Minderman, J. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2021

Models as games: a novel approach for 'gamesourcing' parameter data and communicating complex models

1O_LIModels have become indispensable tools in conservation science in the face of increasingly rapid loss of biodiversity through anthropogenic habitat loss and natural resource exploitation. In addition to their ecological components, accurately representing human decision-making processes in such models is vital to maximise their utility. This can be problematic as modelling complexity increases, making them challenging to communicate and parameterise. C_LIO_LIGames have a long history of being used as science communication tools, but are less widely used as data collection tools, particularly in videogame form. We propose a novel approach to (1) aid communication of complex social-ecological models, and (2) "gamesource" human decision-making data, by explicitly casting an existing modelling framework as an interactive videogame. C_LIO_LIWe present players with a natural resource management game as a front-end to a social-ecological modelling framework (Generalised Management Strategy Evaluation, GMSE). Players actions replace a model algorithm making management decisions about a population of wild animals, which graze on crops and can thus lower agricultural yield. A number of non-player agents (farmers) respond through modelled algorithms to the players management, taking actions that may affect their crop yield as well as the animal population. Players are asked to set their own management goal (e.g. maintain the animal population at a certain level or improve yield) and make decisions accordingly. Trial players were also asked to provide any feedback on both gameplay and purpose. C_LIO_LIWe demonstrate the utility of this approach by collecting and analysing game play data from a sample of trial plays, in which we systematically vary two model parameters, and allowing trial players to interact with the model through the game interface. As an illustration, we show how variations in land ownership and the number of farmers in the system affects decision-making patterns as well as population trajectories (extinction probabilities). C_LIO_LIWe discuss the potential and limitations of this model-game approach in the light of trial player feedback received. In particular, we highlight how a common concern about the game framework (perceived lack of "realism" or relevance to a specific context) are actually criticisms of the underlying model, as opposed to the game itself. This further highlights both the parallels between games and models, as well as the utility of model-games to aid in communicating complex models. We conclude that videogames may be an effective tool for conservation and natural resource management, and that although they provide a promising means to collect data on human decision-making, it is vital to carefully consider both external validity and potential biases when doing so. C_LI

scientific communication and education↗

bioRxiv2021

Intervene or wait? Modelling the timing of intervention in conservation conflicts adaptive management under uncertainty.

The timing of biodiversity managers interventions can be critical to the success of conservation, especially in situations of conflict between conservation objectives and human livelihood, i.e., conservation conflicts. Given the uncertainty associated with complex social-ecological systems and the potentially irreversible consequences of delayed action for biodiversity and livelihoods, managers tend to simply intervene as soon as possible by precaution. However, refraining from intervening when the situation allows it can be beneficial, notably by saving critical management resources. Here, we introduce a strategy for managers to decide, based on monitoring, whether intervention is required or if waiting is possible. This study evaluates the performance of this waiting strategy compared to a strategy of unconditional intervention at every opportunity. We built an individual-based model of conservation conflict between a manager aiming to conserve an animal population and farmers aiming to maximize yield by protecting their crop from wildlife damage. We then simulated a budget-constrained adaptive management over time applying each strategy, while accounting for uncertainty around population dynamics and around decision-making of managers and farmers. Our results showed that when the decision for the manager to intervene was based on a prediction of population size trajectory, the waiting strategy performed at least as well as unconditional intervention while also allowing managers to save resources by avoiding unnecessary interventions. Under difficult budgetary constraints on managers, this waiting strategy ensured as high yields as unconditional intervention while significantly improving conservation outcomes by compensating managers lack of resources with the benefits accrued over waiting periods. This suggests that waiting strategies are worth considering in conservation conflicts, as they can facilitate equitable management with a more efficient use of management resources, which are often limiting in biodiversity conservation.

ecology↗