Biology subjects

Nowosad, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Nowosad, J..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2023

Evidence that recent climatic changes have expanded the potential geographic range of the Mediterranean fruit fly

The species distributions migration poleward and into higher altitudes in a warming climate is especially concerning for economically important insect pest species, as their introduction can potentially occur in places previously considered unsuitable for year-round survival. We explore the expansion of the climatically suitable areas for a horticultural pest, the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) Ceratitis capitata (Diptera, Tephritidae), with an emphasis on Europe and California. We reviewed and refined a published CLIMEX model for C. capitata, taking into consideration new records in marginal locations, with a particular focus on Europe. To assess the model fit and to aid in interpreting the meaning of the new European distribution records, we used a time series climate dataset to explore the temporal patterns of climate suitability for C. capitata from 1970 to 2019. At selected bellwether sites in Europe, we found statistically significant trends in increasing climate suitability, as well as a substantial northward expansion in the modelled potential range. In California, we also found a significant trend of northward and altitudinal expansion of areas suitable for C. capitata establishment. These results provide further evidence of climate change impacts on species distributions and the need for innovative responses to increased invasion threats.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

The kinetic Ising model encapsulates essential dynamics of land pattern change

A land pattern change represents a globally significant trend with implications for the environment, climate, and societal well-being. While various methods have been developed to predict land change, our understanding of the underlying change processes remains inadequate. To address this issue, we investigate the suitability of the 2D kinetic Ising model (IM), an idealized model from statistical mechanics, for simulating land change dynamics. We test the IM on a variety of diverse thematic contexts. Specifically, we investigate four sites characterized by distinct patterns, presumably driven by different physical processes. Each site is observed on eight occasions between 2001 and 2019. Given the observed pattern at times ti, i = 1, ..., 7, we find two parameters of the IM such that the model-evolved land pattern at ti+1 resembles the observed land pattern at that time. Our findings indicate that the IM produces approximate matches to the observed patterns in terms of layout, composition, texture, and patch size distributions. Notably, the IM simulations even achieve a high degree of cell-scale pattern accuracy in two of the sites. Nevertheless, the IM has certain limitations, including its inability to model linear features, account for the formation of new large patches, and handle pattern shifts.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Information-theoretical approach to measuring landscape complexity

ContextQuantitative grouping of similar landscape patterns is an important part of landscape ecology due to the relationship between a pattern and an underlying ecological process. One of the priorities in landscape ecology is a development of the theoretically consistent framework for quantifying, ordering and classifying landscape patterns.\n\nObjectiveTo demonstrate that the Information Theory as applied to a bivariate random variable provides a consistent framework for quantifying, ordering, and classifying landscape patterns.\n\nMethodsAfter presenting Information Theory in the context of landscapes, information-theoretical metrics were calculated for an exemplar set of landscapes embodying all feasible configurations of land cover patterns. Sequences and 2D parametrization of patterns in this set were performed to demonstrate the feasibility of Information Theory for the analysis of landscape patterns.\n\nResultsUniversal classification of landscape into pattern configuration types was achieved by transforming landscapes into a 2D space of weakly correlated information-theoretical metrics. An ordering of landscapes by any single metric cannot produce a sequence of continuously changing patterns. In real-life patterns, diversity induces complexity - increasingly diverse patterns are increasingly complex.\n\nConclusionsInformation theory provides a consistent, theory-based framework for the analysis of landscape patterns. Information-theoretical parametrization of landscapes offers a method for their classification.

ecology↗