Biology subjects

Naugle, D. E.

Publications and source records attributed to Naugle, D. E..

15 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Exclusion of fire and grazing does not reduce annual grass invasion in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem

Disturbance is widely recognized as a catalyst of invasion, but growing evidence suggests even protected communities are susceptible to severe infestation. We used k[i]pukas--naturally isolated patches of minimally-disturbed vegetation surrounded by lava flows--as a large-scale natural experiment to test the long-term biotic resistance of protected sagebrush ecosystems threatened by Bromus tectorum and other invasive annual grasses. Employing a robust causal inference approach combining matching with regression adjustment, we compared protected communities within k[i]pukas to otherwise similar communities exposed to contemporary disturbance regimes. Despite their near-total protection from fire and livestock grazing, k[i]pukas were extensively invaded by annual grasses (18.9 {+/-} 0.28% cover), with abundance comparable to or slightly exceeding disturbed sites (16.7 {+/-} 0.29% cover). These findings challenge the notion that protection from disturbance confers effective long-term resistance to invasion, instead demonstrating that invaders can establish, proliferate, and drive ecosystem transformation where favorable abiotic conditions prevail. Our findings reveal the limits of passive protection as a conservation strategy, suggesting active management may be necessary to prevent ecosystem degradation by aggressive invaders.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Shifting Resilience: Trends and Predictors of Mesic Resource Productivity in Western U.S. Rangelands

Mesic resources, the late-season herbaceous vegetation found in riparian areas and wet meadows, provide disproportionately important forage and habitat across western U.S. rangelands, yet their response to climatic variability and anthropogenic influences remains poorly understood. Using a 40-year Landsat time series (1984-2024), we quantified trends in late-season productivity (NDVI) across 4.5 million hectares of the sagebrush biome and applied random forest models to distinguish between temporal and spatial predictors of mesic resource productivity. We identified a fundamental shift in how mesic resources respond to drought: from 1984 to 2004, mesic productivity was strongly correlated with drought severity (Palmer Drought Severity Index, R{superscript 2} = 0.92), but this relationship weakened substantially in the next two decades (2005-2024; R{superscript 2} = 0.28), during which time productivity increased despite persistent aridity. Temporal modeling identified rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations as the strongest predictor of this shift, consistent with enhanced plant water-use efficiency under CO2 fertilization. Spatially, large agricultural valley floodplains act as anthropogenic refugia, sustaining productive mesic resources through flood irrigation and subsequent groundwater recharge into late summer. These findings suggest that human water management and physiological shifts in vegetation are currently buffering mesic systems against meteorological drought throughout U.S. rangelands. However, this apparent buffering is spatially heterogeneous and may mask vulnerability to groundwater depletion, shifts in precipitation regimes, and woody encroachment. Sustaining these vital ecosystems will require conservation approaches that go beyond climate monitoring to include balanced management considering both agricultural and ecological water needs and constraints.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Beyond Uplands: Integrating Riparian Areas into Sagebrush Conservation Design for a More Resilient West

Riparian and mesic habitats are essential biological hotspots in the American West, supporting 80% of wildlife, yet they are often assessed in isolation from surrounding uplands. To address this, we developed a framework that complements the Sagebrush Conservation Design to incorporate these habitats into broader landscape conservation planning. By analyzing 40 years of riparian vegetation data alongside sagebrush ecosystems, we classified watersheds into three actionable management tiers based on water availability and vegetation health. This prioritization is operationalized through the Mesic Analysis Platform, an interactive tool that identifies stream reaches with floodplain disconnection as key targets for restoration. Notably, the greatest restoration potential exists on private lands, where 63-65% of identified mesic habitats are found. This framework provides a practical strategy to integrate social feasibility with ecological priority, fostering the multi-jurisdictional partnerships vital to connecting water resources with the broader sagebrush ecosystem.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

A 0.6-meter resolution canopy height and structure model for the contiguous United States

Above-ground vertical structure is a critical variable for ecosystem monitoring, carbon accounting, and land management. However, the high cost and limited coverage of airborne lidar hinder its widespread application. To address this, we developed NAIP-CHM, a 0.6-meter resolution canopy height and structure model (CHM) covering the contiguous United States, derived from National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial imagery. Unlike forestry-specific models that exclude human-made features, NAIP-CHM characterizes the full vertical structure of the landscape including vegetation, buildings, and infrastructure. We utilized a U-Net convolutional neural network with attention mechanisms and environmental conditioning, training and validating the model with a peer-reviewed, publicly available dataset of 22.8 million co-registered NAIP imagery and lidar-derived CHM pairs, with stratified sampling to ensure robustness in open-canopy ecosystems. The model achieved a pixel-wise root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.28 meters and an r2 of 0.87. Forested sites alone produced an r2 of 0.82 and RMSE of 3.82 meters. We provide the dataset, source code, and cloud-based tools to enable broad application without requiring specialized computational resources.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Estimating rangeland fractional cover and canopy gap size class with Sentinel-2 imagery

Rangelands are extensive ecosystems, providing important ecosystem services while undergoing continuous change. As a result, improved monitoring technologies can help better characterize vegetation change. Satellite remote sensing has proven effective in this regard, tracking vegetation dynamics at broad and fine scales. We leveraged the spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of Sentinel-2 satellites to estimate fractional cover and canopy gap across rangelands of the western United States. We produced annual, 10 m spatial resolution estimates of fractional cover and canopy gap size class for years 2018 to 2024. Fractional cover estimates include that of common plant functional types (annual forb and grass, bareground, littler, perennial forb and grass, shrub, tree) and select genera (including invasive annual grass species, pinyon-juniper species, and sagebrush species); canopy gap size classes include gap sizes 25 to 50, 51 to 100, 101 to 200, and greater than 200 cm. We make these data available as Cloud Optimized GeoTIFFs, organized as 75x75 km tiles covering the 17 western states of the United States.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

A Spatial Prioritization of Conifer Management to Defend and Grow Sagebrush Cores

Sagebrush ecosystems across the western U.S. are in decline due to numerous threats, including expansion of coniferous woodlands and forests. The interagency Sagebrush Conservation Design effort recently quantified sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI) to map remaining core sagebrush areas (relatively intact and functional sagebrush ecosystems) and understand spatial and temporal patterns of change relative to primary threats. This work identified conifer expansion as the second leading cause of decline in sagebrush ecological integrity biome wide. Here, we sought to create a spatial prioritization of conifer management that maximizes return-on-investment to defend and grow core sagebrush areas. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used to incorporate a series of biome-level inputs including SEI, invasive annual grass cover and risk, structural connectivity, and conifer cover and expansion vulnerability into a single prioritization based on collaborative expert input. Our analysis identifies priority areas for conifer management across the sagebrush biome, simulates conifer treatments based on those priorities, and estimates potential changes in SEI as a result of targeted treatment. At a broad scale, we found that the highest priority areas for conifer management were largely located east of the Rocky Mountains. This represents a departure from recent landscape-level trends conifer management efforts in sagebrush systems, which were focused primarily pinyon-juniper expansion in the Great Basin. A majority (52%) of the highest priority areas are managed by the Bureau of Land Management, followed by a large proportion (26%) of priority areas located on privately-owned land - particularly in Wyoming and Montana. Targeting simulated conifer treatments using our prioritization resulted in higher within-core targeting percentages ([≥]93%) than business-as-usual efforts (23.8%), which would result in a four- to eight-fold reduction in the time to treat priority areas within cores. Finally, we demonstrate that these simulated treatments, targeted with our prioritization, have the capacity to improve SEI in and around treatment areas. This work provides an actionable path to "Defend the Core" as outlined by the Sagebrush Conservation Design effort by helping conservationists more efficiently address conifer expansion in and around core sagebrush areas.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Beneficial 'inefficiencies' of western ranching: Flood-irrigated hay production sustains wetland systems by mimicking historic hydrologic processes

Ranching in the American West has long relied on riparian ecosystems to grow grass-hay to feed livestock in winter and during drought. Producers seasonally flood grasslands for hay production using stream diversions and low-tech flood-irrigation on riparian floodplains. Inundation mimics natural processes that sustain riparian vegetation and recharge groundwater. The recent doubling in use of more efficient irrigation approaches, such as center-pivot sprinklers, threatens to accelerate climate change impacts by unintentionally decoupling more inefficient, traditional practices that sustain riparian systems. To address this information gap, we developed an exhaustive spatial inventory of grass-hay production and combined it with monthly surface water distributions modeled from satellite data. Surface water data were classified by wetland hydroperiod and used to estimate the proportion of wetlands supported by grass-hay production in the Intermountain West, USA. Elevation and proportion of grass-hay relative to other irrigated lands were enumerated to examine differences in their positions and abundance within landscapes. Lastly, we overlaid the delineated grass-hay wetlands with LANDFIRE pre-Euro-American Settings layer to quantify the efficacy of flood irrigation in mimicking the conservation of historical riparian processes. Findings suggest that inefficient grass-hay irrigation mirrored the timing of natural hydrology, concentrating [~]93% of flooded grasslands in historical riparian ecosystems, affirming that at large scales, this ranching practice, in part, mimics floodplain processes sustaining wetlands and groundwater recharge. Despite representing only 2.5% of irrigated lands, grass-hay operations supported a majority (58%)of temporary wetlands, a rare and declining habitat for wildlife in the Intermountain West. Tolerance for colder temperatures confined grass-hay production to upper watershed reaches where higher value crops are constrained by growing degree days. This novel understanding of grass-hay agroecology highlights the vital role of working ranches in the resilience and stewardship of riparian systems.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Flood-irrigated agriculture mediates climate-induced wetland scarcity for summering sandhill cranes in western North America

Documenting a species extent is often the first step in understanding its ecology and is critical to informing conservation planning. Basic information about species distributions is lacking in many regions of the world, forcing natural resource managers to answer complex ecological questions with incomplete data. Information gaps are compounded by climate change, driving resource bottlenecks that can act as new and powerful demographic constraints on fauna. Here, we reconstructed greater sandhill crane (Antigone canadensis tabida) summering range in western North America using movement data from 120 GPS-tagged individuals to determine how landscape composition shaped their distributions. Landscape variables developed from remotely sensed data were combined with bird locations using cloud computing and machine learning to model distribution probabilities. Additionally, land-use practices and land ownership were summarized within summer range as a measure of use dependence. Wetland variables identified as important predictors of bird distributions were also evaluated in a post hoc analysis using satellite imagery to measure the long-term (1984-2022) effects of climate-driven surface water drying. Wetlands and associated agricultural practices accounted for 1.2% of the summer range but were key predictors of greater sandhill crane occurrence. Bird distributions were patterned primarily by riparian floodplains that concentrated water, wetlands, and flood-irrigated agriculture in otherwise arid and semi-arid landscapes. Findings highlighted the critical role of private lands in greater sandhill crane ecology as they accounted for 78% of predicted distributions. Wetland drying observed in portions of the range from 1984 to 2022 represented an emerging ecological bottleneck that could limit future greater sandhill crane summer range. Study outcomes provide novel insight into the significance of ecosystem services provided by flood-irrigated agriculture that supported nearly 60% of the wetland resources used by birds. Findings suggest greater sandhill cranes function as an umbrella species for agroecology and climate change adaptation strategies seeking to reduce agricultural water use through improved efficiency while also maintaining distinct flood-irrigation practices supporting greater sandhill cranes and other wetland-dependent wildlife. To inform conservation design, we make our wetland and sandhill crane summering distributions publicly available as interactive web-based mapping tools.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Mapping Tree Cover Expansion in Montana, U.S.A. Rangelands using High-Resolution Historical Aerial Imagery

Worldwide, trees are colonizing rangelands with high conservation value. The introduction of trees into grasslands and shrublands causes large-scale changes in ecosystem structure and function, which have cascading impacts to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and agricultural economies. Satellites are increasingly being used to track tree cover at continental to global scales, but these methods can only provide reliable estimates of change over recent decades. Given the slow pace of tree cover expansion, remote sensing techniques that can extend this historical record provide critical insights into the magnitude of environmental change. Here, we estimate conifer expansion in rangelands of the northern Great Plains, United States, North America, using historical aerial imagery from the mid-20th century and modern aerial imagery. We analyzed 19.3 million hectares of rangelands in Montana, USA, using a convolutional neural network (U-Net architecture) and cloud computing to detect tree features and tree cover change. Our bias-corrected results estimate 3.0 {+/-} 0.2 million hectares of conifer tree cover expansion in Montana rangelands, which accounts for 15.4% of the total study area. Overall accuracy was greater than 91%, but producer accuracy was lower than user accuracy (0.60 vs. 0.88). Nonetheless, the omission errors were not spatially correlated, indicating that the method is reliable for estimating the spatial extent of tree cover expansion. Using the model results in conjunction with historical and modern imagery allows for effective communication of the scale of tree expansion while overcoming the recency effect caused by shifting environmental baselines.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Regional context for balancing sagebrush- and woodland-dependent songbird needs with targeted pinyon-juniper management in the sagebrush biome

Tree expansion among historic grassland and shrubland systems is a global phenomenon, which results in dramatic influences on ecosystem processes and wildlife populations. In the western US, pinyon-juniper woodlands have expanded by as much as six-fold among sagebrush steppe landscapes since the late nineteenth century, with demonstrated negative impacts to the behavior, demography, and population dynamics of species that rely on intact sagebrush rangelands. Notably, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are unable to tolerate even low conifer cover, which can result in population declines and local extirpation. Removing expanding conifer cover has been demonstrated to increase sage grouse population growth rates and sagebrush-obligate songbird abundance. However, advances in restoring sagebrush habitats have been met with concern about unintended impacts to species that rely on conifer woodlands, notably the pinyon jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus) whose population declines are distinctive among birds breeding in pinyon-juniper woodlands. We modeled indices to abundance in relation to multi-scale habitat features for nine songbirds reliant on both sagebrush and pinyon-juniper woodlands for breeding. Findings demonstrate that targeted sage grouse habitat restoration under the Sage Grouse Initiative is not at odds with protection of pinyon jay populations. Rather, conifer management has largely occurred in the northern sagebrush ecosystem where models suggest that past cuts likely benefit Brewers sparrow and sage thrasher while avoiding pinyon jay habitat. Extending our spatial modeling further south beyond the sagebrush biome could better equip conservationists with more comprehensive decision-support, particularly where pinyon jays face additional pressures of drought-induced tree mortality.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Where there's smoke, there's fuel: predicting Great Basin rangeland wildfire

Wildfires are a growing management concern in western US rangelands, where invasive annual grasses have altered fire regimes and contributed to an increased incidence of catastrophic large wildfires. Fire activity in arid, non-forested ecosystems is thought to be largely controlled by interannual variation in fuel amount, which in turn is controlled by antecedent weather. Thus, long-range forecasting of fire activity in rangelands should be feasible given annual estimates of fuel quantity. Using a 32 yr time series of spatial data, we employed machine learning algorithms to predict the relative probability of large (>405 ha) wildfire in the Great Basin based on fine-scale annual and 16-day estimates of cover and production of vegetation functional groups, weather, and multitemporal scale drought indices. We evaluated the predictive utility of these models with a leave-one-year-out cross-validation, building spatial hindcasts of fire probability for each year that we compared against actual footprints of large wildfires. Herbaceous aboveground biomass production, bare ground cover, and long-term drought indices were the most important predictors of burning. Across 32 fire seasons, 88% of the area burned in large wildfires coincided with the upper 3 deciles of predicted fire probabilities. At the scale of the Great Basin, several metrics of fire activity were moderately to strongly correlated with average fire probability, including total area burned in large wildfires, number of large wildfires, and maximum fire size. Our findings show that recent years of exceptional fire activity in the Great Basin were predictable based on antecedent weather-driven growth of fine fuels and reveal a significant increasing trend in fire probability over the last three decades driven by widespread changes in fine fuel characteristics.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Biome-scale woody encroachment threatens conservation potential and sustainability of U.S. rangelands

O_LIRangelands of the United States provide ecosystem services that benefit society and rural economies. Native tree encroachment is often overlooked as a primary threat to rangelands due to the slow pace of tree cover expansion and the positive public perception of trees. Still, tree encroachment fragments these landscapes and reduces herbaceous production, thereby threatening habitat quality for grassland wildlife and the economic sustainability of animal agriculture. C_LIO_LIRecent innovations in satellite remote sensing permit the tracking of tree encroachment and the corresponding impact on herbaceous production. We analyzed tree cover change and herbaceous production across the western United States from 1990 to 2019. C_LIO_LIWe show that tree encroachment is widespread in U.S. rangelands; absolute tree cover has increased by 50% (77,323 km2) over 30 years, with more than 25% (684,852 km2) of U.S. rangeland area experiencing tree cover expansion. Since 1990, 302 {+/-} 30 Tg of herbaceous biomass have been lost. Accounting for variability in livestock biomass utilization and forage value reveals that this lost production is valued at between $4.1 - $5.6 billion U.S. dollars. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications: The magnitude of impact of tree encroachment on rangeland loss is similar to conversion to cropland, another well-known and primary mechanism of rangeland loss in the U.S. Prioritizing conservation efforts to prevent tree encroachment can bolster ecosystem and economic sustainability, particularly among privately-owned lands threatened by land-use conversion. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

The elevational ascent and spread of exotic annual grasslands in the Great Basin, USA

AimIn the western US, sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) and salt desert shrublands are rapidly transitioning to communities dominated by exotic annual grasses, a novel and often self-reinforcing state that threatens the economic sustainability and conservation value of rangelands. Climate change is predicted to directly and indirectly favor annual grasses, potentially pushing transitions to annual grass dominance into higher elevations and north-facing aspects. We sought to quantify the expansion of annual grass-dominated vegetation communities along topographic gradients over the past several decades. LocationOur analysis focused on rangelands among three ecoregions in the Great Basin of the western US, where several species of exotic annual grasses are widespread among shrub and perennial grass-dominated vegetation communities. MethodsWe used recently developed remote sensing-based rangeland vegetation data to produce yearly maps of annual grass-dominated vegetation communities spanning the period 1990-2020. With these maps, we quantified the rate of spread and characterized changes in the topographic distribution (i.e., elevation and aspect) of areas transitioning to annual grass dominance. ResultsWe documented more than an eight-fold increase in annual grass-dominated area (to >77,000 km2) occurring at an average rate of >2,300 km2 yr-1. In 2020, annual grasses dominated one fifth (19.8%) of Great Basin rangelands. This rapid expansion is associated with a broadening of the topographic niche, with widespread movement into higher elevations and north-facing aspects. Main conclusionsAccelerated, strategic intervention is critically needed to conserve the fragile band of rangelands being compressed between annual grassland transitions at lower elevations and woodland expansion at higher elevations.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Annual and 16-day rangeland production estimates for the western United States

Rangeland production is a foundational ecosystem service and resource upon which livestock, wildlife, and people depend. Capitalizing on recent advancements in the use of remote sensing data across rangelands we provide estimates of herbaceous rangeland production from 1986-2019 at 16-day and annual time steps and 30m resolution across the western United States. A factorial comparison of this dataset and three national scale datasets is presented, and we highlight a multiple lines of evidence approach when using production estimates in decision-making. Herbaceous aboveground biomass at this scale and resolution provides critical information applicable for management and decision-making, particularly in the face of annual grass invasion and woody encroachment of rangeland systems. These readily available data remove analytical and technological barriers allowing immediate utilization for monitoring and management.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Improving Landsat predictions of rangeland fractional cover with multitask learning and uncertainty

O_LIOperational satellite remote sensing products are transforming rangeland management and science. Advancements in computation, data storage, and processing have removed barriers that previously blocked or hindered the development and use of remote sensing products. When combined with local data and knowledge, remote sensing products can inform decision making at multiple scales. C_LIO_LIWe used temporal convolutional networks to produce a fractional cover product that spans western United States rangelands. We trained the model with 52,012 on-the-ground vegetation plots to simultaneously predict fractional cover for annual forbs and grasses, perennial forbs and grasses, shrubs, trees, litter, and bare ground. To assist interpretation and to provide a measure of prediction confidence, we also produced spatiotemporal-explicit, pixel-level estimates of uncertainty. We evaluated the model with 5,780 on-the-ground vegetation plots removed from the training data. C_LIO_LIModel evaluation averaged 6.3% mean absolute error and 9.6% root mean squared error. Evaluation with additional datasets that were not part of the training dataset, and that varied in geographic range, method of collection, scope, and size, revealed similar metrics. Model performance increased across all functional groups compared to the previously produced fractional product. C_LIO_LIThe advancements achieved with the new rangeland fractional cover product expand the management toolbox with improved predictions of fractional cover and pixel-level uncertainty. The new product is available on the Rangeland Analysis Platform (https://rangelands.app/), an interactive web application that tracks rangeland vegetation through time. This product is intended to be used alongside local on-the-ground data, expert knowledge, land use history, scientific literature, and other sources of information when making interpretations. When being used to inform decision-making, remotely sensed products should be evaluated and utilized according to the context of the decision and not be used in isolation. C_LI

ecology↗