Biology subjects

Moura, M. R.

Publications and source records attributed to Moura, M. R..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2023

Climate change should drive mammal defaunation in tropical dry forests

Human-induced climate change has intensified negative impacts on socioeconomic factors, the environment, and biodiversity, including changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in global average temperatures. Drylands are particularly at risk, with projections suggesting they will become hotter, drier, and less suitable for a significant portion of their species, potentially leading to mammal defaunation. We use ecological niche modelling and community ecology biodiversity metrics to examine potential geographical range shifts of non-volant mammal species in the largest Neotropical dryland, the Caatinga, and evaluate impacts of climate change on mammal assemblages. According to projections, 85% of the mammal species will lose suitable habitats, with one quarter of species projected to completely lose suitable habitats by 2060. This will result in a decrease in species richness for more than 90% of assemblages and an increase in compositional similarity to nearby assemblages (i.e., reduction in spatial beta diversity) for 70% of the assemblages. Small-sized mammals will be the most impacted and lose most of their suitable habitats, especially in highlands. The scenario is even worse in the eastern half of Caatinga where habitat destruction already prevails, compounding the threats faced by species there. While species-specific responses can vary with respect to dispersal, behaviour, and energy requirements, our findings indicate that climate change can drive mammal assemblages to biotic homogenisation and species loss, with drastic changes in assemblage trophic structure. For successful long-term socioenvironmental policy and conservation planning, it is critical that findings from biodiversity forecasts are considered.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

A phylogeny-informed characterization of global tetrapod traits addresses data gaps and biases

Tetrapods (amphibian, reptiles, birds and mammals) are model systems for global biodiversity science, but continuing data gaps, limited data standardisation, and ongoing flux in taxonomic nomenclature constrain integrative research on this group and potentially cause biased inference. We combined and harmonised taxonomic, spatial, phylogenetic, and attribute data with phylogeny-based multiple imputation to provide a comprehensive data resource (TetrapodTraits 1.0.0) that includes values, predictions, and sources for body size, activity time, micro- and macrohabitat, ecosystem, threat status, biogeography, insularity, environmental preferences and human influence, for all 33,281 tetrapod species covered in recent fully sampled phylogenies. We assess gaps and biases across taxa and space, finding that shared data missing in attribute values increased with taxon-level completeness and richness across clades. Prediction of missing attribute values using multiple imputation revealed substantial changes in estimated macroecological patterns. These results highlight biases incurred by non-random missingness and strategies to best address them. While there is an obvious need for further data collection and updates, our phylogeny--informed database of tetrapod traits can support a more comprehensive representation of tetrapod species and their attributes in ecology, evolution, and conservation research.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Pervasive impacts of climate change on the woodiness and ecological generalism of dry forest plant assemblages

Climate emergency is a significant threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but species will not be equally affected. In summing up different species responses at the local scale, we can assess changes in the species quantity and composition of biotic assemblages. Here we investigated climate change driven variation in species richness and spatial beta-diversity using modelled distributions of 2,841 plant species in Caatinga, the largest dry forest region of South America. More than 99% of plant assemblages were projected to lose species by 2060, with biotic homogenisation [boxh] the decrease in spatial beta-diversity forecasted in 40% of the Caatinga. Replacement of narrow-range woody species by wide-range non-woody ones should impact at least 85% of Caatinga plant assemblages. The future increase in aridity will change patterns of woodiness and ecological generalism of tropical dry forest plant assemblages, and ultimately erode ecosystem services linked to biomass productivity and carbon storage.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Shortfalls and opportunities in terrestrial vertebrate species discovery

Meter-resolution imagery of our world and myriad biodiversity records collected through citizen scientists and automated sensors belie the fact that much of the planets biodiversity remains undiscovered. Conservative estimates suggest only 13 to 18% of all living species may be known at this point 1-4, although this number could be as low as 1.5% 5. This biodiversity shortfall 6,7 strongly impedes the sustainable management of our planets resources, as the potential ecological and economic relevance of undiscovered species remains unrecognized 8. Here we use model-based predictions of terrestrial vertebrate species discovery to estimate future taxonomic and geographic discovery opportunities. Our model identifies distinct taxonomic and geographic unevenness in future discovery potential, with greatest opportunities for amphibians and reptiles and for Neotropical and IndoMalayan forests. Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar, and Colombia emerge as holding greatest discovery opportunities, with a quarter of future species descriptions expected there. These findings highlight the significance of international support for taxonomic initiatives and the potential of quantitative models to aid the discovery of species before their functions are lost in ignorance 8. As nations draw up new policy goals under the post-2020 global biodiversity framework, a better understanding of the magnitude and geography of this known unknown is critical to inform goals and priorities 9 and to minimize future discoveries lost to extinction10.

ecology↗