheless, it is usually treated only in a qualitative way and has eluded quantitative analysis. Here, we propose a sustainability index based on the premise that sustainable systems do not lose or gain Fisher Information over time. We test this approach using time series data from the AmeriFlux network that measures ecosystem respiration, water and energy fluxes in order to elucidate two key sustainability features: ecosystem health and stability. A novel definition of ecosystem health is developed based on the concept of criticality, which implies that if a systems fluctuations are scale invariant then the system is in a balance between robustness and adaptability. We define ecosystem stability by taking an information theory approach that measures its entropy and Fisher information. Analysis of the Ameriflux consortium big data set of ecosystem respiration time series is contrasted with land condition data. In general we find a good agreement between the sustainability index and land condition data. However, we acknowledge that the results are a preliminary test of the approach and further verification will require a multi-signal analysis. For example, high values of the sustainability index for some croplands are counter-intuitive and we interpret these results as ecosystems maintained in artificial health due to continuous human-induced inflows of matter and energy in the form of soil nutrients and control of competition, pests and disease.

ecology↗