Biology subjects

Mutebi, J.-P.

Publications and source records attributed to Mutebi, J.-P..

10 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Habitat Type and Seasonal Variation as Drivers of Mosquito Proliferation in Urban Aquatic Microhabitats

Aedes aegypti is the primary vector species for dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, and is adapted to thrive in urban environments. Their proximity to human populations and the adverse health outcomes associated with arboviral infections make mosquito control essential for reducing the risk of outbreaks and disease spread. Source reduction and larvicide applications are central components of mosquito control because they reduce adult mosquito emergence by targeting immature life stages. Therefore, our objective was to identify urban aquatic habitats used by Ae. aegypti and assess temporal variation in their contribution to immature mosquito production. To distinguish habitat use from habitat productivity, we considered larval presence as an indicator of oviposition or early-stage survival and pupal presence as evidence that a habitat supported development through most of the immature life cycle. Between July 2018 and October 2019, 2,482 inspections in Miami-Dade County, Florida, identified 2,756 aquatic habitats from which 19,466 Ae. aegypti larvae and 3,648 pupae were collected. Unique temporal trends were observed for both larval and pupal presence and abundance at county and habitat resolutions. County-level trends showed the highest larval and pupal production during Summer and the lowest pupal production during Winter. However, temporal patterns differed across habitats, supporting a context-dependent interpretation of habitat conduciveness, in which the same habitat type may support different levels of immature mosquito production depending on local environmental conditions. Our results show that habitats with frequent larval occurrence did not consistently have high pupal presence, indicating that larval presence does not necessarily reflect habitat productivity. Control strategies that prioritize habitats repeatedly associated with pupal production by season may improve year-round mosquito control, outbreak preparedness, and resource allocation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Temporal Variation in Mosquito Vector Population Dynamics in Urban Areas

Locally acquired arboviral infections are an increasing public health concern in the United States. Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus, vectors of dengue virus and West Nile virus, respectively, are established in regions where local transmission has been reported. Seasonal variation in mosquito abundance affects vector density, human-vector contact, and arbovirus transmission risk. The aim of this study is to investigate seasonal variations in Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics in Miami-Dade County, Florida; Maricopa County, Arizona; and Clark County, Nevada. Monthly relative abundance, average mosquitoes collected per trap-night, normalized abundance ratios, and seasonal-trend decomposition were used to evaluate species- and location-specific seasonal patterns. Mosquito population dynamics differed by species and location. In Miami-Dade County, the two species showed seasonal turnover, with Cx. quinquefasciatus peaking during winter and spring and Ae. aegypti peaking during summer. In Maricopa and Clark counties, both species peaked primarily between August and September. Species dominance also differed by site, with Ae. aegypti more abundant than Cx. quinquefasciatus in Maricopa County and Cx. quinquefasciatus more abundant than Ae. aegypti in Clark and Miami-Dade counties. Seasonal decomposition showed that Ae. aegypti peaked earlier in Miami-Dade County than in Maricopa and Clark counties, whereas Cx. quinquefasciatus showed a spring peak in Miami-Dade County and bimodal seasonal patterns in Maricopa and Clark counties. These results suggest that mosquito population dynamics are species- and location-specific and support the use of local surveillance data to guide the timing of mosquito control and arbovirus preparedness.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Short-term forecasts of Aedes aegypti relative abundance to enhance mosquito control situational awareness

Conventional mosquito surveillance typically relies on contemporaneous data, making it challenging to anticipate future vector surges. To support proactive vector management, this study evaluates a multi-model forecasting framework designed to generate probabilistic 1-to 4-week-ahead forecasts of Aedes aegypti relative abundance per trap night. The framework was validated using multi-year surveillance data across four US jurisdictions spanning varied environments (from subtropical to temperate and arid). We found that an ensemble approach aggregating statistical and machine learning models generally achieved the best performance across all locations and forecast horizons. Relative forecast performance improved as the forecast horizon extended from 1 to 4 weeks ahead. The most challenging data to forecast were primarily restricted to low mosquito activity periods or atypical population peaks with unusual timing or magnitude. While full integration into routine vector management workflows represents a long-term process requiring operational adaptation, this work advances forecasting research and establishes a baseline for translating these approaches into real-time applications for public health authorities, with downstream effects in mitigating the risks of mosquito-borne diseases.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Evaluating Field Trial Designs for Genetically Modified Mosquito Interventions: An In-Silico Simulation Approach

Mosquito control strategies based on the mass release of modified males, such as genetically modified mosquitoes (GMMs), aim to suppress wild populations by impairing reproduction. Evaluating these interventions requires resource-intensive field trials, but a lack of standardized implementation practices, particularly regarding release ratios of modified males to wild female mosquitoes and trial timing, has led to variable outcomes. This studys objective is to propose a modeling tool for the "in-silico" simulation of trial designs before field implementation. To this aim, we developed an agent-based model of mosquito population dynamics. As a case study, we calibrated the model using 2019-2023 Aedes aegypti surveillance data from Miami-Dade County, Florida, and compared two GMM trial designs as illustrative examples. Our results show that depending on the implementation choices (e.g., trial start date and duration, release ratio), trials yield highly variable outcomes. For example, changing the start date while fixing all other implementation details can lead to effectiveness between 50% and 90%. Our findings suggest that "in-silico" simulation is a valuable tool for improving trial protocol design, allowing stakeholders to test strategies and reduce outcome uncertainty before committing to a fieldwork experiment.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus populations in Miami-Dade County, Florida

Millions of United States residents live where arbovirus vectors like Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus are abundant, and the risk of local outbreaks is amplified by viruses introduced via infected travelers. This threat is well-established: West Nile virus is already endemic in most of the country, and locally acquired dengue outbreaks are occurring with an increasing frequency. Therefore, identifying temporal trends in mosquito abundance and areas conducive to their proliferation is essential for public health preparedness and response planning. This study aims to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus populations in Miami-Dade County, Florida. We analyzed eight years (2017-2024) of mosquito surveillance data from 308 mosquito traps operating across the county. We characterized the spatiotemporal distribution of female Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus and identified persistent areas of high mosquito abundance (hotspots) using local spatial analysis. A total of 399,418 Ae. aegypti and 1,250,879 Cx. quinquefasciatus were collected. The two species showed distinct and opposing seasonal patterns: Ae. aegypti abundance peaked during the summer wet season, whereas Cx. quinquefasciatus peaked in the winter dry season. Our analysis identified spatially consistent hotspots for both species, with some traps classified as hotspots in over half the years studied. The consistent seasonality of the two species and detection of hotspot areas across years provides operational value for long-term monitoring, evaluation of control interventions, and targeted resource allocation. As arboviruses continue to pose a public health risk in urban environments such as Miami-Dade County, the ability to anticipate and respond to vector population fluctuations is instrumental for effective prevention and control.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Gentrification influences mosquito community composition at neighborhood and county levels in Miami-Dade County, Florida

Gentrification is occurring across urban areas in the United States and poses threats to marginalized and vulnerable communities through displacement, disruption of social networks, and worsening health outcomes. Gentrification is both a social and environmental process, affecting socioecological factors responsible for driving mosquito abundance and community composition. Our study aims to investigate how gentrification in Miami-Dade County, Florida, affects the alpha and beta diversity of mosquito communities. We relied on data from the Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division from 2020 to 2024, paired with data from the American Community Survey, to analyze changes in mosquito community composition based on gentrification status. Our results show that gentrification, measured by changes in home value, age, race, and education, significantly affected mosquito richness and community composition at county and neighborhood levels. Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti, primary arbovirus vector species, were more abundant in gentrifying areas, representing 31% of community composition variation compared to non-gentrifying areas. These findings have important implications for improving mosquito-borne disease preparedness and response in urban settings.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Extensive variation and strain-specificity in dengue virus susceptibility among African Aedes aegypti populations

African populations of the mosquito Aedes aegypti are usually considered less susceptible to infection by human-pathogenic flaviviruses than globally invasive populations found outside Africa. Although this contrast has been well documented for Zika virus (ZIKV), it is unclear to what extent it is true for dengue virus (DENV), the most prevalent flavivirus of humans. Addressing this question is complicated by substantial genetic diversity among DENV strains, most notably in the form of four genetic types (DENV1 to DENV4), that can lead to genetically specific interactions with mosquito populations. Here, we carried out a continent-wide survey of DENV susceptibility using a panel of field-derived Ae. aegypti colonies from across the African range of the species and a colony from Guadeloupe, French West Indies as non-African reference. We found considerable variation in the ability of African Ae. aegypti populations to acquire and replicate a panel of six DENV strains spanning the four DENV types. Although African Ae. aegypti populations were generally less susceptible than the reference non-African population from Guadeloupe, in several instances some African populations were equally or more susceptible than the Guadeloupe population. Moreover, the relative level of susceptibility between African mosquito populations depended on the DENV strain, indicating genetically specific interactions. We conclude that unlike ZIKV susceptibility, there is no clear-cut dichotomy in DENV susceptibility between African and non-African Ae. aegypti. DENV susceptibility of African Ae. aegypti populations is highly heterogeneous and largely governed by the specific pairing of mosquito population and DENV strain. Author summaryAfrican populations of the mosquito Aedes aegypti are usually thought to be less likely to get infected by flaviviruses compared to Ae. aegypti mosquitoes found outside Africa. While this has been well-demonstrated for Zika virus, it is not clear if the same is true for dengue virus, which is the most common flavivirus in humans. Studying this is complicated by the strain diversity of dengue virus, including four main genetic types, potentially causing different interactions. In this study, we compared several mosquito populations and found that, in general, African mosquitoes were less likely to get infected by dengue virus compared to mosquitoes from outside Africa. However, in some cases, African mosquitoes were just as or even more likely to get infected. The specific strain of dengue virus also influenced how likely African mosquitoes were to get infected, showing that the relationship between African mosquitoes and dengue virus is complex.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2022

Diel activity patterns of vector mosquito species in the urban environment: Implications for vector control strategies

Florida and Texas continue to be afflicted by mosquito-borne disease outbreaks such as dengue and West Nile virus disease and were the most affected states by the Zika outbreak of 2016-2017. Mathematical models have been widely used to study the population dynamics of mosquitoes as well as to test and validate the effectiveness of arbovirus outbreak responses and mosquito control strategies. The objective of this study is to assess the diel activity of mosquitoes in Miami-Dade, Florida and Brownsville, Texas, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated adulticide treatments on local mosquito populations. To assess variations in the diel activity patterns, mosquitoes were collected hourly for 96 hours once a month from May through November 2019 in Miami-Dade and Brownsville, Texas. We then performed a PERMANOVA followed by the SIMPER method to assess which species contributed the most to the observed differences. Finally, we used a mathematical model to simulate the population dynamics of 5 mosquito vector species to evaluate the effectiveness of the simulated adulticide applications. A total of 14,502 mosquitoes comprising 17 species were collected in Brownsville and 10,948 mosquitoes comprising 19 species were collected in Miami-Dade. Aedes aegypti was the most common mosquito species collected every hour in both cities and peaking in abundance in the morning and the evening. Our modeling results indicate that the effectiveness of adulticide applications varied greatly depending on the hour of the treatment. Overall, 9 PM was the best time for adulticide applications targeting all mosquito vector species in Miami-Dade and Brownsville. Our results indicate that the timing of adulticide spraying interventions should be carefully considered by local authorities based on the ecology of mosquito species in the focus area.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Vector Mosquito Species in Maricopa County, Arizona: The highest West Nile virus disease incidence area in the United States in 2021

Mosquito-borne diseases are a major global public health concern and mosquito surveillance systems are essential for the implementation of effective mosquito control strategies. The objective of our study is to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species in Maricopa County, AZ from 2011 to 2021, and to identify the hotspot areas for West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis Encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission in 2021. The Maricopa County Mosquito Control surveillance system utilizes BG-Sentinel and EVS-CDC traps throughout the entire urban and suburban areas of the county. We estimated specific mosquito species relative abundance per unit area using the Kernel density estimator in ArcGIS 10.2. We calculated the distance between all traps in the surveillance system and created a 4 km buffer radius around each trap to calculate the extent to which each trap deviated from the mean number of Cx. quinquefasciatus and Cx. tarsalis collected in 2021. Our results show that vector mosquito species are widely distributed and abundant in the urban areas of Maricopa County. A total of 691,170 Culex quinquefasciatus, 542,733 Culex tarsalis, and 292,305 Aedes aegypti were collected from 2011 to 2022. The relative abundance of Ae. aegypti was highly seasonal peaking in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Culex quinquefasciatus, on the other hand, was abundant throughout the year with several regions consistently yielding high numbers of mosquitoes. Culex tarsalis was abundant but it only reached high numbers in well-defined areas bordering natural and rural areas. We also detected high levels of heterogeneity in the risk of WNV and SLEV transmission to humans disregarding traps geographical proximity. The well-defined species-specific spatiotemporal and geographical patterns found in this study can be used to inform vector control operations.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Climate and urbanization drive mosquito preference for humans

The majority of mosquito-borne illness is spread by a few mosquito species that have evolved to specialize in biting humans, yet the precise causes of this behavioral shift are poorly understood. We address this gap in the arboviral vector Aedes aegypti. We first characterize the behaviour of mosquitoes from 27 sites scattered across the species ancestral range in sub-Saharan Africa, revealing previously unrecognized diversity in female preference for human versus animal odor. We then use modelling to show that this diversity can be almost fully predicted by two ecological factors - dry season intensity and human population density. Finally we integrate this information with whole genome sequence data from 345 individual mosquitoes to identify a single underlying ancestry component linked to human preference, with genetic changes concentrated in a few key chromosomal regions. Our findings strongly suggest that human-biting in this important disease vector originally evolved as a by-product of breeding in human-stored water in areas where doing so provided the only means to survive the long, hot dry season. Our model also predicts that changes in human population density are likely to drive future mosquito evolution. Rapid urbanization may drive a shift to human-biting in many cities across Africa by 2050.

evolutionary biology↗