Biology subjects

Nguyen, V. K.

Publications and source records attributed to Nguyen, V. K..

6 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: data descriptions and epidemic modelling

From August to November 2017, Madagascar endured an outbreak of plague. A total of 2417 cases of plague were confirmed, causing a death toll of 209. Public health intervention efforts were introduced and successfully stopped the epidemic at the end of November. The plague, however, is endemic in the region and occurs annually, posing the risk of future outbreaks. To understand on the plague transmission, we collected real-time data from official reports, described the outbreaks characteristics, and estimated transmission parameters using statistical and mathematical models. The pneumonic plague epidemic curve exhibited multiple peaks, coinciding with sporadic introductions of new bubonic cases. Optimal climate conditions for rat flea to flourish were observed during the epidemic. Estimate of the plague basic reproduction number during the large wave of the epidemic was high, ranging from 5-7 depending on model assumptions. The incubation and infection period for bubonic and pneumonic plague were 4.3 and 3.4 days and 3.8 and 2.9, respectively. Parameter estimation suggested that even with a small fraction of the population exposed to infected rat fleas (1/10000) and a small probability of transition from a bubonic case to a secondary pneumonic case (3%), the high human-to-human transmission rate can still generate a large outbreak. Controlling rodent and fleas can prevent new index cases, but managing human-to-human transmission is key to prevent large-scale outbreaks.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Neuraminidase inhibitors - is it time to call it a day?

Stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) such as oseltamivir and zanamivir is part of a global effort to be prepared for an influenza pandemic. However, the contribution of NAIs for treatment and prevention of influenza and its complications is largely debatable. Here, we developed a transparent mathematical modelling setting to analyse the impact of NAIs on influenza disease at within-host and population level. Analytical and simulation results indicate that even assuming unrealistically high efficacies for NAIs, drug intake starting on the onset of symptoms has a negligible effect on an individual's viral load and symptoms score. Increasing NAIs doses does not provide a better outcome as is generally believed. Considering Tamiflu's pandemic regimen for prophylaxis, different multiscale simulation scenarios reveal modest reductions in epidemic size despite high investments in stockpiling. Our results question the use of NAIs in general to treat influenza as well as the respective stockpiling by regulatory authorities.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Multiscale Model Within-host and Between-host for Viral Infectious Diseases

Multiscale models possess the potential to uncover new insights into infectious diseases. Here, a rigorous stability analysis of a multiscale model within-host and between-host is presented. The within-host model describes virus replication and the respective immune response while disease transmission is represented by a simple susceptible-infected (SI) model.\n\nThe bridge of within-to between-host is by considering transmission as a function of the viral load of the within-host level. Consequently, stability and bifurcation analyses were developed coupling the two basic reproduction numbers [Formula] and [Formula]for the within- and the between-host subsystems, respectively. Local stability results for each subsystem, such as a unique stable equilibrium point, recapitulate classical approaches to infection and epidemic control.\n\nUsing a Lyapunov function, global stability of the between-host system was obtained. A main result was the derivation of the [Formula] as a general increasing function of [Formula]. Numerical analyses reveal that a Michaelis-Menten form based on the virus is more likely to recapitulate the behavior between the scales than a form directly proportional to the virus. Our work contributes basic understandings of the two models and casts light on the potential effects of the coupling function on linking the two scales.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Multiscale Modeling To Explore Ebola Vaccination Strategies

BackgroundTransmission in epidemics of infectious diseases is characterized by a high level of subject-specific elements. These include heterogeneous infection conditions, time-dependent transmission potential, and age-dependent contact structure. These insights are often lost in epidemic models using population data. Here we submit an approach that can capture these details, paving the way for studying epidemics in a more mechanistic and realistic way.\n\nMethodsUsing experimental data, we formulated mathematical models of a pathogen infection dynamics from which we can simulate its transmission potential mechanistically. The models were then embedded in our implement of an age-specific contact network structure that allows to express all elements relevant to the transmission process. This approach is illustrated here with an example of Ebola virus (EBOV).\n\nResultsThe results showed that within-host infection dynamics can capture EBOVs transmission parameters as good as approaches using population data. Population age-structure, contact distribution and patterns can also be captured with our network generating algorithm. This framework opens vast opportunities for the investigations of each element involved in the epidemic process. Here, estimating EBOVs reproduction number revealed a heterogeneous pattern among age-groups, prompting questions on current estimates which are not adjusted for this factor. Assessments of mass vaccination strategies showed that a time window from five months before to one week after the start of an epidemic appeared to be effective. Noticeably, compared to a non-intervention scenario, a low vaccination coverage of 33% could reduce number of cases by ten to hundred times as well as lessen the case-fatality rate.\n\nConclusionsThis is the first effort coupling directly within-host infection model into an age-structured epidemic network model, adding more realistic elements in simulating epidemic processes. Experimental data at the within-host infection are shown able to capture upfront key parameters of a pathogen; the applications of this approach will give us more time to prepare for potential epidemics. Population of interest in epidemic assessments could be modeled with an age-specific contact network without exhaustive amount of data. Further assessments and adaptations for different pathogens and scenarios are underway to explore multilevel aspects in infectious diseases epidemics.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Parameter Estimation In Mathematical Models Of Viral Infections Using R

In recent years, mathematical modeling approaches have played a central role to understand and to quantify mechanisms in different viral infectious diseases. In this approach, biological-based hypotheses are expressed via mathematical relations and then tested based on empirical data. The simulation results can be used to either identify underlying mechanisms, provide predictions on infection outcomes, or evaluate the efficacy of a treatment.\n\nConducting parameter estimation for mathematical models is not an easy task. Here we detail an approach to conduct parameter estimation and to evaluate the results using the free software R. The method is applicable to influenza virus dynamics at different complexity levels, widening experimentalists capabilities in understanding their data. The parameter estimation approach presented here can be also applied to other viral infections or biological applications.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2017

Windows of opportunity for Ebola virus infection treatment and vaccination

Ebola virus (EBOV) infection causes a high death toll, killing a high proportion of EBOV infected patients within 7 days. Comprehensive data on EBOV infection are very fragmented, hampering efforts in developing therapeutics and vaccines against EBOV. Under this circumstance, mathematical models become valuable resources to explore potential controlling strategies. In this paper, we employed experimental data of EBOV-infected nonhuman primates (NHPs) to construct a mathematical framework for determining windows of opportunity for treatment and vaccination. Considering a prophylactic vaccine based on recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus expressing the EBOV glycoprotein (VSV-EBOV), we found that the time window can be subject-specific, but vaccination could be protective if a subject is vaccinated during a period from one week to four months before infection. For the case of a therapeutic vaccine based on monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), a single dose might resolve the invasive EBOV replication even it was administrated as late as four days after infection. Our mathematical models can be used as building blocks for developing therapeutic and vaccine modalities as well as for evaluating public health intervention strategies in outbreaks. Future laboratory experiments will help to validate and refine the estimates of the windows of opportunity proposed here.

systems biology↗