Muslimova, D. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2022

Rank concordance of polygenic indices: Implications for personalised intervention and gene-environment interplay

Polygenic indices (PGIs) are increasingly used to identify individuals at high risk of developing diseases and disorders and are advocated as a screening tool for personalised intervention in medicine and education. The performance of PGIs is typically assessed in terms of the amount of phenotypic variance they explain in independent prediction samples. However, the correct ranking of individuals in the PGI distribution is a more important performance metric when identifying individuals at high genetic risk. We empirically assess the rank concordance between PGIs that are created with different construction methods and discovery samples, focusing on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and educational attainment (EA). We find that the rank correlations between the constructed PGIs vary strongly (Spearman correlations between 0.17 and 0.94 for CVD, and between 0.40 and 0.85 for EA), indicating highly unstable rankings across different PGIs for the same trait. Simulations show that measurement error in PGIs is responsible for a substantial part of PGI rank discordance. Potential consequences for personalised medicine in CVD and research on gene-environment (GxE) interplay are illustrated using data from the UK Biobank.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2021

Stop Meta-Analyzing, Start Instrumenting: Maximizing the Predictive Power of Polygenic Scores

Measurement error in polygenic indices (PGIs) attenuates the estimation of their effects in regression models. While this measurement error shrinks with growing Genome-wide Association Study (GWAS) sample sizes, the marginal returns to bigger sample sizes are rapidly decreasing. We analyze and compare two alternative approaches to reduce measurement error: Obviously Related Instrumental Variables (ORIV) and the PGI Repository Correction (PGI-RC). Through simulations, we show that both approaches outperform the typical (meta-analysis based) PGI in terms of bias and root mean squared error. Between families, the PGI-RC performs slightly better than ORIV, unless the prediction sample is very small (N < 1, 000), or when there is considerable assortative mating. Within families, ORIV is the default choice since the PGI-RC is not available in this setting. We verify the empirical validity of the simulations by predicting educational attainment (EA) and height in a sample of siblings from the UK Biobank. We show that applying ORIV between families increases the standardized effect of the PGI by 12% (height) and by 22% (EA) compared to a meta-analysis-based PGI, yet remains slightly below the PGI-RC estimates. Furthermore, within-family ORIV regression provides the tightest lower bound for the direct genetic effect, increasing the lower bound for the direct genetic effect on EA from 0.14 to 0.18, and for height from 0.54 to 0.61 compared to a meta-analysis-based PGI.

genetics↗