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Biology subjects

Noble, D. W. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Noble, D. W. A..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

A flexible modelling framework for estimating thermal tolerance and sensitivity

Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent, intense and prolonged, making it urgent to predict how heat intensity and exposure duration combine to threaten organisms. Thermal death time (TDT) and thermal load sensitivity (TLS) models provide this link, but conventional two-stage analyses often discard uncertainty, mishandle censored or overdispersed data and limit inference. Here, we show how the four-parameter log-logistic model can recover TDT/TLS quantities, including thermal tolerance (CTmax), sensitivity (z), critical temperature (Tcrit), heat injury and survival, from one model. Simulations show the joint model reproduces classical estimates when two-stage assumptions hold and is more reliable when they fail. We introduce these workflows as Bayesian and frequentist R packages. Case studies across plant and animal taxa demonstrate this modelling framework can estimate group contrasts and predict survival from realistic field temperature-time series. This framework provides more robust inference and flexible tools for predicting organismal responses to extreme heat events.

ecology↗

Extreme Heat as the New Normal: A Methodological Roadmap for Behavior, Physiology, and Species Distributions

A defining feature of climate change is the increasing frequency, intensity, and severity of extreme weather events. Among them, extreme heat is recognized as a critical driver of ecological and evolutionary change. Intense heat episodes can exceed physiological limits, alter animal movement, restructure geographic ranges, and increase extinction risk more than gradual changes to mean temperatures. Yet links between extreme heat events and organismal biology remain limited, in part because definitions and metrics are not standardized, and user-friendly workflows and guides are lacking for many biologists. We present a methodological roadmap, with reproducible code, for integrating extreme heat into studies of behavior, physiology, biophysical ecology, species distribution models (SDMs), and population dynamics. First, we provide standardized computational approaches to define and quantify extreme heat. Second, we fit species distribution models for California quail (Callipepla californica) that include an extreme heat metric and showcase improved predictions of habitat suitability, particularly at range edges. Third, we compute biophysical simulations to quantify exposure to thermal stress in Sleepy lizards (Tiliqua rugosa) across distinct macro- and microclimates. Finally, accounting for temporal autocorrelation in temperature profiles in population simulation models, we show that clustered heat extremes--missed by averages--can increase the risk of population collapse. As extreme heat events become more common, incorporating their dynamics is essential for understanding ecological and evolutionary change, designing experiments across species geographic ranges, and supporting conservation in a rapidly warming world. Together, these case studies illustrate a reproducible, organism-informed roadmap to integrate extreme heat into predictions of ecological impacts and inference across levels of biological organization under ongoing climate change.

ecology↗

Interpreting prediction intervals and distributions for decoding biological generality in meta-analyses

Despite the importance of identifying predictable regularities for knowledge transfer across contexts, the generality of ecological and evolutionary findings is yet to be systematically quantified. We present the first large-scale evaluation of generality using new metrics. By focusing on biologically relevant study levels, we show that generalization is not uncommon. Overall, 20% of meta-analyses will produce a non-zero effect 95% of the time in future replication studies with a 70% probability of observing meaningful effects in study-level contexts. We argue that the misconception that generalization is exceedingly rare is due to conflating within-study and between-study variances in ecological and evolutionary meta-analyses, which results from focusing too much on total heterogeneity (the sum of within-study and between-study variances). We encourage using our proposed approach to elucidate general patterns underpinning ecological and evolutionary phenomena.

ecology↗

Fluctuating salinity during development impacts fish productivity

Climate change is elevating salinity levels in many freshwater systems, and more erratic rainfall is increasing variation in salinity. Consequently, many species now experience more extreme developmental environments. Resultant shifts in developmental trajectories could change key life history traits that persist into adulthood. To date, however, how variation in salinity affects the life histories of freshwater species has been neglected despite its implications for fisheries. We ran a large-scale experiment with a global pest, the mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki), and manipulated the salinity experienced by juveniles: freshwater (0{per thousand}), stable salinity (10{per thousand}) or fluctuating salinity (0-20{per thousand}; mean = 10 {per thousand}). Fish developing in stable, high salinity grew faster and matured earlier, albeit with a decline in male telomeres and female gut development. Stable high salinity resulted in larger adult body size in females, but not males, which increased female fecundity. Conversely, fluctuations in salinity induced fish to grow more slowly and lowered female fecundity. Crucially, several of the long-term effects of salinity fluctuations were sex-specific, more adversely affecting females than males. We highlight that environmental variability alters an organisms vulnerability to stressors, with implications that should be considered if we wish to understand the impact of climate change on population dynamics.

ecology↗

Male harm suppresses female fitness to affect the dynamics of adaptation and evolutionary rescue

One of the most pressing questions we face as biologists is to understand how climate change will affect the evolutionary dynamics of natural populations and how these dynamics will in turn affect population recovery. Increasing evidence shows that sexual selection favours population viability and local adaptation. However, sexual selection can also foster sexual conflict and drive the evolution of male harm to females. Male harm is extraordinarily widespread and has the potential to suppress female fitness and compromise population growth, yet we currently ignore its net effects across taxa, or its effects on local adaptation and evolutionary rescue. We conducted a comparative meta-analysis to quantify the impact of male harm on female fitness and found an overall negative effect of male harm on female fitness. Negative effects seem to depend on proxies of sexual selection, increasing in species with larger sexual size dimorphism and strong sperm competition. We then developed theoretical models to explore how male harm affects adaptation and evolutionary rescue. We show that, when sexual conflict depends on local adaptation, population decline is reduced, but at the cost of slowing down genetic adaptation. This trade-off suggests that eco-evolutionary feedbacks on sexual conflict can act like a double-edge sword, reducing extinction risk by buffering the demographic costs of climate change, but delaying genetic adaptation. However, variation in the mating system and male harm type can mitigate this trade-off. Our work shows that male harm has widespread negative effects on female fitness and productivity, identifies potential mechanistic factors underlying variability in such costs across taxa, and underscores the importance of male harm on the demographic and evolutionary processes that impact how species adapt to environmental change. Impact summaryFor species to persist in the face of climate change, adaptation needs to be fast enough to prevent extinction. If population decline is too abrupt, adaptation will be less likely to promote recovery, leading to extinction. Therefore, numerous studies have sought to determine how species can adapt and escape extinction. Sexual selection can promote genetic adaptation, but often has a by-product, sexual conflict, that promotes adaptations beneficial for one sex and detrimental to the other. Such is the case of male adaptations that increase male reproduction by harming females (male harm). Male harm is widespread and has been shown to decrease female and population productivity in some species, facilitating extinction. Furthermore, there is increasing evidence that the degree of male harm to females depends on environmental changes and how well males are adapted to them. However, we ignore how strong the effects of sexual conflict across taxa are, or how ecological feedback on sexual conflict may affect the rate of adaptation and population recovery. Here, we first conducted a meta-analysis to quantify the effect of male harm on female fitness and show, across taxa, that there is an overall negative effect that seems to be dependent on proxies of sexual selection. Then, we used a series of theoretical models to show that, although eco-evolutionary feedback on sexual conflict can limit population decline, this comes at the cost of slowing down the rate of adaptation and population recovery. Our study suggests that understanding how quick environmental changes affect sexual conflict can increase our understanding of how populations adapt and recover in the face of climate change.

evolutionary biology↗

Behavioural adaptations in egg laying ancestors facilitate evolutionary transitions to live birth

Live birth is a key innovation that has evolved from egg laying ancestors over 100 times in reptiles. However, egg-laying lizards and snakes often possess preferred body temperatures that are lethal to developing embryos, which should select against egg retention. Here, we demonstrate that thermal mismatches between mothers and offspring are widespread across the squamate phylogeny. This mismatch is resolved by gravid females adjusting their body temperature towards the thermal optimum of embryos. Importantly, phylogenetic reconstructions suggest this thermoregulatory behaviour evolved in egg-laying species prior to the evolution of live birth. Maternal thermoregulatory behaviour therefore bypasses the constraints imposed by a slowly evolving thermal physiology and has likely been a key facilitator in the repeated transitions to live birth.

evolutionary biology↗

Planned missing data design: stronger inferences, increased research efficiency and improved animal welfare in ecology and evolution

O_LIEcological and evolutionary research questions are increasingly requiring the integration of research fields along with larger datasets to address fundamental local and global scale problems. Unfortunately, these agendas are often in conflict with limited funding and a need to balance animal welfare concerns.\nC_LIO_LIPlanned missing data design (PMDD), where data are randomly and deliberately missed during data collection, is a simple and effective strategy to working under greater research constraints while ensuring experiments have sufficient power to address fundamental research questions. Here, we review how PMDD can be incorporated into existing experimental designs by discussing alternative design approaches and evaluating how data imputation procedures work under PMDD situations.\nC_LIO_LIUsing realistic examples and simulations of multilevel data we show how a variety of research questions and data types, common in ecology and evolution, can be aided by using a PMDD with data imputation procedures. More specifically, we show how PMDD can improve statistical power in detecting effects of interest even with high levels (50%) of missing data and moderate sample sizes. We also provide examples of how PMDD can facilitate improved animal welfare and potentially alleviate research costs and constraints that would make endeavours for integrative research challenging.\nC_LIO_LIPlanned missing data designs are still in their infancy and we discuss some of the difficulties in their implementation and provide tentative solutions. Nonetheless, data imputation procedures are becoming more sophisticated and more easily implemented and it is likely that PMDD will be an effective and powerful tool for a wide range of experimental designs, data types and problems in ecology and evolution.\nC_LI

ecology↗