Biology subjects

Obolski, U.

Publications and source records attributed to Obolski, U..

13 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2020

Within-host competition modulates pneumococcal antibiotic resistance in the pre-vaccination era

BackgroundAntibiotic treatment is a key tool in the fight against pneumococcal infections. However, the ongoing emergence of antibiotic resistant strains and high frequencies of antibiotic resistance of pneumococci pose a major public health challenge. How and which ecological and evolutionary mechanisms help maintain the coexistence of strains susceptible and resistant to antibiotic treatment remains largely an open question. Methods/resultsExpanding on a Streptococcus pneumoniae modelling framework, we here explore how both between- and within-host mechanisms of transmission can sustain observed levels of pneumococcal resistance to antibiotics in the pre-vaccination era using a stochastic, individual-based model. Our framework considers that within-host competition for co-colonization between resistant and susceptible strains can arise via pre-existing immunity (immunological competition) or intrinsic fitness differences due to resistance costs (ecological competition). We find that beyond stochasticity, host-population structure or movement at the between-host level, competition at the within-host level can explain observed variation in resistance frequencies. ConclusionIn a series of simulated scenarios informed by observed pneumococcal data in the European region, we demonstrate that ecological competition for co-colonization can explain much of the variation in co-existence observed at the country level in the pre-vaccination era. This work expands our understanding of how within-host pneumococcal competition facilitates the maintenance of antibiotic resistance in the pre-vaccination era. The demonstration of the effects of such underlying, often unmeasured competition-related components of pneumococcal dynamics improves our understanding of the mechanistic drivers for the emergence and maintenance of antibiotic resistance.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Flowers respond to pollinator sound within minutes by increasing nectar sugar concentration.

Can plants hear? That is, can they sense airborne sounds and respond to them? Here we show that Oenothera drummondii flowers, exposed to the playback sound of a flying bee or to synthetic sound-signals at similar frequencies, produced sweeter nectar within 3 minutes, potentially increasing the chances of cross pollination. We found that the flowers vibrated mechanically in response to these sounds, suggesting a plausible mechanism where the flower serves as the plants auditory sensory organ. Both the vibration and the nectar response were frequency-specific: the flowers responded to pollinator sounds, but not to higher frequency sound. Our results document for the first time that plants can rapidly respond to pollinator sounds in an ecologically relevant way. Sensitivity of plants to pollinator sound can affect plant-pollinator interactions in a wide range of ways: Plants could allocate their resources more adequately, focusing on the time of pollinator activity; pollinators would then be better rewarded per time unit; flower shape may be selected for its effect on hearing ability, and not only on signaling; and pollinators may evolve to make sounds that the flowers can hear. Finally, our results suggest that plants may be affected by other sounds as well, including antropogenic ones.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Determinants of high residual post-PCV13 pneumococcal vaccine type carriage in Blantyre, Malawi: a modelling study.

BackgroundIn November 2011, Malawi introduced the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) into the routine infant schedule. Four to seven years after introduction (2015-2018), rolling prospective nasopharyngeal carriage surveys were performed in the city of Blantyre. Carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccine serotypes (VT) remained higher than reported in developed countries, and VT impact was surprisingly asymmetric across age-groups. A dynamic transmission model was fit to survey data using a Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach, to obtain insights into the determinants of post-PCV13 age-specific VT carriage.\n\nResultsAccumulation of naturally acquired immunity with age and age-specific transmission potential were both key to reproducing the observed data. VT carriage reduction peaked sequentially over time, earlier in younger and later in older age-groups. Estimated vaccine efficacy (protection against carriage) was 66.87% (95% CI 50.49-82.26%), similar to previous estimates. Ten-year projected vaccine impact (VT carriage reduction) among 0-9 years old was lower than observed in other settings, at 76.23% (CI 95% 68.02-81.96%), with sensitivity analyses demonstrating this to be mainly driven by a high local force of infection.\n\nConclusionsWe have identified both vaccine-related and host-related determinants of post-PCV13 pneumococcal VT transmission in Blantyre with vaccine impact determined by age-related characteristics of the local force of infection. These findings are likely to be generalisable to other Sub-Saharan African countries in which PCV impact has been lower than desired, and have implications for the interpretation of post-PCV carriage studies and future vaccination programs.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

High residual prevalence of vaccine serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage 4 to 6 years after introduction of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Malawi: a prospective serial cross-sectional study

BackgroundThere are concerns that pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in sub-Saharan Africa sub-optimally interrupt vaccine-serotype (VT) carriage and transmission, thus limiting vaccine-induced direct and indirect protection. We assessed carriage in vaccinated children and unvaccinated populations targeted for indirect protection, between 4 and 7 years after Malawis November 2011 introduction of PCV13 using a 3+0 schedule.\n\nMethodsWe conducted sequential prospective nasopharyngeal carriage surveys between 2015 and 2018 among healthy PCV-vaccinated and PCV-unvaccinated children, and HIV-infected adults. VT and NVT carriage risk by age was analysed by non-linear regression.\n\nResultsAmong PCV-vaccinated children, there was a 24% relative reduction in carriage, from a mean 21.1% to 16.1%; 45% reduction among older PCV-unvaccinated children, from 27.5% to 15.2%; 41.4% reduction among adults, from 15.2% to 8.9%. Using carriage data from children 3.6 to 10 years of age, VT carriage probability declined with age, with a similar prevalence half-life among PCV-vaccinated (3.34 years) and PCV-unvaccinated (3.26 years) children.\n\nConclusionCompared to high-income settings, the 3+0 schedule in Malawi has led to a sub-optimal reduction in pneumococcal carriage prevalence. This is likely due to recolonisation of vaccinated children with waning vaccine-induced immunity, resulting in insufficient indirect protection of unvaccinated populations. Rigorous evaluation of strategies to augment vaccine-induced control of carriage, including alternative schedules and catch-up campaigns is required.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Increased frequency of travel may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic

The high frequency of modern travel has led to concerns about a devastating pandemic since a lethal pathogen strain could spread worldwide quickly. Many historical pandemics have arisen following pathogen evolution to a more virulent form. However, some pathogen strains invoke immune responses that provide partial cross-immunity against infection with related strains. Here, we consider a mathematical model of successive outbreaks of two strains - a low virulence strain outbreak followed by a high virulence strain outbreak. Under these circumstances, we investigate the impacts of varying travel rates and cross-immunity on the probability that a major epidemic of the high virulence strain occurs, and the size of that outbreak. Frequent travel between subpopulations can lead to widespread immunity to the high virulence strain, driven by exposure to the low virulence strain. As a result, major epidemics of the high virulence strain are less likely, and can potentially be smaller, with more connected subpopulations. Cross-immunity may be a factor contributing to the absence of a global pandemic as severe as the 1918 influenza pandemic in the century since.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

MVSE: an R-package that estimates a climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index.

BackgroundViruses such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies.\n\nResultsWe developed the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) software package for the R programming environment. The package estimates a suitability index based on a climate-driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) of a well established mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, suitability can be estimated for specific host and viral species, as well as different regions of the globe.\n\nConclusionsHere, we describe the background theory and biological interpretation of the new suitability index, as well as the implementation, basic functionality, research and educational potentials of the MVSE R-package. The package is freely available under the GPL 3.0 license.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Identifying Streptococcus pneumoniae genes associated with invasive disease using pangenome-based whole genome sequence typing

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a normal commensal of the upper respiratory tract but can also invade the bloodstream or CSF (cerebrospinal fluid), causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). In this study, we attempt to identify genes associated with IPD by applying a random forest machine-learning algorithm to whole genome sequence (WGS) data. We find 43 genes consistently associated with IPD across three geographically distinct WGS data sets of pneumococcal carriage isolates. Of these genes, 23 genes have previously shown to be directly relevant to IPD, while the other 18 are uncharacterized.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2018

Genomic and epidemiological monitoring of yellow fever virus transmission potential

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic that began in Dec 2016 in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes sp. vectors highlights the urgent need to monitor the risk of re-establishment of domestic YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age- and sex-distribution of human cases in Brazil is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally using a new protocol reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission restricted to Minas Gerais, followed in late 2016 by a rise in viral spillover to humans, and the southwards spatial expansion of the epidemic towards previously YFV-free areas. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real-time, contributing to the global strategy of eliminating future yellow fever epidemics.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Measuring mosquito-borne viral suitability and its implications for Zika virus transmission in Myanmar

INTRODUCTION: In South East Asia, mosquito-borne viruses (MBVs) have long been a cause of high disease burden and significant economic costs. While in some SEA countries the epidemiology of MBVs is spatio-temporally well characterised and understood, in others such as Myanmar our understanding is largely incomplete. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Here, we use a simple mathematical approach to estimate a climate-driven suitability index aiming to better characterise the intrinsic, spatio-temporal potential of MBVs in Myanmar. RESULTS: Results show that the timing and amplitude of the natural oscillations of our suitability index are highly informative for the temporal patterns of DENV case counts at the country level, and a mosquito-abundance measure at a city level. When projected at fine spatial scales, the suitability index suggests that the time period of highest MBV transmission potential is between June and October independently of geographical location. Higher potential is nonetheless found along the middle axis of the country and in particular in the southern corridor of international borders with Thailand. DISCUSSION: This research complements and expands our current understanding of MBV transmission potential in Myanmar, by identifying key spatial heterogeneities and temporal windows of importance for surveillance and control. We discuss our findings in the context of Zika virus given its recent worldwide emergence, public health impact, and current lack of information on its epidemiology and transmission potential in Myanmar. The proposed suitability index here demonstrated is applicable to other regions of the world for which surveillance data is missing, either due to lack of resources or absence of an MBV of interest.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Identification of an epitope of limited variability under strong immune selection in the haemagglutinin head domain of H1N1 influenza

Antigenic targets of influenza vaccination are currently seen to be polarised between (i) highly immunogenic (and protective) epitopes of high variability, and (ii) conserved epitopes of low immunogenicity. This requires vaccines directed against the variable sites to be continuously updated, with the only other alternative being seen as the artificial boosting of immunity to invariant epitopes of low natural efficacy. However, theoretical models suggest that the antigenic evolution of influenza is best explained by postulating the existence of highly immunogenic epitopes of limited variability. Here we report the identification of such an epitope of limited variability in the head domain of the H1 haemagglutinin protein. We show that the epitope mediates immunity to historical influenza strains not previously seen by a cohort of young children. Furthermore, vaccinating mice with these epitope conformations can induce immunity to all the human H1N1 influenza strains that have circulated since 1918. The identification of epitopes of limited variability offers a mechanism by which a universal influenza vaccine can be created; these vaccines would also have the potential to protect against newly emerging influenza strains.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Vaccination Can Drive An Increase In Frequencies Of Antibiotic Resistance Among Non-Vaccine Serotypes Of Streptococcus pneumoniae

The bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major public health concern, being responsible for more than 1.5 million deaths annually through pneumonia, meningitis and septicemia. In spite of vaccination efforts, pneumococcal carriage and disease remain high, since available vaccines target only a subset of serotypes and vaccination is often accompanied by a rise in non-vaccine serotypes. Epidemiological studies suggest that such a change in serotype frequencies is often coupled with an increase of antibiotic resistance among non-vaccine serotypes. Building on previous multi-locus models for bacterial pathogen population structure, we have developed a theoretical framework incorporating variation in serotype and antibiotic resistance to examine how their associations may be affected by vaccination. Using this framework, we find that vaccination can result in rapid increase in frequency of pre-existing resistant variants of non-vaccine serotypes due to the removal of competition from vaccine serotypes.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Key Issues Review: Evolution on rugged adaptive landscapes

Adaptive landscapes represent a mapping between genotype and fitness. Rugged adaptive landscapes contain two or more adaptive peaks: allele combinations that differ in two or more genes and confer higher fitness than intermediate combinations. How would a population evolve on such rugged landscapes? Evolutionary biologists have struggled with this question since it was first introduced in the 1930s by Sewall Wright.\n\nDiscoveries in the fields of genetics and biochemistry inspired various mathematical models of adaptive landscapes. The development of landscape models led to numerous theoretical studies analyzing evolution on rugged landscapes under different biological conditions. The large body of theoretical work suggests that adaptive landscapes are major determinants of the progress and outcome of evolutionary processes.\n\nRecent technological advances in molecular biology and microbiology allow experimenters to measure adaptive values of large sets of allele combinations and construct empirical adaptive landscapes for the first time. Such empirical landscapes have already been generated in bacteria, yeast, viruses, and fungi, and are contributing to new insights about evolution on adaptive landscapes.\n\nIn this Key Issues Review we will: (i) introduce the concept of adaptive landscapes; (ii) review the major theoretical studies of evolution on rugged landscapes; (iii) review some of the recently obtained empirical adaptive landscapes; (iv) discuss recent mathematical and statistical analyses motivated by empirical adaptive landscapes, as well as provide the reader with source code and instructions to implement simulations of adaptive landscapes; and (v) discuss possible future directions for this exciting field.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2016

Signatures of non-neutral processes within the population structure of Streptococcus pneumoniae

Populations of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) are typically structured into groups of closely related organisms or lineages, but it is not clear whether they are maintained by selection or neutral processes. Here, we attempt to address this question by applying a machine learning technique to SP whole genomes. Our results indicate that lineages evolved through immune selection on the groEL chaperone protein. The groEL protein is part of the groESL operon and enables a large range of proteins to fold correctly within the physical environment of the nasopharynx, thereby explaining why lineage structure is so stable within SP despite high levels of genetic transfer. SP is also antigenically diverse, exhibiting a variety of distinct capsular serotypes. Associations exist between lineage and capsular serotype but these can be easily perturbed, such as by vaccination. Overall, our analyses indicate that the evolution of SP can be conceptualized as the rearrangement of modular functional units occurring on several different timescales under different pressures: some patterns have locked in early (such as the epistatic interactions between groESL and a constellation of other genes) and preserve the differentiation of lineages, while others (such as the associations between capsular serotype and lineage) remain in continuous flux.

epidemiology↗